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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

ClicheVortex2014

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ClicheVortex2014 last won the day on March 17

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    Athens, Ohio

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    Severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and tornado climatology

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  1. ClicheVortex2014

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    This also may tie into the MJO post I had a few days ago since I'm fairly sure I remember reading that an extended Pacific jet can be forced by an active MJO of some phase. GFS and GEFS are showing a new MJO emerging. On the other hand, GEFSBC (whatever that is) is showing a much more reluctant scenario. This would be interesting because this wave starts at phase 8 or 1. The last wave nearly died a couple times but rapidly strengthened around the same point that the December-January MJO wave hit a brick wall... so to speak. Now if GFS/GEFS are right, this new wave might start around the same point that the February-March MJO wave strengthened and the December-January wave died. Something about the setup seems to be favoring genesis in that region since February.
  2. GFS still has serious issues with capping for the Plains. Southern extent of the corridor of high EHI Northern extent If we do have issues with capping and nothing happens in the Plains, our attention should then turn to the OV. When nothing pops in the Plains, that allows the EML to advect east into the OV and/or Dixie alley. As you can see is the case here. GFS is showing a marginal severe threat due to relatively weak moisture and weak directional shear. However, GFS struggled with this same issues in the buildup to the Pi day outbreak, and we found out GFS was proven wrong. Euro handled it much better. Euro actually has weaker moisture than GFS, but has more instability further east than GFS. This might mean that activity popped by the warm front will be strong to severe in Illinois. Euro occludes quicker than GFS, so GFS has a higher severe threat further east. Euro might have some stuff popping Thursday in the north which might explain why Euro looks less impressive beyond then. GFS also has a weaker cap in the north, so I'm thinking Kansas has the best chance for severe weather despite better parameters being further south.
  3. ClicheVortex2014

    March 24 Severe Weather

    BMX discussion shows why having a masters is becoming more common now in the NWS. I understand the words they're saying but I don't understand why unidirectional shear oriented partially orthogonal to a front supports supercell development. I guess something about the front implicitly adds spin.
  4. ClicheVortex2014

    March 24 Severe Weather

    Really confused how there's supercells down in Alabama with this wind profile. How can an updraft rotate if the wind is coming out of the west through the entire cloud? Edit: might have something to do with the fact that these are right movers, maybe that's helping them spin. I dunno. Just puzzled how you could forecast something like this when the wind profile clearly doesn't favor supercells.
  5. ClicheVortex2014

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    GEFS and EPS are showing potential for an extended Pacific jet in the first week of April. Warm and stormy implications there. The SOI has returned back to neutral territory after a stretch of moderately negative values in the 2nd week of March. I think those values are correlated with the cool weather we've seen recently.
  6. GFS has the looks of a significant severe event but I still have reservations. First day... Thursday. Western OK... entire profile is pretty dry and wind shear really isn't that impressive. Second day Southern OK... profile's still pretty dry but better than the previous day. Wind shear is probably enough for supercells now. Verbatim there's a bit of a cap but that doesn't worry me that much at this point knowing the GFS.
  7. GFS and Euro agree on a system developing late this work week. Although the dew point is expected to be in the low to mid 60's, steep lapse rates will help increase instability. Shear is definitely favorable for supercells, and it looks like low-level shear will be favorable for tornadoes. Only thing that might hold back tornado potential is weak low-level moisture.
  8. ClicheVortex2014

    March 24 Severe Weather

    Supercell behind it might be going tornado warned soon. Strange day... parameters really don't look that great.
  9. ClicheVortex2014

    March 24 Severe Weather

    Confirmed tornado. Hail core had 75.5 dBz earlier.
  10. ClicheVortex2014

    March 24 Severe Weather

    Missed an apparent tornado earlier. Had about 100 MPH rotation at this point. Still tornado warned with very strong inflow but the supercell is looking funkier.
  11. ClicheVortex2014

    March 24 Severe Weather

    Been busy the past 2 days, but before that I wasn't really impressed with the severe threat here. I was surprised to see an enhanced risk. Still doesn't look like a very exciting day, but days like this certainly help get us in the mood. This is the bowling ball system I talked about in the spring thread about a week ago. Not nearly as strong as Euro had it initially, but these types of systems can surely produce some severe weather regardless.
  12. ClicheVortex2014

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    The poor Gulf of Mexico. So dry. Yet there's still a slight risk in the Texas panhandle. It's getting to be that time of the year.
  13. ClicheVortex2014

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    My Mesoscale Meteorology professor was saying yesterday even though we don't have any credible major severe weather threats right now, the progressive pattern including troughs entering through the west is certainly what you want to see going forward if you want to see severe weather. So, maybe nothing now, but if this continues as warmth and moisture return gets stronger and more persistent, this could be a sign of active times ahead.
  14. ClicheVortex2014

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Michael Ventrice regarding the MJO. Where we're at now is comparable to February 9 which was the end of the +PNA regime of the first half of winter. Looks like the activity during the string of outbreaks from February 23 to March 14 is comparable to roughly April 7 ish. Verbatim it would be April 10 or so, but the slow propagation he's talking about would make it earlier than April 10. I drew a bit on his image. The red line in February marks the start of the string of outbreaks. The red line in April is where I think the anomalies are the most similar to the previous MJO (eyeballed it). The first green line is the propagation of the first MJO.... the second green line is identical... all I did was move it down to match the beginning of the new MJO... so the green line can be used as the expected propagation if this MJO follows the propagation speed of the last one. Clearly CFS doesn't move it along as fast as the last one moved, which is what Michael is talking about. So with a little imagination you can understand why the second red line would need to be moved up a number of days if Michael's right about the CFS moving it along too slowly. You can also notice a bit of a trend in the PNA. It decreased to negative when the MJO wave started in early February. It switched back to positive near the end of the MJO wave in mid March. Now we're about to see the PNA decrease again... at least to neutral... as we approach April. Also worth noting that the 7+ day GEFS forecast underestimated how far the PNA would dip in early February, then eventually it caught on. In laymens terms... it appears we'll have an MJO wave in April that's similar in some capacity to the one in late February/first half of March. This means potential for some big severe events as we saw in the aforementioned period.
  15. ClicheVortex2014

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    GFS/GEFS are hinting at another MJO wave. This would mean an active weather pattern like we saw in late February/first half of March... except this time during the most dangerous time of the year. PNA has been decently positive for the first time since January, starting after the Pi day severe outbreak. But it may be heading back to at least neutral.
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