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ClicheVortex2014

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ClicheVortex2014 last won the day on June 24

ClicheVortex2014 had the most liked content!

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    Dayton, Ohio

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    Severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and tornado climatology

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  1. Sheesh, Barry is dealing with quite a bit of shear. Makes you wonder how much stronger it'd get if there was less shear.
  2. I'm no tropical cyclone expert but I'm pretty sure having almost enough effective bulk shear to support actual supercells in the vicinity of the center of the storm is probably not favorable for a hurricane. It's fine though, the model that "nailed Michael" is still showing it being a category 5
  3. It appears 3km NAM is coming back to reality. For 8PM Friday it has Barry at 945mb. 18z run had 914mb. 12z run had 868mb.
  4. Summer had a slow start but it's really kicking it up now. Today was the 10th day of 90+ degrees at CVG... also the warmest day of the year at 93 degrees. Average high is around 87.
  5. Don't think this has been posted yet but hurricane and storm surge watches have been issued for southern LA.
  6. Convection is really exploding near the center of the circulation. Not sure if it's more of a result of diurnal intensification or just general strengthening. Or both
  7. One of my favorite things from learning about tropical cyclones is how easy you can see their warm core (surface low pressure/high pressure aloft) characteristics on satellite loops. The low pressure/counter-clockwise rotation is obviously easy to see... but look more carefully and you can see clockwise rotation in the cirrus clouds.
  8. Some fun images from the 3km NAM. Updraft helicity looks like ground scouring you'd see from an intense tornado Sounding on the southeast flank of the hurricane has just a little bit of vertical motion... oh yeah, and some winds. No hodograph or tropopause though. And apparently there's no hazardous weather with this sounding. Sounding inside the eye... notice how the environment is much drier above 1km... definitely have some clearing above that.
  9. And I've seen some on Twitter say 3km deserves credibility because apparently it performed well with Michael Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Especially when that clock isn't designed to handle tropical activity. Well played
  10. GFS brings it down to 980mb. Further west than the 18z run (988mb), but further east than the 12z run (990mb). Still over 3 days away from peak intensity but this feels like a scenario like Harvey and Michael where the models underdo the last minute rapid intensification
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