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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook


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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/02/2019 in all areas

  1. 6 points
    You have clearly never heard of Rod Serling. We Pennsylvanians are trapped in the HiWet Zone, an area between wet and wetter, of warm and warmer, of mud and muddier. We have two seasons: intense bugs and fewer bugs. Last Friday the mercury (remember mercury?) got up near 60F and, voila, mosquitoes. They are not only not being killed, they are barely sleeping. Highs for this week are forecast as mid to upper 40's. Lows at or above freezing. In January. Many people have said that, for whatever reason, the seasons have slid a bit. We see weather about 6 weeks after we'd expect it. Warm Novembers; cool Mays. That kind of thing. Right now January is indeed feeling like December, and December felt like November. In Brussels. Cold and damp, with a rare freeze. Will the pattern change? If so, is it really just another example of this weird season-slippage? We'll keep an eye out for it, here in the middle ground between science and superstition, as Rod used to say...
  2. 6 points
    I wouldn't feel discouraged by what the models are showing yet. The effects of the SSW/split PV aren't expected to impact us until mid-January. If we get to mid-January and we're looking at more of the same, then yeah, maybe it's time to panic. But I can't imagine how a major SSW/split PV like the one we have would cancel winter. With exception to the transient SE ridge causing some GLC, this winter is acting normally so far... active STJ and warm start to the winter, warmest being in the upper MW.
  3. 4 points
    Biggest drop off in the SOI in quite some time....
  4. 4 points
    If this outlook holds, then many E of the MS, have hope for a winter turn around. Don't focus on verbatim, I'm using this map for illustration only - what MAY happen, should the reality follow the form of the model. What I've been watching is the pushy Pacific jet coming off the Asian continent. It has, recently, pushed nearly 200kts the whole way across the basin (at least to the HI Islands). As depicted in the above, it barely gets above 180 and not nearly as influential in the Pac basin. Thus, unable to further feed the N stream with so much energy we have a chance to have high pressure fill the vacuum and provide cold air sources for storms to attack. Now- to the east (aka the Atlantic) we still have a progressive look with no real sign of that changing. We need a "braking" mechanism of some sort (Cranky would call this "traffic" - I don't think the form it takes matters, NAO region blocking could serve the same purpose, for example - but I digress). Without some "buckling mechanism" in the Atl. the storms would tend to take the form of "over-runners, or sliders" (and some that could crank up if exactly precise conditions await at the coast) which, as I've mentioned in previous outlooks can (and likely will) produce wide spread winter.
  5. 4 points
    Hey everyone, If the trolling/instigating posts continue warnings will be given out. If you see something be sure to report it and one of the mods will take care of it.
  6. 3 points
    Is that like the Delfonics La La La sound or like Dumb N Dumber La La La?
  7. 3 points
    Everything UTS said. On top of this, in the opening I warned that this could be a FROPA but I was looking for something to spawn on the cold front or transfer based on what happened in Asia and for that reason I was favoring New England for snows. The opportunity for bigger snows comes later (and I fully believe that it is going to happen just figuring out the when) but this was/is a storm to track in the meantime.
  8. 2 points
  9. 2 points
    It would appear that for those in my neck of the woods that we could finally be seeing the hints of a pattern change in about 9-14 days. Maybe a less hostile Pac and a little bit of cold air. It would be nice to finally have something worth tracking!
  10. 2 points
    Yep! I was a bit disappointed that it didn't meet my criteria of 10pts in one day or 20pts in three.
  11. 2 points
    The 00z eps is also showing a strong signal for a coastal transfer.
  12. 2 points
    They can’t even agree 48 hour or less out, what makes us think they’ll agree 7-8 days away
  13. 2 points
    More water. yay. Water tonight, Friday, and Saturday. Endless mud. Endless mud. Endless mud. I'm sure glad that it never freezes, because that would allow me to do something radical like walk across my lawn and gather firewood. No, better that we get more water. Water, water, water. Has there been a dry week since July? I don't think so. I don't believe we have seen seven consecutive days without either significant precipitation, or a level of dew in the mornings that was akin to rain. During the holiday my creek flooded again. TWICE. A month of this is tough. Two months is very unusual. We are now entering month seven.
  14. 2 points
    Look in the LR Winter thread for some clues. Your comment about the pattern is, certainly, valid. In response, I offer... We are entering climatologically the coldest part of most winters - so colder solutions can prevail. Influences from CAD and potentially latent pre-event cold (in response to other factors such as PAC jet off Asian continent) - to name just a couple. In relation to this event, in the post just prior to yours, I'm trying to show that "increasingly" colder solutions seem to (should?) start to come to the fore. Substantial snow is not what this thread is about though - it's storm potential discussion. Besides, substantial is a very subjective term - if you mean high snow totals, that's one thing - if you mean widespread wintery precip, that is quite another.
  15. 2 points
    Yikes, I see a -48°F air temp in there...too bad this is fantasy range GFS land...at least we have some eye candy
  16. 2 points
    New Horizons: Beyond Pluto Look to the right panel for latest news, the first pictures; one a static image, the other a video showing Ultima Thule's rotation. Then the LORRI images; bottom left panel. Tomorrow's and Thursday's press briefing's should have more pictures and maybe video.
  17. 2 points
  18. 2 points
    For anyone that dares imply that winter is over...they're either ignorant or trying to get under someone's skin. Notice Anthony's last response
  19. 1 point
    700mb imby is drier than my mouth on New Years morning... Which makes this map irrelevant for me.
  20. 1 point
    Unexpected overnight crush job here. Biggest by far the entire year!!!
  21. 1 point
  22. 1 point
    Man this one is close. Wouldnt take much for some North and South interaction.
  23. 1 point
    To no surprise the 18z gfs is a 45th parallel storm in the northeast. GLC cutter that redevelops way north. The northern stream strikes again. The gift that keeps on giving.
  24. 1 point
    Hmmm, wonder where we've heard this before?
  25. 1 point