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ClicheVortex2014

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ClicheVortex2014 last won the day on May 6

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About ClicheVortex2014

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    Dayton, Ohio

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    Severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and tornado climatology

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  1. We're just about in it right now. Things are mostly linear now so the main threat is QLCS tornadoes and sporadic embedded supercells. The threat for those long-lived strong tornadoes would be with discrete supercells but with the sun setting the chances for pre-frontal activity is decreasing. Texas has some crazy tornadic supercells right now.
  2. Lubbock is basically telling storm chasers what to do in the tornado warning
  3. This kind of relied on warm sector cells popping which has always been a difficult thing for models to figure out and probably not something that will change for a while. Another complication was storm interaction between the cells that developed on the dryline.
  4. Cells ahead of them are strengthening. Probably in an even more favorable environment than the Hobart supercells are.
  5. Parameters are off the charts for central OK. Thanks to the parameters exceeding max value, you can see that there's some attempt at development ahead of these 2 tornadic supercells. Not as easily seen is another attempt near Altus. No tornadoes are confirmed on the ground right now.
  6. Getting complicated again. Got another supercell that developed south of the dominant. Both are strongly rotating.
  7. I think the cells that keep feeding into the supercell are related to the flow of the supercell... especially since it looks like it's feeding the supercell. Anyway I think this is the monster supercell we were expecting. Also appears to be some cells popping ahead of it--not associated with this supercell, as well as some cells popping in SE OK. Strange this cell isn't confirmed but I'm sure we have hundreds of eyes on this storm.
  8. Good thing there's nothing immediately threatening OKC metro
  9. Still watching that Altus supercell. The structure is getting better and better. Completely discrete and already in an extremely tornadic environment going into the diurnal LLJ max.
  10. New warning implies it’s turning right. Looks like it may be splitting as well.
  11. The leading supercells are finally consolidating or something... maybe soon they'll finally take advantage of the environment.
  12. Yeah the tornado threat is still ramping up. We should really see it jump in about an hour or two when the LLJ starts kicking in, then it'll stay high for a few hours.
  13. Latest MCD states guidance is trending away from cells popping in south-central OK which is great news so far for OKC metro. However that's no help for those west of that. The supercells about to cross into SW OK are in an environment that's nearly off-the-charts for significant tornadoes. Only other times I know of this happening is 4/27/11 and 6/16/14 (Pilger tornadoes). Obviously there's a complicating factor here which is the supercells are literally on top of each other. This'll limit the tornado potential until one or the other can dominate.
  14. A cell north of Altus is getting its act together I think. If it does it should go tornadic quickly
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