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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

jdrenken

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Everything posted by jdrenken

  1. Exactly...drop in verification at the beginning of the period in question.
  2. jdrenken

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Thanks Rob! I played 1st chair Viola in middle school!
  3. jdrenken

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Another 9.6 rise between the 11th-12th. Apply the maps above for New Year's storm.
  4. The euro takes a Southern stream system and squashed it while focusing on a clipper. Goes from 1002mb in Western MI to 981mb on the Northern border of NY & VT on the 22nd.
  5. jdrenken

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Some legit research that I've done on the daily SOI changes... We had a 9.8pt rise Nov 27-28. 20 days later, the composites show this... The WPC has day 3 500mb looking like this... So...our timing is pretty darn close!
  6. I noticed summer and winter, but no fall. How can we leave one of the favorite seasons out?
  7. jdrenken

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    -PNA on the ENS has a "dump cold west, moderate east" look.
  8. Not saying that at all. Earlier this month there was thread hijacking done due to confusion of what storm was for what thread.
  9. This is not "tanking". It moves from positive to neutral negative. If the negative values reflected the positive, I'd say yes...it's not. On that note, I've seen Twitter accounts create composites based on a -EPO to push their agenda. At the same time they have a +PNA in there. Let's be realistic instead of hype. When looking at operational tellies, remember my rule... "Forecast high, verification low. Forecast low, verification high."
  10. That's not the point of my post as it pertains to the organization of the threads.
  11. I would highly suggest we wait for some model consensus before going down the same road we did at the beginning of the month.
  12. Tried and true... When there's a warm up in the winter, look out for what's behind it!
  13. jdrenken

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    A great thread by Jaques...
  14. jdrenken

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    If only the weeklies verification could be taken seriously.
  15. jdrenken

    December 19-21, 2018 | Storm Possibility

    At the end of PV's BSR gif you can see Pococono's storm coming in view over the South.
  16. Accumulating snow from eastern New Mexico to Arkansas appears likely Friday into Saturday with snow totals of 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts possible especially over the Texas Panhandle. South and east of the snow, a band of potentially hazardous freezing rain from roughly Lubbock, TX to Oklahoma City and into the Ozarks of northern Arkansas with accumulations in the .10 to .25 inch range is possible.
  17. jdrenken

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    You might want to reword the top paragraph to match your graphic. The correlation of December SOI to December temperatures is below. Note the negative correlation encompassing most of the ECONUS. So, if the SOI is negative(positive), the correlation is AN(BN) temperatures over that area. Below is your graphic, but for US. So...how one interprets the above map is that if the SOI is negative(positive), then the SE will experience BN(AN) temperatures and the West will experience AN(BN) temperatures.
  18. Talk about a winner on the FV3! I'm at work and surprised this hasn't been posted yet since the OV thread has been hopin for the same storm.
  19. jdrenken

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Then stop posting the next storm in this thread.
  20. jdrenken

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    That is being over used and is loosing it's usefulness.
  21. jdrenken

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    This wins post of the thread!
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