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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

raindancewx

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raindancewx last won the day on November 2 2018

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  1. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    This week looks pretty promising for cold and snow in New Mexico. High may only be 35F or so on Tuesday here, around 20F below average, with snow. I think this might be underdone for Albuquerque, but it's a bit early to say either way since its 30+ hours out yet.
  2. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Chama, NM, high up, and in the north did well with the atmospheric river event this week. Here is what it looked like this morning.
  3. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2019-02-14-march-april-may-2019-temperature-outlook-the-weather-company My March outlook is amazingly close to what the Weather Channel has in its latest update. Although the core of the cold is in the SW on their map, I think its in the Southern Plains. I don't agree with their April Outlook. Or May, but those are further out, so doesn't matter yet. Low solar is a strong cold signal for a lot of the West in April.
  4. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

  5. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Most of the modeling seems to be trending toward a warm East in March honestly. You probably do have a cold week or two if the MJO makes it into phase 2/3, but we've had a lot of winter with phase 4/5 for prolonged periods, and that will destroy a lot of the cold in March.
  6. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Latest Jamstec is similar for Spring to what it had before. Somewhat warmer in the NE & Plains. If you switch the red and blue areas in the Southeast US for the February run that's pretty close to what I had, although I think the NW may be pretty near average. You can see CA trended colder on this run, even though it is still war.
  7. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    February 1975, 1986, 1988 all have at least a passing resemblance to February so far. Dec-Jan 1974-75 also looked like Dec-Jan. Part of why I used Spring 1975 in my Spring Outlook. 1974-75 had the big +SOI in December and a slightly -SOI in January. It was a La Nina, but it was much warmer in Nino 3.4 in 1974-75 than in 1973-74, just like this year is much warmer than Nino 3.4 than last year. I went back 100 years, and 1974-75 is the closest precipitation match objectively to 2018-19 in Albuquerque for July-January. Big +NAO in October 1974 was like October 2018 too. Major hurricane hit the Gulf Coast in Summer 1974 too. Also low solar.
  8. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Snowfall in the NE corridor in El Nino is correlated with snow in Albuquerque - so if this verifies or comes close, NE snow departures (low snow) are likely to lock in for the season without a late turn around, as this would push Albuquerque to around 10 inches of snow, above the Oct-May average, and certainly 20% above average in late February.
  9. raindancewx

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    The data sets are different. The weeklies only go back to 1990 because they come from a data set that isn't ICOADs based I think. There are at least 25 data sets by various meteorological agencies for ocean temperatures. People passionately argue about temperatures in boiler rooms being contaminated by engine heat, and whether the samples are right, etc. Nino 3.4 has been well sampled for a long time, what's more debatable is Nino 1.2 pre-1950. This data set is based on constant buoys/obs techniques back to the 1800s - so if you correlate it against the official 1950- data and then adjust for its weirdness, I find its pretty reliable as for older ENSO events in Nino 3.4. As an example, 2005-06 and 2017-18 and 1933-34 are all almost identical for US weather, and SSTs. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.data Anyway, as one of the guys posted in the Spring thread, this is an official El Nino now. The SOI is back to -8 for February through 2/14. Looks negative to very negative for at least most of the next ten days. The subtropical jet is doing some amazing things here in the SW - its all relatively cannonical now. The cold West / warm East thing for February showed up in 1998 and this is a relatively East based El Nino like that year, at least in January.
  10. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    The SOI for February is down to -8 for 2/1-2/14. The European has a pressure pattern by Australia and Tahiti, that to me, looks like a slightly to very negative SOI for the next five-ten days, maybe around -10 or so for the next ten days, with some near 0 readings and some -20s in there. It's early, but -5 to -15 is probably the most likely range for the SOI in February.
  11. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    I think we'll see the Plains and Rockies fill in some more over the next 60 days, but been pretty happy with my snow forecast generally. Missouri and the Eastern Dakotas are doing well, and I thought they would. The mountains here will get a couple feet in the next few days.
  12. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    The best indicator I know of for SE US heat in February is the SOI in December. The Eastern US seems to respond better to the atmospheric ENSO indicators than the West, where the oceans kind of rule. You can see the cold in the NW (WA/OR) was favored by the +9.1 SOI in December too. It's not certain yet, but I'd actually go 70/30 that the SW US finishes cold for the month - we keep missing our highs with high clouds since the subtropical jet is over us, but there is no low level moisture at all yet (seriously - I don't think we've had a dew point over 30 in like 3-4 weeks) so it still gets very cold at night. There are some El Ninos with a cold West / warm East setup for February. 1952, 1959, 1998, are probably the most canonical examples, although there are some El Ninos with the whole US cold in February like 1966, or the SW cold and the rest of the US warm, like 2005. Box C on the Modoki definition (ocean temps by the Philippines) tends to be a good indicator for Western cold, and it has been fairly cold, probably the coldest it has been since 2009-10. The El Nino coming back at the subsurface or in an SOI sense for February should favor SW/Plains cold in March, but it will be less successful in reaching the West Coast relative to February. The MJO has gotten "stuck" in phase 4/5 this winter a lot, so that would be a good reason to be skeptical of a very cold March in the East even if the pattern does go to phase 1-2-3 for early March.
  13. raindancewx

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    I don't know if the ONI number will top +0.8C. The thing with ENSO is past NDJ, the variation from the long-term averages diminishes pretty quickly, so a reading of say +0.7C in JFM is actually much higher in a "ranking sense" than it would be in NDJ if that were to occur. You have only 21 JFM readings at or over +0.5C since 1950 on the ONI site, compared to 24 for NDJ. If CPC doesn't revise the January number, with the heat under the surface it seems pretty safe that JFM is +0.5C or higher. FMA is probably going to be close too. I think 2004-05 is a decent model for the next few months, as opposed to say 2006-07 which was decent in December. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2004 11 27.36 26.75 0.61 2004 12 27.34 26.65 0.69 2005 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2005 2 27.12 26.66 0.46 2005 3 27.74 27.21 0.53 2005 4 28.09 27.73 0.35 2005 5 28.24 27.85 0.39 2006 11 27.70 26.75 0.95 2006 12 27.74 26.65 1.09 2007 1 27.25 26.45 0.80 2007 2 26.90 26.66 0.23 2007 3 27.12 27.21 -0.09 2007 4 27.51 27.73 -0.22 2007 5 27.46 27.85 -0.38 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.25 26.45 0.80
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