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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook


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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/04/2018 in all areas

  1. 35 points
    I am posting this for the entire community to read which includes every registered user of this site titles aside. It’s been a very busy past week and it has been hard to keep up but there have been several incidents that have been brought to my attention that need to be addressed. I mentioned the word ‘community’ in my opening sentence and that is the whole basis for this announcement. We are a community who have a great love for the weather and like a community when there is unrest or problems the community works together to resolve issues but everyone is always welcomed and never turned away. That is the kind of site I am creating and it is the ONLY way we can be successful and set ourselves apart from the others. We have made friends who are like family here and that’s what I always hoped for this site. Every single person on this planet is welcome here no matter where they come from. No one should ever feel unwelcome or uncomfortable being on the site. Staffs job is to make sure of this and that the few who like to stir the pot, there is always a few, are kept in check. Staff should NEVER be involved in inciting or feeding into such non sense which in turns opens the door for others to jump on. As staff we are charged with keeping the peace and making sure the sites focus, weather, remains the focus. Now I know we joke around and have fun, with the frustration of the weather it is essential to lighten the mood sometimes, otherwise we would all be pulling our hair out. That’s fine and adds to the charm of the site but when that fun turns into cruelty the line is crossed and it has to be dealt with. My ultimate dream for the site is to have a place all can go to have fun and enjoy their time here. Lately that hasn't been the case which is unfortunate. As the creator and owner of the site I put full blame on myself and take full responsibility for not being aware of these situations. Although I am very busy with my work and hadn't had much time lately I know that’s not an excuse, I have to be held accountable as do others. The last thing I want to ever read on this site is that staff has a double standard because that goes against everything I believe in. Admittedly we have a very tough job and we are all volunteers pledging every second of our free time to make this site the best it can be. I love the staff we have put together, I respect them all, and they are all without doubt dedicated to the site. I couldn't ask for a better bunch of people, I consider them all to be my friends. I cannot even begin to tell you all how difficult the job is here sometimes. Besides our own fever to want to talk about the weather, we have to be aware of what’s happening with hundreds of posts being added in just minutes. It isn't easy and it can also be very stressful dealing with so many different attitudes and personalities. But as staff we have to put aside our feelings for any individual and be 100% impartial and fair across the board. It is very hard at times to keep one's composure, we are only human, and we make mistakes and let our emotions guide our thoughts like anyone else. When we do make these mistakes we have to accept our failures and make a positive out of them by being better at what we do. I never want to have to read a message from a member or staff asking to delete their account or that they are leaving because of some foolishness between other members. It cannot and will not happen here. I never want to see any registered member here bash another member for their opinion no matter how much you disagree. Get used to the idea that others have their own individual opinions and thoughts, I never want to see other members be made fun of or bullied to the point of being cruel it will not be tolerated in the least bit I never want to see any member feel uncomfortable or unwelcome at this site because it isn't representative of what we are trying to do here A staff member mentioned it will never be perfect there will always be some mayhem and that is a factual statement, I totally agree. But if we understand that than we are in a better position to control it, keep it in check. That is the job of staff and I feel we have failed in that aspect lately. It is not a bad thing simply an admission that we make mistakes too and so now what are we going to do to rectify and change the atmosphere for the better of the site? Admitting one is wrong isn't always easy but it always brings a sense of relief when it is accomplished. The integrity of the staff directly influences the integrity and reputation of the site. It is our duty to be true to what this site is about and how can we make sure it is placed at the highest of standards. I don’t want to be another weather forum where people say the staff there are assholes or a site where people say the members there are nasty. if that’s what you are looking for than you know what’s out there. Members have overwhelmingly pledged their financial support to our unique site, they believe in us and it is a great feeling to me personally the support that has been given. It’s therefore my responsibility to make sure that support is appreciated by creating a site that is like a second home to us all and that, my friends, is what this community is all about. I would like to put this past couple weeks behind us and move on. Instead of holding grudges or anger inside, lets clear the slate. Learn from this, and acknowledge that we all sometimes lose it but can come back strong a better person, wiser, and a bit more life experienced. Warnings that were given out the past week will all remain intact. In addition myself receives a 5 point warning for not performing staff duties to the best of my abilities @UTSwiinii receives a 5 point warning for not performing staff duties to the best of his abilities @jdrenken receives a 5 point warning for not performing staff duties to the best of his abilities I have also given myself an additional 5 points as a reminder of what my responsibility is here. I will wear it as a badge of honor knowing I am not always right and make mistakes. A note about warnings to all that get upset when receiving one. They do not mean you are a bad person, we don’t hate you, and in reality it isn't a negative at all. Look at them like reminders that you made a mistake, maybe didn't follow the rules and go off topic, or whatever. It’s not a big deal it is a simple way we can let members know that the site has rules and is moderated that’s all. So please don’t fly off the deep end if you get a warning it doesn't mean anything other than welcome to the community. In addition to the staff warning we have all been in communication over the weekend and I hope my comments to them as well as the ones here make it clear what this site is about. And to the members this includes staff, give us a break once in a while too. We are not monsters or out to get you we want what you want which is a community we can all call home. Thanks
  2. 25 points
    I took this this morning and posted a short video in today's Prince Harry Tablesetter thread. I know this is OT, but no one will see it there and, sorry, I just thought it was REALLY cool. Taken about 50' away at best. Been following them for a couple years now, but don't always get good pics b/c the sun is usually behind them blinding me. Clove Lake, Sussex, NJ at the end of my block
  3. 21 points
    On a serious note, and I am speaking as an emergency manager right now. Anyone who is in the path of this ice storm, you must prepare. There is the possibility of over 1.5" of ice somewhere and any of you in the potential path of this must be ready. To do so I suggest Fill up you gas tanks. Be prepared to be without heat, hot water and electricity for up to two weeks Fill up on bottles water and keep it some place interior and insulated so it does not freeze. If you lose heat.. Keep the water running to prevent frozen pipes (at least during the initial after freeze) If the house becomes too cold, use a vehicle for heat. Run it for ten to fifteen min and warm up. Then shut off for thirty min. Continue this cycle as necessary. Ensure you are not enclosed in your garage (Carbon Monoxide kills). Be prepared to not be able to travel for several days. Ensure you have an adequate supply of medication. Keep your cellular phone charged and use it sparingly when there is no electricity. You can use your vehicle to charge your phone. Have warm clothes handy. This is a potentially disastrous situation. Please remain vigilant, you and you alone are responsible for your safety. Page topper. No joke. Read above and take note for your safety
  4. 20 points
    Busiest travel time of the year is just about two weeks away. Christmas falls on a Tuesday this year so the weekend prior will most definitely be a highly traveled few days. There appears to be a possibility that there could be a disturbance to monitor. A few organic signals key in on the period between the 22-26th the BSR Depiction: A GOM low pressure rises up on the westward side of the apps into a cold HP which forces it’s transfer to the coast south of Delmarva here is the current 32kNam analysis and forecast of the transfer seen on the bsr East asia rule needs to be looked in a long range forecast so it’s very volatile in nature Can only surmise a few things: last few gfs runs have a trough moving over Japan on the 19th which would be a short 6 day correlation to the east coast of the US. Also a strong southern jet steak is being amplified by a nothern injection from a split flow. Interestingly enough there appears to be a possible typhoon in the region. If true it will aid in dropping heights from its latent heat production. the MJO is forecasted to be entering phase 4 during the lead up to this period. Phase 4 and 5 during an El Niño or neutral conditions is not favorable for negative anomalous 500mb geopotential heights. Composite: All the same, we must consider the Mjo and enso state in such long range depictions. Among other signals The SOI had a sharp increase towards the end of November which resulted in an ~10pts rise around Nov 28th. The resultant composite posted in the long range Winter thread by @jdrenkenwould be valid Dec 23rd. Finally in the face of some positive storm signals but also some possible warmers tempature signals we must consider the affects of a 3-4 week lag on the eastern US from a wave 2 stratospheric warming which occurred in the last week of November. Here was the time series plot from Jma of wave total and zonal strat temperatures along with the final look of the displacement on Nov 29 Numerical model predictions: current 0z cfs for Dec 25th also @StretchCT posted a shot of the long range Euro for around Christmas in the Long range winter thread. A volatile December temperature wise seems to be upon us. A hugely +epo should be crashing just prior to Christmas couple that with the lagged effect of the wave 2 stratospheric displacement over the northeast US and we have the makings of some large temperature swings possible entering the the last week of December. Volatility breeds storms so it’s best to keep an eye out for the huge travel weekend leading up to Christmas and the day following. A Happy and Safe Holiday to all! 🎅
  5. 19 points
    Okay @UTSwiiniiso I see I was summoned about the Jax rule. I did a bit more research so that I could more properly explain everything to the board. To understand the rule, first we have to understand how cyclogenesis works. As a quick refresher, this is how it works. So you need a temp gradient, also known as a baroclynic zone. From here, what happens is physics begins to take over to convert potential energy into kinetic energy. It does so through the processes associated with the temperature gradient. Therefore what happens is you have a front transverse the region. On this front to the left, or West you have hot air, and to the right - East- you have cool air. As we all know, heat rises and cold air sinks. As this happens the storm begins to orient itself zonally, or from west to east. From here the Coriolis effect takes place and you start to see the spin of a low pressure system. This is the basic form of cyclogenesis. As the cyclogenesis begins to take shape, you begin to see thunderstorms develop in the warm sector. What this does is to allow for latent heat to be released through the heavy precipitation that accompany thunderstorms. Latent heat is released best through moisture and condensation, therefore it is best released in the lower troposphere. What begins to happen is this latent heat release transfers into the upper atmosphere and allows for Divergence in the upper atmosphere. As a refresher, Divergence is when air evacuates an air column. Because of this, a developing low pressure system can begin to intensify more quickly. Consequently, this allows the original zonal orientation of the low pressure system or in other words the west to east movement, to become more poleward in motion. In other words, this means that the storm moves more south to North then west to east. Therefore, what this means is that when LP are going out to sea and you begin to observe a plethora of convection in the Jacksonville, Florida region, there's a good chance that this LP is going to bend Northwest instead of going out to sea and ride up the coast. Furthermore, this latent heat release allows for a stronger low pressure system as we already have talked about the Divergence caused Downstream. Therefore, the Jax rule can safely correlate to a stronger and closest system to the coast for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast region. As a side note, this also helps me understand why I made such an error in my last forecast with the last storm. I use this as an illustration. What happened is the storm began to strengthen more quickly than expected. As the storm strengthened more quickly, it caused more convection in the warm sector. This, in turn, led the west to east orientation of the baroclynic Zone becoming more south to North. This is why you saw the storm reaching for Virginia and the Delmarva region only to quickly scoot over New Jersey, up to Long Island and into the Northeast. The storm strengthened about 150 miles west of Jacksonville Florida. Taking this correlation and moving it West there for allows you to see why the storm went to New Jersey instead of off the Eastern seaboard
  6. 18 points
    My post will not serve as a admission of anything... Bar none...I have been the most dedicated moderator from the Accuweather Forums since 2008. During that time period I learned each posting style of almost all of the members. The quirks, the jokes, the good, and the bad. My communication with many members stretch outside of forums. There are even a select few who I have exchanged phone numbers with. No matter what happened, the goal was absolute...opinions are fine and dandy...as long as you abides by the guidelines. As I've said regarding teleconnection forecasting, it's a marriage of sorts. Finding the seam to which each post, and member who post it, falls. Few people can accomplish that and it's what 10 years of performing the volunteer job has provided me the joy of having that ability. Being preemptive in one situation, and exercising restraint in another, all based on my knowledge of said poster in an unbiased form. Each moderator has their own style and what they deem as inappropriate just as each individual member has their own posting style. Moving forward...if I see someone post fake, or misleading data, to support their cause...you will be called out on it by me. Why? Because those who come in here to learn will only be blinded by their biases. There is a reason why this new forum has earned the respect and, as such, those lurkers from the former Accuweather forum have migrated here instead of others once Accuweather closed. My disdain for fake, or misleading, data from social media is no secret. It's all about likes, retweets, and shares. Two examples are when a twitter account brags about how many shares they got on a post on Facebook, even though their forecast bombed in the end and another Facebook page generates so many shares that actual meteorologist have to play firefighter when everyone ask them regarding the monster storm that was shown. Heck...I even had coworkers, and family, ask me about both the tweet and Facebook post. What's the true reason you do what you do? Money or meteorology? Nobody learns from those types of venues and I refuse to allow anything that I'm a part of to reflect that. This near-term period is going to be a great test for this forum.
  7. 18 points
    Ranking of winter weather preferences: 1. Snow 2. No snow 3. Sleet 4. Rain 5. Mud 6. Locusts 7. Frogs 8. Balls of fire 9 . Tornados 10. Ice/Freezing rain
  8. 15 points
  9. 14 points
    Polite reminder - we are in observation mode. Posts containing no content relative to the current storm will be removed and moderation may be considered. We get that there is disappointment in some zones - but this is a regional thread and folks who are still to get theirs don't want to go through off topic or "woe is me" type posts. On behalf of the Staff, I thank you.
  10. 14 points
  11. 14 points
    It's official. We have no lives
  12. 14 points
    Wishing all our members and staff a very merry Christmas and best wishes for a happy and safe holiday season. And looking forward to "The Year of WXD" as I like to call it. Happy New Year to all!
  13. 13 points
    Pictures just never do the ice justice. So beautiful and Crystal out there right now.
  14. 13 points
  15. 13 points
    That's what she............ Never mind :)
  16. 13 points
  17. 13 points
  18. 13 points
  19. 12 points
    @PlanetMaster You have made an amazing site. While I would never question anyone's decisions in leadership, I believe you are being too hard on yourself and @UTSwiinii @jdrenken. This is meant with all due respect, but you and the staff have no idea how professional you are. I post on other weather forums as well, and most of them are viper dens. They want to rip your head off and have no issue attacking a person. While I understand we are better than they here, I also believe @PlanetMaster@UTSwiinii @jdrenken
  20. 12 points
    @PlanetMaster @UTSwiinii @jdrenken You all rock. I mean that. Such a great site! My god, such good people in here. As RTC2 stated above, we do like to joke around a lot, and it perhaps can go too far without really knowing what affect it may be having on someone. I really believe most are good spirited and don’t mean to offend. The same problem occurs with texting for example. You can’t read a persons face or context with just words. Ask my wife! So many misunderstandings over texts. I have the black eyes to prove it! Comes down to basic respect for each other. Can take it to the edge of the line but should not cross it thanks for communicating to us! Lets party on the next BLIZZARD FOR ALL!!!!
  21. 12 points
    Wind advisory with this scenario. Never melted. Tree branches coming down. And a big pine leaning!
  22. 12 points
    Worked at Nws OKX , retired in 2006.
  23. 12 points
    Step away for 30 min and come back to a whole bunch of crazy.
  24. 12 points
  25. 12 points
    Snobal, I kinda dig the cadence of your writing. If you read it out loud, with the spaces, it sounds sort of Bill Shatner-ish!