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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

idecline

Apr.4-6 West Coast Storm/ Pacific Jet...what next?

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Posted (edited)

...the first couple of little systems to come through California this week were pretty much just minor nuisance storms(except for the giant downpour in Chico, CA)...Friday's storm looks a bit more significant, with widespread rain and snow in the Sierra's...severe weather to the east?

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...the GOES shows the trough of LP over California right now, very little forcing, so light showers into Thu./Thursday night should see the edges of the next vigorous storm moving in somtime Friday with winds and rain into Saturday morning...from there some are saying HP, maybe a week or so of warm temperate weather in area...then all bets are off, as the extended Pacific jet may make inroads late next week...

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...the 48hr OPC Pacific map shows a quickly maturing storm aiming at the West Coast...although it appears that the low will jettison more to the north(in line with climatology) before moving east...to idee this seems to set a temporary buckle (HP ridge) in the atmosphere, sending storms over the top until(if/when) the purported extended Pacific jet arrives...if this is in line with the RRWT type of thought then this would be around the 10th or 11th of April give or take a few days...:classic_wink:P_96hrsfc.thumb.gif.a3c7db34903a11de77885adc920ed668.gif

...no recent MJO activity or El Nino 'hook-up' appear to be available for 'augmentation of storms, and climatology suggests that the Pacific jet jogs more north as seasons progress...the 500mb long range outputs will give a clue soon...

Edited by idecline
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Snow pack in the Sierras is amazing with more to come and beneficial rains

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
214 PM PDT Wed Apr 3 2019

...Hazardous mountain travel expected over 6000 feet Thursday
through late Friday night...

.Snow is expected to begin Thursday afternoon increasing in
intensity during the evening hours. Heavy snow and gusty winds are
forecast Friday afternoon which will lead to hazardous travel over
the mountains. Snow will begin to diminish during the late evening
and overnight hours Friday night into Saturday morning.

CAZ014-063-068-069-041130-
/O.NEW.KSTO.WS.A.0011.190405T0000Z-190406T1200Z/
Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-
Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Northern Lake County-
Western Plumas County/Lassen Park-
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
214 PM PDT Wed Apr 3 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Periods of heavy snow possible. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, including during the afternoon and evening hours on
  Friday. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with
  localized amounts up to 2 and a half feet possible.

* WHERE...Western Plumas County/Lassen Park and West Slope
  Northern Sierra Nevada.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Friday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

WeatherStory2.pngWeatherStory3.pngWeatherStory4.png

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...thanks to PlanetMaster for remaining 'vigilant' in his retro-fitting my initial post to fit current conditions...our West Coast storm was mostly contained to the northern part of the region...yet the jet from the EPAC still seems to be very strong...a brief ridge of HP is forecast to shunt storms to the north...and OPC 48hr shows the high building in rather strongly...yet the the OPC 500mb 96 hour view offers the 'compromise of 'inside slider' storms coming over the top of the ridge to bring energy into the CONUS at a very low altitude for April...this would set up a strong chance for continuing inclement weather into the Plains and a higher chance for severe weather along the southern Plains and up into the Ohio valley the next few weeks...California may stay drieir, yet the caveat is the proposed giant HP shown onthe surface maps has not materialized in several years to the extent that these maps are showing...as idee has noticed in the last few years 'our California' ridging has been shunted slightly south and west each spring allowing a bit of upper level flow to sneak south, rather than going 'over the top' into Canada(which is much more common in spring)...anomalous HP over Western Canada has really been a big player in the 'disruption' of what many consider 'normal' for this time of year..or is this just one of many patterns of weather that we have not quite figured out as well as we think we can forecast...perhaps the 'patterns' are not written in stone, as some 'lazy' weather enthusiasts and 'forecasters' seem to believe in...the weather across the globe is all interconnected and as such, we should be in awe of it, not angry at it...

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...this is just to show the potentialities for the next few days...and how the storms in the West are very important to what comes next across the CONUS...thanks ...idee

 

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