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Spring Fever Spreading

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Perfect Day

Found 5 results

  1. PREFACE NOVEL - Perfume & Blizzard, a war of seasons The time has come for winter to take revenge on those who have dismissed it, laughed at it and wanted to replace it with Spring. Winter intends to show those that mocked it, who roars in February is still the lord of ice and snow, the lord of blizzards; Lord Winter Solstice. To make that roar loud and clear, a Nor´easter shall humble those who intended to start a coup in favor of the lord of fragrance and flowers; Lord Spring Equinox. Taken by rage, Lord Spring Equinox warns Lord Winter Solstice that it has the ability to deploy one of its Atlantic Ocean´s soldiers, the SE Ridge to flood the eastern seaboard with its warm air to offset one of Lord Winter Solstice´s most beloved weapon, the snow. Keeping that in mind, all those beings being kept hostage to this power struggle, the people of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast CONUS, become aware that the SE ridge is a force to be reckoned with and that it should not be neglected or forgotten. It needs to be watched every step of the way to see if it will be able to further Lord Spring Equinox´s influence over the region and keep Lord Winter Solstice´s loyal subjects in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast apprehended under the most severe punishment of all, warm air in winter with no snow. But we all know that Lord Winter Solstice, although beaten down since December by a hostile rogue split flow pattern, not being able to count on one of its most loyal soldiers, the -NAO, which has been kidnapped by its evil twin the +NAO for many months now, will strive to make a come back and avenge all those involved with this Lord Spring Equinox led coup, as well as in the process, be able to count on the Greenland blocking, another of Lord Winter Solstice´s loyal member, the royal guard gatekeeper which has been unable to manifest itself due to the poisoning of the atmospheric flow over North America by many masked unrevealed Lord Spring Equinox supports. Acting out of deep fear and staunch resolution that there should not be Spring during Winter´s reign time, Lord Winter Solstice´s bountiful supports in and around the frontline, resort to consulting and interpreting while trying to trust the world most famous group of seers; weather prophets called: Weather Guidance Model Operational & Ensemble Association aka WGMOEA. Lord Winter Solstice´s supporter hopes rest on the shoulders of the WGMOEA as they yearn for most needed support and good news from the weather seers that Lord Winter Solstice and its loyal soldiers will be able to fight back and squash the ongoing coup by releasing the frontline from Lord Spring Equinox´s oppressive untimely rule using Lord Winter Solstice´s most powerful weapon, the Blizzard. They hope, they say, that the Blizzard with its frostbiting winds, heavy wind-driven snows, thunderous snowfall, and deep low surface pressure, can prevail and hence the frontline finally rejoice with a celebration at Lord Winter Solstice´s, whose nickname is P. Master, headquarters located in Long Island, NY. Please see the next page for some images provided by the WGMOEA of the future of this battle. Possible Battle Outcomes WGMOEA Depictions A different take on this thread starter post. Hopefully, a good outcome is the final result from this battle.
  2. Just a glance at the 18z HRDPS was enough to make this thread. Though I don't think we have any members from this region, Twitter is useful for looking up online OBS.
  3. PREFACE Getting past the January 20th time frame and storm, there are indications that a cold air invasion is becoming more and more apparent for the eastern CONUS as we fast approach the last 10 days of January. With that in mind and considering that the southern stream over the CONUS should continue to be actively keeping the GOMEX rich moisture content available to be lifted and gathered for storm formation, I see a rather good opportunity for a storm to impact the region, which would include the Mid-Atlantic and even New England depending on how amplified the storm becomes. For a more amplified storm to come to be, we need a solid set of teleconnections (AO, EPO, NAO, and PNA) and the development of Greenland into North Pole blocking, or at least a Greenland block. Given the actual data available from the EPS 46 days and EPS products, the January 24-26 time frame, would benefit from a mostly solid teleconnection package and perhaps the advent of a Greenland into North Pole blocking. The blocking though, may not be totally established yet during this time frame, but by the end of January, it could be the big boss in town. Long range operational model signals do exist for a storm in this time frame, but as I usually do, I try to avoid using the operational model storm signals for possibilities that are in the 12 to 16 days in the future time frame for the thread openers, instead relying on the ensemble guidance signals or other longer range weekly or monthly models. Given that some operational models present "forecasts" or outputs for 15 to 16 days out, I use that range as my limit to consider opening a storm thread, to avoid turning the thread into a long-range pattern discussion thread. Overall Set up Continued southern stream activity with ample GOMEX moisture to be tapped and lifted along with deeper cold air presence perhaps with a high-pressure presence and CAD development. Teleconnection robust package, possible initial developing stages of Greenland blocking, aiding in a more teemed northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Track-wise, we could have one of the 3 most traditional tracks, the western/central PA cutter track, the northern Mid-Atlantic tucked to the coast track and the beloved benchmark track. Which track would be the verified one come the time frame, would be determined in good part by the depth of the cold air in place, blocking high-pressure placement, possible phasing time, if one ever comes to be, and interestingly enough, whatever influence the initial development stages of the Greenland block would have on this time frame, if any at all. Most of these mentioned can certainly be a result of how strong the teleconnection package for this time frame is. Below, an image showing the 3 possible storm tracks can be seen. Storm Track Visual Aid Before we move on the next page, on which you will be able to see the forecasted EPS North American and Northern Hemisphere setup, the EPS 46-days teleconnections and EPS precipitation output for this time frame, I would like to finish this page, with a couple of EPS control runs images and an very interesting, perhaps surprising to some, seasonal CFS MSLP output for this time frame. CFS Surface Pressure It´s very intriguing or interesting to me at least, that very robust storm would be shown on the CFS at such a time range, near the time frame that this thread discusses. It´s a neat piece of information or perhaps, let´s say evidence. Jan 9th, 2019 12Z EPS CONTROL (tucked and benchmark track hybrid) Jan 10th, 2019 00Z EPS CONTROL (western PA track hybrid) On the next page, you will see additional data related to this time frame. To start off this page, please see the Northern Hemisphere and North America set up for the time frame in discussion. January 7th, 2019, 00Z EPS 46 day Northern Hemisphere North America There´s no way to look at this setup and be indifferent to it. That argues for a real winter over the eastern CONUS. We can see the lower heights over northern Canada connect to the lower heights over the SE CONUS, setting up a deep negatively oriented trough over eastern North America, and the developing Greenland block. All that if were to verify, would translate to a much colder eastern United States and a much more promising storm track from the southeast to northeast CONUS with the less progressive component courtesy of the Greenland blocking. As we continue, you can see below the EPS 24-hour precipitation for the time frame in discussion. Jan 9th, 2019 12Z Jan 10th, 2019 00Z And now the EPS 46-days teleconnections (AO, EPO, NAO, and PNA) AO EPO There is not much to argue concerning this EPS AO/EPO combo as it relates to the time frame. Both teleconnections are in their negative state, which is primordial for the availability of a strong and more sustained cold air presence over the eastern CONUS. The -AO is around -1.5 to -1.7 while the -EPO is around -1.3 to -1.5, which is the most negative it has been in recent weeks. We like this. NAO PNA This combo, the way I interpret it, looks very promising and supportive of a storm track that could deliver the wintry goods and be more amplified, and perhaps not so quick to exit the region. The -NAO can lay a hand in allowing blocking conditions over the eastern areas of North America while the +PNA would argue for a ridge over the western US and depending on how it interacts with the -EPO aforementioned, a deeper colder trough could pass through the eastern US. Notice that the -PNA is in positive to negative trajectory during the time frame in discussion, and flips to negative sometime around January 28th. That changing magnitude could play a positive role in the flow pattern. Given the data, this time frame looks like it has more robust aspects to it to allow the region to at least have a better shot at a wintry storm that may impact areas that are snowless since November, What do you guys think? Does this one have a standing chance? Or is it another dream only reality? Later! UPDATES: Jan 11th, 2018 January 10th, 2019, 00Z EPS 46 day Northern Hemisphere North America January 10th, 2019, 00Z EPS 46 day AO EPO This combo has suffered a blow and is weaker now as compared to the January 7th run. The -AO continues pretty solid. However, the EPO has changed to neutral to slightly negative. Before on the 7th of January, it was decently in a negative state. NAO PNA This combo also has suffered from changes. Although the NAO continues to be negative, it is not as negative as compared to the output from the January 7th run. As for the PNA, it went from a more solid positive state to a slightly positive state, basically neutral and flat. We will see how this evolves on the next update scheduled to occur on January 14th, 2019.
  4. Major winter storm to slam into Newfoundland and stall over it, after steamrolling over Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia will likely experience heavy snow followed by rain, though the snow will be extremely wind-blown. Newfoundland will get a blizzard, but hey, they are used to it, I suppose. Here's the ICON. Look at that monster over Newfoundland. 970s. Crazy wind. Hopefully we get some Atlantic Canada members soon...
  5. A potent system moving along a Trinidad A configuration is going to be quite the storm. Could provide me with a decent snow event next week...
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