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Phased Vort posted a topic in North East | Mid AtlanticMarch 26-28, 2019 | Spring Storm | Snowfall Possible? Well, I thought the March 18th thread was going to be the last thread to discuss a snow potential that I opened. But given what I have been observing for the last 3 days using many different operational and ensemble guidance and continued decent teleconnection signals, I was dragged back to open yet another thread to discuss the possibility of snowfall for the region. General Set up and Idea Low pressure developing in and around the Tennessee Valley, may be infused by incoming strong arctic air courtesy of a north to south dropping cold front from the SE Canada (Quebec area) as high pressure builds in over the region behind the cold front. Such setup may result in a blocking mechanism, which may force the low-pressure system to track in a more slow-paced fashion to the south and around of the frontal boundary where the baroclinic zone sets up. There also the possibility that given the setup, that the storm may get cut off somewhere over the Mid-Atlantic or to the south of Long Island over the Atlantic Ocean. Descriptive Set up Illustration Guidance Output March 17th 12Z EPS Control OUTCOME In short, if the building high pressure is very strong heavy with cold arctic air, the magnitude of the cold air would push and block the main part of the storminess, namely the storm center (the low-pressure system itself) to the southeast, which would prevent the northern Mid-Atlantic and perhaps southern New England from being directly affected by the low pressure system as an ENE sliding coastal storm or in a more amplified case a Nor´easter. In this case, the region aforementioned would most likely be affected by moisture being lifted by the cold front as it pushes southeastward and by warm air advection out ahead of the low-pressure system due to southwesterly flow. However, if the building high pressure is not as strong and heavy, and therefore the cold air magnitude is not as intense, then the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England could very well be affected by ENE an ENE sliding coastal storm or in a more amplified case a Nor´easter. In both cases though, unless the modeled arctic cold front with its attending cold air is totally misinterpreted and its forecast is very wrong, there is a pretty good possibility that this time frame features snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic and/or southern New England just as spring is saying hello.
Phased Vort posted a topic in North East | Mid AtlanticHello folks! One more thread, but a with a short opener and probably the last one related to a winter potential concerning the 2018/19 winter season. Possibility Description This one is brought to you in order to allow for the discussion of a possible clipper system that may interact with a piece of southern branch energy that could track far enough NE´ward as it reaches the southeast CONUS or just offshore to be able to interact with the clipper, hence the Clipper Miller Tale title. If there´s no interaction, then we are left with a clipper probably impacting the region before a possible bigger storm affects the area on the March 22-23rd time frame. The time frame for this is now in the 10-day out range, and guidance like the GFS and FV3 has been showing this possible storm potential on different runs, although with no solid continuity so far. Additionally, recently as we got into the 10-day out time frame, the CMC hints at something in the time frame talked about and the operational ECMWF shows a clipper trying to interact with weak southern stream energy as moisture affects the region. Moreover, EPS control has shown on some different runs this possibility as well. Aspects to look for that may hamper a good storm outcome: Clipper and southern branch energy interaction or lack thereof; Messy interaction for the lower latitudes south of eastern southern New England; Clipper only storm; Lack of deeper cold air layer on the surface level, Off timing. Track Scenarios Under construction - 2 more scenarios and model images will be added still.
Phased Vort posted a topic in North East | Mid AtlanticHello everyone! As we continue our journey through the 2018-19 winter season and endure disappointment when it comes to the snow aspect of winter, our next storm chance comes around the President´s Day holiday time frame, which I then took the opportunity to dub this one the Commander-in-Chief winter storm. Let´s just hope it does come with all the splendor that the title brings with it. This storm could be an overrunning type of storm that comes from the central Rockies region and tracks eastward across the country. As with any storms 10 days out, a few outcomes are on the table. Let´s talk about them. A flatter storm crossing the Southern Plains which may amplify enough after crossing the Appalachian mountains as it emerges over the Atlantic Ocean somewhere near or south of Long Island; A more amplified storm that could track ENE/NE and pass by south of the Great lakes and when possibly cut tracking over Michigan or western NY, Option 1 but with a coastal redevelopment over the offshore waters near VA, which would then track to the ENE or NE. A primary low track the could take it over Minnesota and then cyclogenesis occurs far south over South or North Carolina or just offshore near either one of those two states. Given the conflicting teleconnections signals, it´s perfectly fine to expect the possibility of different outcomes at the 10 days out range. Please take a look at the teleconnections outputs from the ESRL/PSD map room and the EPS ones: Ensemble guidance support has been so far not too clear, which is not alarming. Some EPS control runs have hinted at this storm affecting the region. However, what is interesting is that the GFS, FV3, and ECMWF have been showing a storm during this time impacting the region. The GFS and its successor FV3 are more on then overrunning bandwagon while the ECMWF is playing with the idea of a coastal redevelopment near the VA offshore waters. The images will not be posted because they are readily available on well-known sites sources. Track Scenario Maps Perhaps a more simplistic thread opener, but still respecting the need to content addition and textual descriptions, may work to make this storm potential a candidate to take over the Commander-in-Chief title.