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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

raindancewx

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raindancewx last won the day on November 2 2018

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  1. raindancewx

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    For the next few months, expecting to see slow, but steady weakening of the El Nino. Not much warmth left below the surface - it was near 200m in March, now only around 100m.
  2. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    There aren't many areas of the US where it can't snow in April, even late April. Had about an inch at my place on 4/29/2017. 11,100% of normal (biased by few reporting sites) I've been pretty happy with my snow outlook for the US, first snowflake to last snowflake, July-June, from last October. I was too low for Maine, VA and the NW, a bit high in parts of West TX and NM. But I had the Eastern Dakotas / Plains getting slammed as well as the Eastern Lakes, with the NE Urban Corridor largely missing out. NYC, Boston, Philly are got boned as expected. Colorado and the highest terrain of the West will continue to fill in for snow relative to averages through the next three weeks. Above 8,000 feet in NM you can get huge snows in NM through about mid-May, but lower in Colorado and the Dakotas.
  3. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Nothing like 3700% of normal snow equivalency. Yesterday -
  4. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    SOI drops from 4/9-4/13 have delivered here - ten days later, it is pouring rain, with thunderstorms, hail, and heavy snow above 9,000 feet. Wettest April for Albuquerque since at least 2007. After 1-3 feet of snow tonight on the mountain tops, these numbers should be incredible tomorrow.
  5. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    It's been warm in the East this April like I forecast in my outlook. I keep getting burned on the Dakotas, I had that little blotch of cold over WY/CO/MT for April. Our mountains in Northern NM may get another 6-20 inches of snow at elevations above 9,000-10,000 feet. Spring has really delivered for moisture and snow pack.
  6. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    CPC's May map looks similar to past months. We'll see what their final outlook looks like. I expect May to get very warm at some point here, but it may be the second half of the month.
  7. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Little late, but the Euro is maybe catching on to the 35 point SOI drop mid-month with a huge storm over the SW.
  8. raindancewx

    Summer 2019 Outlook and Discussion

    This El Nino isn't collapsing as rapidly in Summer as 2009-10 or 2015-16, so I don't think Summer will be like those years. I kind of like a blend of 1987, 1987, 1993, 2015 off the top of my head but I'd have to look. The severe flooding in the middle of the country, and top-five warmth in Nino 3.4 for FMA (since 1950) need to be incorporated. Nino 3.4 warmth in March is highly correlated to warmth in the SE in July too. Y/Y, highs in the Southwest have been colder than 2017-18 in every month starting October. We tend to have colder highs in El Ninos, but the persistence of that is unusual, and it may continue through the Summer since we've had a rainy/snowy Fall, Winter and Spring. Summers between El Nino and Neutral winters are what I'm looking at now - 1952, 1959, 1966, 1978, 1992, 2003. I think we have an elevated chance of a Neutral next year, but I want to see if conditions look like those years first. Solar activity is a bit of a wildcard too, it does seem to be coming up, April is around 14 sunspots so far. AMO is still cold relative to recent years and other oceans - raw Atlantic temps are comparable to the warmest years of the 1950s again.
  9. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Storm coming through the SW today/yesterday is consistent with the 10 point SOI drop from 4/5 to 4/6, which tends to put big storms in this area in 10 days (+/- 2). It's always fun to see people freak out when its 45F at the height of afternoon heating here in mid April with rain. I still expect some kind of big storm to show over the SW between 4/20 and 4/23 given the massive SOI drop (35 points in two days from 4/9 to 4/11). It may be like the storm in March that just surprised people by popping up out of nowhere in early March with major snows and a tornado outbreak. I'm sure Cliche remembers, it was near the beginning of "the season of cliche", i.e. the relatively frequent and widespread tornado/severe outbreaks.
  10. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Good ski season here. Today, the resorts closed. Will be interesting to see what the final numbers come to for ski visits. There is some commentary on climate stuff in there, but I'm not really sure I agree with it. In general, we have poor winters for precipitation in the Southwest when La Ninas come in well below 26.0C for all of DJF (26.5C is the 1951-2010 average for DJF), but it is getting harder for that to happen as the Tropics warm. Since the oceans are tilted toward warmth, you also tend to see big warm ups in Nino 3.4 year/year which favors cold/wet winters here. So even though 2011-12 was a La Nina, we did well since it was much warmer in Nino 3.4 than in 2010-11. The mountains had fantastic conditions in 2011-12. Last year was a 25.72C La Nina after a warmer cold Neutral/La Nina in 2016-17, opposite of 2011-12 (also a 25.7C La Nina) in that regard. https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/new-mexico-ski-areas-riding-high-into-season-s-home/article_6e6b451c-a448-5baa-8121-86f0f42b3f08.html Ski Santa Fe had about 80 inches of snowfall by the end of the 2017-18 season, according to the resort, compared to 276 inches this season — including 3 inches of fresh snow this week — as it heads into its final weekend. That’s better than the 238 inches at Taos Ski Valley, which saw 11 inches of new powder from this week’s storm. With an average snowfall of more than 170 inches across New Mexico’s ski resorts by late March, Brooks said, this season has been the fifth-best in the past 25 years.Brooks didn’t have a final tally for the number of customers at New Mexico ski areas this season because several are open through Sunday. But he expected total visits to be around 900,000 — more than the industry’s five-year average. For now, as the extended ski season comes to a close — with many resorts opening, as planned, on Thanksgiving Day and staying open an extra week — skiing officials and enthusiasts are celebrating a strong season. Bradley said Sipapu had seen an all-time record of just over 56,000 skiers as of March 29. Ski Santa Fe saw at least double the number of customers this season as it did the year before, Abruzzo said, though he didn’t have exact numbers. At Taos Ski Valley, Hegeman said in an email, visitation was up 75 percent.
  11. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    The cold in the West is starting to show up for the monthly aggregates in April now, with the East still warm generally. I don't think this Summer is going to be particularly extreme overall, but if the El Nino does collapse in Summer, it will probably turn very hot for a time somewhere. I don't really think its a cool Summer though. The signal is for a lot of moisture. Where I am, a lot of things that haven't happened in a while have been happening lately - 1) Wettest / coldest October high since 2000 2) Most lows of 32F or less since 2012-13 (may still beat it) 3) Wettest March since 2005. Wettest Jan-Mar since 2005. 4) Coldest March high since 2010 / Coldest winter high since 2010 5) Wettest June since 1996. New Mexico has had some very good Monsoon years lately, but they've been July driven - August is favored half the time historically as the top Monsoon month but has not been 20% above average in over a decade. So I do wonder if that is coming and what August would look like nationally for that - probably a huge high over TX and a thermal low over Death Valley. There are also some indications that solar activity is going to keep coming up - if that accelerates, would have some impacts in Summer. Low solar in Summer favors wetness with cool shots from the Rockies east. My hunch is the East will have a lot of very slightly cooler than normal days (-2 to -5) and a handful of very warm days that push it to slightly warmer than normal overall - think a few +10 to +30 days in June-Sept. It'll be like how in winter Boston had days in the mid 60s in Dec/Jan - translate that into Summer.
  12. raindancewx

    ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

    https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO New PDO website from Nate Mantua (JISAO) - March value was +0.37. Nov-Apr will be around +0.4 as I forecast for my winter outlook.
  13. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    European has the El Nino continuing (above black line) into early Summer at least...then outcomes become less certain.
  14. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Nice and cold today in Albuquerque - don't think we hit 55F. I had April slightly cool in the West and slightly warm in the East, but near normal just about everywhere, we'll see how that looks by the end of the month. It's interesting looking at how March looked v. October - you had an MJO wave through 1-2-3 (and then 4 in March) before it died. The massive SOI drops recently remind me of February when drops from -14 to -30 occurred in two days or less. I don't think it will snow in Malibu again, but that aspect of the pattern seems to be coming up later in April.
  15. raindancewx

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    25 point SOI drop in two days should lead to another big storm / severe outbreak later in April.
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