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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

raindancewx

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raindancewx last won the day on November 2

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  1. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    2002 is a pretty strong analog for temperatures, but I'm not a big fan for precipitation if that makes any sense. It has also been consistently warmer on the coasts than 2002, that has always been my nitpick issue with it for temperatures. The PDO being positive is a stronger indicator than ENSO itself for temps in the NW/SW by correlation, so the less intense cold to the East Coast to date is consistent with the PDO not really being in a canonical positive phase, since the warm blob is by Alaska...as is the warmth by Japan. For precip, it is drier than 2002 for most of the immediate East, but it is also much wetter in the Midwest and West - both NW and SW generally. East-based El Ninos are often pretty wet for the entire West at times, and this event is less Modoki-ish / more eastern than 2002, so that is consistent with the differences in precipitation.
  2. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    The most interesting thing about the Jamstec update may be that it trended the El Nino much weaker in Spring. It also has a cold West / warm East look which is something that does tend to show up in Spring after a major hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico I find. As hot and dry as last winter was last year for the entire West, it did get very cold in late February and early March while the East roasted, in line with the theory. Had a storm in early March here when it was like 37F at 3 pm with some rain, 20-25F below normal after no days like that at all for something like six or more months. I've started looking at Spring analogs, and I tentatively like the Spring 1958, 1970, 1973, 1987, 2005, 2007, 2007 as a blend. We'll have to see. Will change my mind by Feb 10 when I do my Spring outlook I'm sure. Those years have higher solar activity than this year as a blend, so I'd de-trend for that, but it gets you 1969-70 which is my top match for Jun-Nov highs and Jun-Nov precip monthly, and after Camille, and a year with a good SOI/MEI match in December. In the SW, cold Marches are pretty common after a big +NAO in October, so those years have that incorporated to some extent. We haven't had a wet March in large areas of the SW since 2007, it's probably way overdue. It's part of why tornadic activity has been so low lately. The blend has a +0.4 PDO for Nov-Apr, which looks about right to me, and you have a near-neutral Nov-Apr AMO, which seems likely given the Nov AMO was the coldest since 1996, but an up/down AMO seems likely. Spring 1958 and 2005 also followed major Gulf Coast hurricane hits. Locally, there is a strong tendency for March to be very wet in an El Nino if you have a large difference in precipitation in Sept v. Oct, it seems to be some kind of MJO indicator. Years with similar Sept/Oct totals tend to be dry the following March, this year had the largest difference since 2002-03 in an El Nino. This is what I have, using absolute value of the difference between Sept and Oct precipitation in El Nino years, compared to the following March. In a quadrant sense, nearly all the close years to this year are pretty wet, and a lot of the years I listed above showed up. The top left/bottom right are overwhelmingly followed by wet Marches, while the top right with a wet Oct/wet Sept tends to almost always be followed by a dry/below average March. Bottom left is kind of average. The years that are on top of each other on this grid tend to see near identical precipitation in March - the two dots on top of each other below 1994 are 2015 and 1965, which both featured 0.00" in the following March.
  3. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    The Jamstec has gone to the CFS solution of extreme warmth for most of the US, except the SW. The Dec run actually did pretty well last year for what its worth. The solution it has looks somewhat like 1953, 1994, and 1986 blend to some extent, which are all low solar El Ninos.
  4. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Here is a look at how well the subsurface analogs did for November. I use the 1979-2017 subsurface data (top 300m), 100W-180W, for three months to replicate the most recent year. This is November replicated v. actual - the numbers are total subsurface warmth in 100W-180W against 1981-2010 averages by month. Subsurface August Sept October 2002 1.05 1.41 1.72 2002 1.05 1.41 1.72 2002 1.05 1.41 1.72 1991 0.49 0.6 1.41 1991 0.49 0.6 1.41 Mean 0.83 1.09 1.60 2018 0.81 1.12 1.59 These were the years I used for Sept, Oct, Nov to try to get Dec. Looked fairly close to what I had forecast in Dec back in Oct, which I find encouraging with a warm up telegraphed on the models, MJO and by CPC (6-10, 8-14, week 3-4 all have warmth in the East). Year Sept Oct Nov 1982 1.86 2.07 1.92 1982 1.86 2.07 1.92 1986 0.65 0.95 0.52 1991 0.60 1.41 1.22 1991 0.60 1.41 1.22 1994 0.70 1.12 1.16 2002 1.41 1.72 1.58 2002 1.41 1.72 1.58 Mean 1.14 1.56 1.39 2018 1.12 1.58 1.36 For January, it seems like the subsurface is weakening in December. Tentatively like something like this - obviously subject to change and not my forecast, but I think the subsurface numbers will be close to this in December. The national data is very sensitive to the subsurface, so if Dec is higher or lower, the blend will produce an entirely different configuration. I probably am off at least a bit, given that big +NAO Octobers tend to be cold in AZ and CA the following January. Year Oct Nov Dec 2018 1.58 1.36 1.15 1982 2.07 1.92 1.45 1986 0.95 0.52 0.97 1991 1.41 1.22 1.71 2002 1.72 1.58 0.74 2002 1.72 1.58 0.74 Mean 1.57 1.36 1.12
  5. raindancewx

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    Sept-Nov looks pretty basin wide to me.
  6. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Whoops, I meant February for the first paragraph, not December.
  7. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    This is pretty close to what I was expecting at times later in December, although I don't necessarily buy the magnitudes. If you like the cold, the good news is I don't think this part of the pattern shows up much after Christmas later in winter, at least until March.
  8. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    For 12/1-12/5 the SOI is +8. Back to 1950, there are no El Ninos with a December SOI reading of more than +2.3. If we finish above that level, will be interesting to see what kind of weird pattern emerges. The SOI, when positive in December, tends to favor a lot of heat in the SE in December. I'd imagine it will come down by 12/31, at least somewhat, but it may not. Something to watch. Part of why March 2018 went batty in the NE this year I think is because you had a pretty healthy La Nina, AND a big -SOI reading in February. Those two things are a massive contradiction, I think it was the lowest February SOI reading in a La Nina since 1931 when I looked, with Feb 1986, a near-Nina, close by in terms of contradiction. I find with these maps, the darker greens and blues generally hold up pretty well, with the lighter areas hit or miss. But obviously we have to see where the Dec SOI finishes. The lowest Dec SOI reading since 1931 is about -30. The middle 80% of Decembers are between about -13 and +13. So I'd say (+8*5 days)+(-13*26) is a fairly realistic low bound, about -10, and then +12 is a fairly realistic high bound. A lot of the El Ninos idealized for cold and snow ended up way below -10 in December - 1940, 1963, 1976, 1977, 2002, and one of my favorites, 1972 is on there too. The ECMWF depiction of the South Pacific doesn't look like a like -SOI pattern to me through the next five days, so -10 for December may already be pretty tenuous. If you put a gun to my head, I'd maybe guess -3 to +5 for December, which is similar to these Decembers - Dec SOI 1969 +2.3 1965 +0.3 1968 +0.3 1957 -4.3 2006 -5.3 1953 -5.8 1987 -5.8
  9. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    SOI matches for Sept-Nov included 1953 as a top year. For 12/1-12/5, its not bad, I'd call it 80%. I know the placement of the magnitudes are off, but its five days, and from three numbers. You have intense cold int he West, and the East warm around the cold core. SOI Sept Oct Nov 1953 -13.0 -0.3 -2.7 2018 -8.5 2.6 -0.9
  10. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Using absolute value for each month, in Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4, this is what I get as top matches for Sept-Nov 2018 using actual SSTs, not anomalies with differing means like NOAA does. 2006 will probably be in the top four for Oct-Dec, but it wasn't great in Sept or Oct as a match. Some very wet years, some very warm December nationally, and then 2009 and 2014...quite a list. Third warmest Nov in Nino 4 on record, second warmest in Oct. Warmth in Oct there tends to lead to warm Decembers. We'll see how it turns out.
  11. raindancewx

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    The SOI for December has been pretty positive so far - pretty unusual for a December in an El Nino. The most recent El Ninos with a +SOI in December are 1965, 1968, 1969. I'm not big on 1968, but you did have major hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico in 1965 and 1969, and the 1969 Fall pattern wasn't super different from this year. Will be looking at those years closely for January if the SOI remains positive in December, especially since 1969 seems to be a good MJO match too going by the monthly US temperature progression in Fall.
  12. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    I think part of why CPC went with their map, in their defense, is they saw this for the first few days of December -
  13. raindancewx

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    CPC has ONI at +0.7C in Nino 3.4 for Sept-Nov 2018. The un-rounded number is +0.72, with +0.89C for Nov. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.40 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.87 2018 11 27.63 26.75 0.89 September didn't change much from last month's update, only by 0.04C. These are the top Nov matches for all Nino zones. All of those years are warm in at least half the US in Dec. Nov 4 3.4 3 1.2 Match 2018 29.67 27.63 25.99 22.39 0.00 2006 29.62 27.69 26.10 22.45 0.28 1994 29.44 27.81 25.99 22.26 0.54 2014 29.43 27.46 25.88 22.45 0.58 1991 29.39 27.90 26.05 22.38 0.62 2004 29.45 27.36 25.73 22.37 0.77 1987 29.52 27.77 26.09 22.80 0.80 For Sept-Nov, the transition is most similar to these years in Nino 3.4, objectively - Year Sept Oct Nov Match 2018 27.19 27.62 27.63 0.00 1986 27.24 27.53 27.71 0.22 1994 27.20 27.47 27.81 0.34 1991 27.14 27.58 27.90 0.36 2006 27.32 27.41 27.69 0.40 1957 27.44 27.42 27.62 0.46 1976 27.02 27.46 27.41 0.55
  14. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    I don't ever remember CPC forecasting only Utah and Maine to be cold. Anyone ever seen a map like this from them?
  15. raindancewx

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Sunspot activity increased in November year/year. First year/year increase since September 2014. Not a huge increase mind you - 5.9 in Nov 2018 v. 5.7 in Nov 2017, but still, this only happens at the very bottom of the cycle or when the cycle is peaking. The subsurface blend of 1991, 1991, 2002, 2002, 2002 (100W-180W) I used for Aug/Sept/Oct subsurface conditions was very close to national conditions in November. You can see for yourself in the El Nino thread. For December, the best match I could get was 1982, 1982, 1986, 1991, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2002. Actually, 2006 is identical to the subsurface in Sept/Nov but it is a bad match in Oct. The blend does look like Dec 2006 spatially.
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