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About Me



Perfect Day

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  1. Good morning everyone, Ooh, my first time opening a thread on the new forum! Let us begin: The long range GFS and FV-3 GFS have both been repeatedly advertising a storm in the early days of December. As always at this range, the important thing is a storm signal, rather than any specifics at a particular level. The signal is certainly there: here are the 06z runs of the GFS and FV-3 GFS, respectively. This potential also has support from certain Organic Methods, specifically, the Bearing Sea Rule, which displays two separate potentials; one around December 2nd, and a few days later on December 5th. Moving on to teleconnections; GFS ensembles seem to suggest a favorable -NAO, -AO, and neutral to +PNA pattern in the long range. It should be noted that these ensembles change quite often at this distance. Finally, here is the CPC single month forecast for December, released yesterday. It seems to suggest a favorable trough location over the month as a whole; we may, perhaps, see this pattern begin to establish itself during the first few days of the month. Again, this is very long range, nothing more than a signal to watch at this point. Still, we have early support from operational models, OFM, and teleconnections. What we must now watch over the next few days is if the signal stays consistent, or if it vanishes. Time will tell, as it always does. TDAT
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