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WINTER IS HERE!

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ClicheVortex2014

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    Athens, Ohio

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  1. ClicheVortex2014

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    No I got that, but that's like congratulating someone on acing a class because they aced the first quiz. Computer models are never right. Furthermore, things like recurving Typhoons/wavebreaks and SSWs/lack-there-of can easily make a monthly or seasonal forecast to bust. These kinds of events are handled by GFS/Euro, not seasonal forecasting models, and they can have big long-term implications.
  2. ClicheVortex2014

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Congratulating winter lovers on a good winter before winter has even started...
  3. ClicheVortex2014

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    2 of this years top 5 biggest tornado outbreaks happened this fall. I went back 18 years to see how many times this has happened and I singled those years out. I came up with 2013 (11/17 and 10/31), 2010 (10/26, 12/31), 2005 (11/27, 11/15), and 2002 (11/10, 12/18). Since average monthly reports of hail and wind are harder to come by than tornadoes, I'll only focus on comparing tornadoes to average. If the first number (i.e., tornado), then it's above average. If it's blue, then it's below average. Order goes as such: tornadoes, hail, wind Severe reports in Dec-Feb 2013-14 Dec: 16, 1, 331 Jan: 4, 6, 165 Feb: 41,48, 459 Severe reports in Dec-Feb 2010-11 (tornadoes, hail, wind) Dec: 60, 37, 129 Jan: 10, 9, 63 Feb: 61, 96, 664 Severe reports in Dec-Feb 2005-06 (tornadoes, hail, wind) Dec: 25, 245, 48 Jan: 47, 211, 136 Feb: 12, 190, 112 Severe reports in Dec-Feb 2002-03 (tornadoes, hail, wind) Dec: 99, 255, 291 Jan: 0, 4, 1 Feb: 18, 94, 226 Average tornadoes by month: December: 24 January: 35 February: 29 3/4 of the Decembers saw above average tornado reports 1/4 of the Januarys saw above average tornado reports 2/4 of the Februarys saw above average tornado reports ... so I guess the conclusion that may be drawn here is that, given an active fall (relative to the rest of the year), December and February are the most likely months to have above average severe weather. In terms of ENSO, This year will probably be a high-end weak or low-end moderate Nino 2013-14 was a cold-neutral event 2010-11 was a high-end moderate Nina 2005-06 was a weak Nina 2002-03 was a high-end weak/low-end moderate Nino So if this year is going to follow 2002-03, then we can expect some more severe weather in December, a closed Gulf of Mexico in January, and an awakening Gulf in February.
  4. ClicheVortex2014

    November 15-16 | Snow/Ice Storm

    While SW OH got a pretty decent ice storm, SE OH got 2" of cold rain. The soil is ridiculously wet and there's puddles everywhere. Oh yeah, and no snow or ice.
  5. ClicheVortex2014

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Probably the clearest sign that El Nino is here, whether it's official or not. This is about the most stereotypical El Nino pattern for the CONUS that you can get.
  6. ClicheVortex2014

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Never fails
  7. ClicheVortex2014

    Fall 2018 | Outlook and Discussion

    Euro OP appears to be an outlier regarding potential for a warmup/storm Thanksgiving week.
  8. Total of 26 tornadoes. SPC had it a little too far west. I don't think they can be blamed for this... looked like Mississippi was gonna get it but something caused the area to dry up.
  9. Thanks! Tally at the beginning of the day. 13 of the wind reports are tagged with "possible tornado", which is more than I've seen in a while. Not sure we'll end up with more tornado reports than 10/31, but it should be pretty impressive. Rough verification for SPC. West half of the enhanced risk (and where it appeared the highest threat would be) didn't get much, but the east half did. Like I said last night, I think the cooler/dry air in the north half of Mississippi was to blame because storms were obviously having trouble strengthening.
  10. Today sorta lived up to my expectations. Started off slow and as a result Mississippi mostly got spared. Aside from late afternoon, not as many obvious supercell structures as I thought there'd be. But once the squall got going, it sure did spit out tornadoes. Looks like Tennessee and northeast Mississippi got nailed, and I've seen 4 debris signatures tonight. 3 tornado warnings and 6 severe warnings are valid right now but I need to go to bed.
  11. TDS just a little northeast of Tupelo, MS. 101 MPH gate-to-gate rotation 2200 feet above ground. Probably the last thing on peoples mind is tornadoes at midnight on November 6th, but here we are
  12. Got 5 tornado warnings active. Squall tornadoes spin up very quick and are therefore sometimes unwarned, so the number of tornado warnings doesn't necessarily reflect how many tornadoes may be going on in this case.
  13. Gotcha. Not sure because GR2 is showing pretty modest winds, like 50 MPH and some 60 MPH with the squall. Are you looking at the winds right over the squall? Also keep in mind that winds will appear stronger the further away you go from the radar because the radar beam is slanted. I see areas of 80+ MPH winds pretty far away from the radar site, but it's actually 8000 feet above the surface, which is probably like 750mb.
  14. Well given the convection and 50-60 knot winds just off the surface, I'd imagine there's at least 50-60 MPH winds with the squall. I guess it's not providing severe winds, but there's gotta be something close to it.
  15. ClicheVortex2014

    November 5-7 OV Storms

    Squall producing a swath of tornado warnings in Kentucky with... uh... some low-level SRH to work with
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