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Overall Setup Continued active southern stream branch, with conflicting teleconnections signals and active robust BSR signal. Northern stream still sending energy impulses eastward. As always timing between the northern and southern branches can greatly influence the outcome of this possibility but does not necessarily mean that only a phased solution is required as depending on the track of the southern stream energy, in case it´s more eastward, this time frame seems colder. BSR Depiction A low-pressure system developing over the northeastern GOMEX and southern SE CONUS, tracks ENE'ward towards the southeast coastal waters and the northeastward towards the Mid -Atlantic coastal waters. Once it´s offshore near the coast of Virginia, the storm tracks either to the ENE affecting only the Mid-Atlantic including near coastal areas of the northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England or actually continues on towards the Gulf of Maine and also impacts northern New England. Now, the BSR is showing what it seems to be two different potential storms in the time frame between Jan 13th and 15th. However, so far it does not seem that there are signals for two storms in this time frame on the models. It may take a bit more time for us to identify exactly which one would be the storm that comes to reality in this time frame for the region, the one that occurs on the 13th or the one on the 15th. Both take similar tracks from the southern southeast CONUS to Virginia and the off the coast. From there, the tracks diverge, as one tracks offshore to the ENE and the other tracks NE towards southern New England. Please see below the possibilities depicted by the BSR. 13th: 15th: 500mb Flow (Jan13th through 15th) The 500mb flow is pretty interesting and does indicate that a storm is possible, although not a too powerful one, especially because we do have conflicting teleconnections during this time frame. On the next page, more relevant and related data can be found, including the teleconnection readings for this time frame. Northern Hemisphere and North American views EPS 500mb height and MSLP: EPS North America flow 500mb height EPS North America Normalized MSLP Overall, not a classic flow, but also not a terrible one. There´s room for a decent storm, while also one cannot disregard the possibility of a farther offshore outcome, in which no one north of eastern Virginia would be impacted. Teleconnections EPS: AO is negative, around -1 while the EPO is in a weak positive state near neutral. This is not a terrible combo as it is, but it´s not ideal as well, given the positive EPO even though is almost in a neutral state. The NAO is transitioning from a near weak positive neutral state to a weak negative one, while the PNA looks to looks to be positive around 1. This combo, although not ideal because of the weak magnitude of the negative NAO flip, nevertheless still have the flipping NAO which is beneficial as well as the positive PNA. As we go on and take a look at the GEFS teleconnections forecast, we see a bit of a different look. GEFS This GEFS AO/EPO combo does look pretty decent, as we have a negative AO around -2 and a negative EPO around -0.5. In case the EPO was in a strong negative state, this would basically be a good one. As we take a look at the NAO/PNA combo, we can argue that this one is pretty decent. The NAO is negative around -0.5 and the PNA is positive around 0.7. The magnitude of the readings is not ideal as both are in weak states, but the signs of polarities for each are good. In short, this one looks to have a good potential to bring wintry precipitation for the thread´s region, also keeping in mind that this does not mean that the whole region will see wintry precipitation. The exact track and storm strength will be determined later. The other aspect to keep in mind is that there´s a chance that whatever storm comes, it could take a further offshore track and not affect areas north of Virginia. Let´s see how it goes folks. Hopefully, it´s time to be rewarded for the snowless December. Have fun!