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raindancewx

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raindancewx last won the day on November 2 2018

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  1. In the Southwest US, it looks like the ACE Index for the Atlantic Hurricane season is a very strong indicator for how the following winter will be during a La Nina. The great, BS, Dust Bowl, super hot, super dry winters of legend - 1933-34, and 2005-06 are both over 250 on the ACE Index. Those winters had less than a quarter inch of precipitation and record heat. 2017-18 was at 225, largely saved from record heat or dryness by the great SOI crash of February 2018. Just something to keep in mind. Not expecting a La Nina, just trying to refine my methods for future La Ninas in the Southwest.
  2. Still no 100F readings in Albuquerque as of 7/15/19 - last time that happened was at the last solar minimum in 2008 and 2009. Going to be hot this week, so we'll have a shot at hitting 100F by the weekend. But I think we stay below. Only 26/88 years - 30% - since 1931 have hit 100F on any day between 7/16 and 12/31 in Albuquerque. Trade off I suppose is that we're having a pretty extended spell where every day is 95F+ with relatively high (for us) dewpoints (45-55 degree dewpoints).
  3. Jamstec had a very hot Fall nationally. The warmth in Nino 3.4 lasted long enough into Spring/June, that I'd expect someone to be pretty hot in August/September. Probably not the Midwest. It will be the South or the West most likely. October is relatively unaffected by ENSO, but it does respond to the AMO, and it has warmed, so I'd expect October to be pretty warm too, although I haven't looked at it specifically. My outlook for Summer was only through September. October is always the key month - parts of the national pattern that setup in October will remain features through the following May.
  4. Neutral and La Nina composites - for when those winters follow an El Nino winter. Middle graphic is low-solar Neutral/La Nina winters following an El Nino since 1930. Jamstec looks like the middle graphic.
  5. I had this for August - Albuquerque hit 97F the other day. Still no 100F readings. Only a 35% chance we'll hit 100F historically, after 7/11. It doesn't seem to work in La Nina years, but Neutral winters following a Summer without hitting 100F are pretty cold here, on balance.
  6. If you look at the monthly NAO data, 2012 kind of stands out as another May-July period with predominantly -NAO values. The European has the El Nino falling off slowly into Neutral territory into December now, and it did pretty well last year, and OK in 2017 at this time. The waters by Alaska are much warmer than in 2017 at this time, even though Nino 3.4 is similar for the moment. For at least the next few months I think Nino 4 is warm enough to prevent Nino 3.4 from falling into La Nina territory, but Nino 3 is already on Tropical Tidbits.
  7. June 2019 subsurface was +0.24C. In the 1979-2018 era, that has always translated to a weak La Nina or weak El Nino, or a Neutral. Subsurface as an indicator will be about 50% stronger by September, when R-squared is 0.75 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt
  8. The blob by itself is just part of the PDO. It was there in 2018-19...it just didn't matter because the waters east of Japan were warm - consistent with a -PDO, while the blob by Alaska was warm (+PDO). I'm looking pretty hard at the years following El Ninos with cold Junes nationally. My general thinking is you have a colder eastern tropical Pacific relative to the western tropical Pacific, with a warmer AMO and more positive PDO than last year. Still low solar. Winter will be following an El Nino. Cool Junes in ABQ with similar SSTs in June (28.25C in Nino 3.4): 1931, 1940, 1941, 1965, 1987, 1991, 1992, 2009. Composite of that is a cold winter in the Southwest. But I'd probably throw out 2009 and 1965 (after La Ninas). These years just about all had big -NAO readings in June like 2019. In the modern era, 2016-17 is probably most like 1931-32 - a very warm Nino 1.2 but a cold Nino 3.4. So my analogs would probably be something like 1931, 1987, 1992, 2004, 2016 1987 is considered an El Nino but had a cold subsurface if you look at the data for that. 1931, 1992 were not El Ninos, but had some characteristics of El Ninos. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Equatorial Upper 300m temperature Average anomaly based on 1981-2010 Climatology (deg C) YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W 1987 8 -.28 -.05 .20 1987 9 -.47 -.29 -.25 1987 10 -.43 -.23 -.17 1987 11 -.51 -.40 -.37 1987 12 -.52 -.54 -.67 1988 1 -.47 -.46 -.45 1988 2 -.77 -.86 -.88 1988 3 -.94 -1.10 -1.31 1988 4 -1.10 -1.43 -1.76 I'm kind of tempted to say something like a blend of 1931, 1987, 2004, 2004, 2016, 2017, 2017 if we were to have a flat Neutral winter, but it is too early. Years ONI DJF AMO N-A SUN Jul-Jun ONI DJF(p) Modoki PDO N-A Monsoon 1931 -0.3 0.186 25.1 1.4 -0.29 0.38 3.54 1987 0.7 -0.003 65.3 1.1 0.28 1.21 4.12 2004 0.5 0.222 55.3 0.3 0.48 0.47 4.06 2004 0.5 0.222 55.3 0.3 0.48 0.47 4.06 2016 -0.3 0.279 28.5 2.4 -0.48 1.06 3.09 2017 -0.8 0.192 15.0 -0.3 -0.08 0.30 5.02 2017 -0.8 0.192 15.0 -0.3 -0.08 0.30 5.02 Blend 0.00 0.184 37.09 0.80 0.04 0.60 4.13 DJF Nino 3.4 DJF Prior 3.4 1931 26.24 1930 28.00 1987 27.34 1986 27.76 2004 27.15 2003 26.94 2004 27.15 2003 26.94 2016 26.30 2015 29.13 2017 25.72 2016 26.30 2017 25.72 2016 26.30 Blend 26.52 27.34 Will obviously revise this. It isn't what I'm forecasting - but it is a low solar Neutral, where it is colder by South America than in Nino 3.4, with a warm Atlantic, low solar, following an El Nino of very similar strength to 2018-19 (27.34C. v 27.39C). Idea is the cold would be maybe, -0.3C in Nino 1.2, and then bleed less cold to the West, and Nino 4 would still be warm.
  9. I mentioned at some point that I thought July would be the best shot at real heat for our friends in Michigan. So far, my Summer analogs from May are working rather well for July although it is still early. You can even see I had NM warm despite the majority of the West being cold in July.
  10. I went White Water Rafting today on the Rio Grande River. Rapids were pretty intense - lots of level four rapids with 8 foot, or greater drops in the final section. The highest peaks on the way up had snow on them still - remarkable here for July. The water was around 60F - so it felt amazing when it splashed on you against the 90F+ heat/dryness. New Mexico is remarkably dry even in our wet months, so after six hours in 60F water/the raft, by the time I walked five minutes from the raft to my car to change, my clothes were completely dry - but 90+ with ~10% humidity and sunshine does that. You guys should look into White Water Rafting on the Rio Grande or Rio Chama - it's a great way to see the effects of weather and enjoy nature while getting exercise.
  11. Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 If you plot June SSTs in Nino 3.4 v. ONI in the following DJF, you'd expect around +0.5C for winter, but there is wide variation, and the largest miss from the best-fit line is 2017, which was 28.0C+ in June 2017 before going to a 25.7C La Nina. Here are monthly SSTs - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2018 7 27.42 27.26 0.16 2018 8 26.95 26.91 0.04 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.90 2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72 2019 5 28.50 27.85 0.65 2019 6 28.25 27.65 0.60 My blend of 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 for Summer had June at 28.20C in Nino 3.4 2015 6 28.90 27.65 1.25 1993 6 28.08 27.60 0.48 1992 6 28.30 27.60 0.70 1987 6 28.64 27.43 1.21 1966 6 27.63 27.35 0.29 1966 6 27.63 27.35 0.29 Analog Blend: 28.20C.
  12. I don't really expect a La Nina to develop, there is still warmth at the surface and below the surface in the Tropical Pacific. That said, I lean toward Neutral at the moment. My gut is something like a warm Nino 4, average Nino 3.4 / Nino 3, and cool Nino 1.2 for winter - but we'll see. Will be much clearer in August.
  13. For anyone curious, a -NAO in June is a fairly strong indicator for heat in the SE in July. Same for a warm Nino 3.4 in June (it's probably around 28.35C for June, +0.6C or so v. long-term means).
  14. All the Nino zones were beneath El Nino thresholds this week.
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