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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/02/2019 in all areas

  1. 6 points
    You have clearly never heard of Rod Serling. We Pennsylvanians are trapped in the HiWet Zone, an area between wet and wetter, of warm and warmer, of mud and muddier. We have two seasons: intense bugs and fewer bugs. Last Friday the mercury (remember mercury?) got up near 60F and, voila, mosquitoes. They are not only not being killed, they are barely sleeping. Highs for this week are forecast as mid to upper 40's. Lows at or above freezing. In January. Many people have said that, for whatever reason, the seasons have slid a bit. We see weather about 6 weeks after we'd expect it. Warm Novembers; cool Mays. That kind of thing. Right now January is indeed feeling like December, and December felt like November. In Brussels. Cold and damp, with a rare freeze. Will the pattern change? If so, is it really just another example of this weird season-slippage? We'll keep an eye out for it, here in the middle ground between science and superstition, as Rod used to say...
  2. 6 points
    I wouldn't feel discouraged by what the models are showing yet. The effects of the SSW/split PV aren't expected to impact us until mid-January. If we get to mid-January and we're looking at more of the same, then yeah, maybe it's time to panic. But I can't imagine how a major SSW/split PV like the one we have would cancel winter. With exception to the transient SE ridge causing some GLC, this winter is acting normally so far... active STJ and warm start to the winter, warmest being in the upper MW.
  3. 5 points
    JB absolutely goes down with the ship, but he doesn't learn and he almost never acknowledges when he's wrong. This is why he goes with cold winter forecasts every year.
  4. 4 points
  5. 4 points
    Biggest drop off in the SOI in quite some time....
  6. 4 points
    If this outlook holds, then many E of the MS, have hope for a winter turn around. Don't focus on verbatim, I'm using this map for illustration only - what MAY happen, should the reality follow the form of the model. What I've been watching is the pushy Pacific jet coming off the Asian continent. It has, recently, pushed nearly 200kts the whole way across the basin (at least to the HI Islands). As depicted in the above, it barely gets above 180 and not nearly as influential in the Pac basin. Thus, unable to further feed the N stream with so much energy we have a chance to have high pressure fill the vacuum and provide cold air sources for storms to attack. Now- to the east (aka the Atlantic) we still have a progressive look with no real sign of that changing. We need a "braking" mechanism of some sort (Cranky would call this "traffic" - I don't think the form it takes matters, NAO region blocking could serve the same purpose, for example - but I digress). Without some "buckling mechanism" in the Atl. the storms would tend to take the form of "over-runners, or sliders" (and some that could crank up if exactly precise conditions await at the coast) which, as I've mentioned in previous outlooks can (and likely will) produce wide spread winter.
  7. 4 points
    Hey everyone, If the trolling/instigating posts continue warnings will be given out. If you see something be sure to report it and one of the mods will take care of it.
  8. 3 points
    I find taking a deep breath helps, particularly before posting I find myself taking a lot of deep breaths lately. Hence the lack of posts.
  9. 3 points
    Europe has to be hit first before the depth of cold air comes here. We also can only hope that a "ridge bridge" into Siberia happens to tap that cold even more so. On a different note, you know darn well why JB is getting hit hard. "December to remember"
  10. 3 points
    The saying, "if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is" comes to mind. This just appears too perfect.
  11. 3 points
    For entertainment purposes only...FV3: Look at that -78F wind chill in the Canadian Prairies...
  12. 3 points
    really crazy. not used to our spots down here above 3000' with no snow. up there, above 4k' and no snow. nuts.
  13. 3 points
    Yea. It´s a good step when the ECMWF leads and the others follow with similar ideas, especially track and temperature wise.
  14. 3 points
  15. 3 points
    Is that like the Delfonics La La La sound or like Dumb N Dumber La La La?
  16. 3 points
    Everything UTS said. On top of this, in the opening I warned that this could be a FROPA but I was looking for something to spawn on the cold front or transfer based on what happened in Asia and for that reason I was favoring New England for snows. The opportunity for bigger snows comes later (and I fully believe that it is going to happen just figuring out the when) but this was/is a storm to track in the meantime.
  17. 2 points
    The Northeast/Mid-Atlantic is a large region. This storm appears to be an all-snow event for at least some areas of the region, which couldn't be said about the previous storms. We'll see if it verifies, but for now just chill a bit with the tone, it's not very healthy conversation to keep putting down storms this far out...
  18. 2 points
    Since it shows me getting 18” approximately 0.01% Honestly i don’t know it’s verification score. All I know is that the EPS score reigns supreme
  19. 2 points
    EPS says that crazy FV3 run is completely off its rocker - good rule of thumb: do not believe in any drastic pattern changes until they start showing up in the mid-range rather than just fantasy long range.
  20. 2 points
    Lol... trying to hold my composure but this winter so far giving me flashbacks of the last winter we had an early snowstorm in 11-12....
  21. 2 points
    I've not seen anyone saying "don't discuss SSW". I have seen some of our better posters say to not discuss it in terms of being something more than it is. Or acting as - if A (SSW) happens, then B (insert preferred result here) must happen.
  22. 2 points
    And we get a somewhat late transfer. Looks rather promising. Cautiously optimistic.
  23. 2 points
  24. 2 points
    It would appear that for those in my neck of the woods that we could finally be seeing the hints of a pattern change in about 9-14 days. Maybe a less hostile Pac and a little bit of cold air. It would be nice to finally have something worth tracking!
  25. 2 points
    Yep! I was a bit disappointed that it didn't meet my criteria of 10pts in one day or 20pts in three.
  26. 2 points
    The 00z eps is also showing a strong signal for a coastal transfer.
  27. 2 points
    They can’t even agree 48 hour or less out, what makes us think they’ll agree 7-8 days away
  28. 2 points
    More water. yay. Water tonight, Friday, and Saturday. Endless mud. Endless mud. Endless mud. I'm sure glad that it never freezes, because that would allow me to do something radical like walk across my lawn and gather firewood. No, better that we get more water. Water, water, water. Has there been a dry week since July? I don't think so. I don't believe we have seen seven consecutive days without either significant precipitation, or a level of dew in the mornings that was akin to rain. During the holiday my creek flooded again. TWICE. A month of this is tough. Two months is very unusual. We are now entering month seven.
  29. 2 points
    Look in the LR Winter thread for some clues. Your comment about the pattern is, certainly, valid. In response, I offer... We are entering climatologically the coldest part of most winters - so colder solutions can prevail. Influences from CAD and potentially latent pre-event cold (in response to other factors such as PAC jet off Asian continent) - to name just a couple. In relation to this event, in the post just prior to yours, I'm trying to show that "increasingly" colder solutions seem to (should?) start to come to the fore. Substantial snow is not what this thread is about though - it's storm potential discussion. Besides, substantial is a very subjective term - if you mean high snow totals, that's one thing - if you mean widespread wintery precip, that is quite another.
  30. 2 points
    Yikes, I see a -48°F air temp in there...too bad this is fantasy range GFS land...at least we have some eye candy
  31. 2 points
    New Horizons: Beyond Pluto Look to the right panel for latest news, the first pictures; one a static image, the other a video showing Ultima Thule's rotation. Then the LORRI images; bottom left panel. Tomorrow's and Thursday's press briefing's should have more pictures and maybe video.
  32. 2 points
  33. 2 points
    For anyone that dares imply that winter is over...they're either ignorant or trying to get under someone's skin. Notice Anthony's last response
  34. 1 point
    lol trying to get that elusive snowstorm well good luck on that for now things arent linking up give it till about mid month to start to see things falling a little bit better in terms of timing for storm systems in the east im thinking more toward the end of the month for now but still a random storm coming together isnt out of the question. Not like many of you probably care but at least one good thing has been happening, the Arctic has been fairly stable as of late which is great for some type of recovery process. Of course one year does not make a huge change but good to see things progressing a little better.
  35. 1 point
    Sorry JD been way too busy with work and the holidays been quite interesting to say the least. Seeing how it wasn't quite the normal wave-2 process considering a large warm push occurred which allowed a displacement with the idea of it wanting to split, which is still on the table looks to more of a semi split depletion of the one lobe and then gets shunted from the warming aloft to a weakened state, maybe over Canada? It will be interesting to see the implications of what happens the European shows an interesting situation which im not sure will be all too great for the U.S. for january I could see cold shots spilling into the U.S., pretty decent ones at that, but things may setup better come end of january/ early february as we get a better hold on the distribution taking place. Also have noticed not a lot of Atlantic influence even with repetitive strong storm action in the upper Atlantic region so may have some issues with coupling until again probably end of the month. This doesnt discount the idea there could be a winter event thrown in there but im not seeing much yet. Sorry they are PDF clicks. Also to put it into perspective looking at this years heat flux versus last years abrupt should tell a tale. z1n_50_2018_merra2.pdf z2n_50_2018_merra2.pdf vt45_75n_50_2018_merra2.pdf
  36. 1 point
    Not surprised... I have tried to avoid that thread for my own sanity knowing how ugly its been lately. Nothing is more depressing to me then this time of year with 30s and 40s, bare trees, brown grass and no snow threats. Dont mind me though, back on topic... Euro control sure looks dreamy PARD
  37. 1 point
    Well the euro control is a beast. 982 low just sits and spins over Nantucket for 12 hours.
  38. 1 point
    JD answered 2 weeks but if I'm reading your question correctly you're asking is there a way to track if it's translating down rather than "waiting & seeing"? If so, yes we can follow whether it's translating downward. Models also forecast whether it will but models are "not" great at that. An example of stratospheric coupling with troposphere & What it looks like would be today's 12z FV3-GFS. I don't have access to its 10mb Strat so here's the 30mb strst in tne top image. 2 image is how in the troposphere at 500mb you see the vortex over southern Canada. 3rd image is the 2m temps...thats coupling. Now that's a long-range model forecast, so take that with a grain of salt. Let me add this us what Judah Cohen uses to track down dwelling. GFS has that data accessible publicly. Euro does not according to Michael Ventrice.
  39. 1 point
  40. 1 point
    the difference between the GFS and FV3 day 10+ is extreme
  41. 1 point
    And compares decently, with SLP placement, and SHP (over top of ME) to CMC. Could be red flag to UK (that it agrees with CMC).
  42. 1 point
    Extreme caution here lol Either way this looks like the potential for some nice WAA snows out ahead of the main system..probably will have to deal with rain/mix before flipping back to snow on the back side..As it stands now..
  43. 1 point
    700mb imby is drier than my mouth on New Years morning... Which makes this map irrelevant for me.
  44. 1 point
    Unexpected overnight crush job here. Biggest by far the entire year!!!
  45. 1 point
  46. 1 point
    Man this one is close. Wouldnt take much for some North and South interaction.
  47. 1 point
    To no surprise the 18z gfs is a 45th parallel storm in the northeast. GLC cutter that redevelops way north. The northern stream strikes again. The gift that keeps on giving.
  48. 1 point
    Hmmm, wonder where we've heard this before?
  49. 1 point
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