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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

HamiltonWx

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  1. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    yay…another freezing rain warning.
  2. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    Ended with 12cm here. Yea, the main bands shifted north quite a bit last night at the last minute. For a couple hours I was in the heaviest bands while I suspect Stoney Creek was getting very light snow, if anything….sharp cutoff with such a small system. This storm puts me over 120cm in the last 30 days! Average for Hamilton for the entire winter is 118cm….fantastic month!!
  3. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    Close to 5cm here. Just cranking
  4. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    Radar looking fantastic and a long heavy band rolling in now. This might be alright.
  5. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    It’s cranking out there. Couple cm down already.
  6. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    All models coming in with lower totals now. Hopefully 10cm can still fall.
  7. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    This thing looks like crap on radar at the moment. Needs some serious juicing up
  8. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    new 18z HRRR...again, these ratios might be a little overdone, but 10:1 is certainly well underdone. 15-20cm Hamilton-Niagara 10-12cm GTA 3k NAM 5-10cm GTA 20-25cm Hamilton 10-12cm Niagara 18z NAM 15cm Hamilton-Burlington 10-12 cm GTA/Niagara For those of us at the west end of the lake, I would temper your expectations to be more in the 10-12cm range. Dry air aloft is once again preventing the lake from doing anything. No reason to believe the lake enhanced component of these models, since most of them showed us already having lake snow on the ground by now. It simply isn't happening. Only way I see the lake machine firing up is when the system snow arrives and finally saturates the atmosphere and kicks the dry air out.
  9. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    the new weather statement is easing up on the wording now that it's becoming apparent the lake effect machine isn't doing anything. Earlier statement spoke about amounts exceeding 15cm...now they're watching in case amounts 'approach' 15cm. Def won't be seeing 5cm today as forecasted. Very very light snow here off the lake, but no accumulation. As I mentioned earlier, lake effect is near impossible to get down this way....we've already had a couple good doses of it this winter which is more than most winters, so no complaints here! Now we need the system to deliver, along with some lake enhanced moisture. https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on58
  10. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    the new 12z RGEM is much better in terms of snowfall. BTW, I think these Kuchera ratios are a tad overdone. But without a doubt this won't be 10:1 snow. Maybe in the middle somewhere.
  11. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    12z NAM has a widespread 15cm for the Golden Horseshoe, with an area of 15-20cm south of Hamilton. 3k NAM has 15cm for Hamilton. 10cm for the GTA and Niagara
  12. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    If the 12z HRRR is to be believed, we're looking at 10-15cm for GTA. 15-25 for Hamilton (with the sweet spot indeed over the east end/Stoney Creek area) 15 for Niagara This will be lightweight snow, so we NE winds 40 gusting to 50, there could be a lot of blowing and drifting if we end up receiving snow as heavy as being suggested now.
  13. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    My EC forecast now calling for 17cm between now and tomorrow morn. The special weather statement also says they are monitoring this area for a possible snowfall warning. I know we had that 40+ cm lake storm a month ago, but lake snow is very tough to come by around here. I’ll believe it when I see it. Lol
  14. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    the SREF plume shows 3.9 inches at YYZ and 4.2 inches at YHM… not sure if this is at 10:1 or includes ratios? The interesting thing with this little system is that if by chance there is lake effect, most of the impact will be felt north of YHM and south of YYZ.
  15. HamiltonWx

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    it's gonna be cold at the surface, and aloft, so ratios should be pretty good…light fluff. Here are some kuchera totals FWIW GFS 3K NAM 18z HRRR…yes, it's showing 15-20cm for Hamilton-Stoney Creek 18z RGEM 12z HRW-WRF…let's save this to laugh at later. lol Ditto for the WRF-NSSL
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