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Solstice

May 2019 | Daily OBS and Forecasts

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Quite the super soaker coming up. 

 

NAM 3k. I would disregard the hyper-localization at this point - this model does not get specifics down well, especially at this range. I would say 1"+ is fairly likely in most areas.

Spoiler

nam3km_apcpn_neus_20.thumb.png.360bcaee72d28f8767d1de2a097ffe9e.png

 

HRDPS. I like the "flatness" of the precipitation this model produces, always seems to paint a good picture, at least in my mind. Here's a GIF of its simulated radar.

Spoiler

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh10-48.thumb.gif.8ef6480224935960d75f5f33db2812fb.gif

 

Couple of tidbits out of OKX.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019
Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will continue to push northward towards the area
Friday morning as a surface low over the Ohio Valley tracks
northeast. The warm front is forecast to move north across the
area by Friday afternoon with the cold front associated with the
low pressure expected to move across the area from west to east
by Friday night. As the warm front gets closer to the area,
rain will become more widespread, then rain may become more
intermittent during the afternoon then increase in coverage
again as the cold front moves across the area through Friday
night. Will continue the mention of thunder for later in the day
on Friday and into Friday evening as a few hundred joules per
kilogram of Mucape can be expected per latest weather models.

Total rainfall expected Friday into Friday night is forecast to
be between a half inch to one inch. Higher amounts are possible
with any thunderstorm development.

Temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with
night time temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50.

 

Considering the high amount of rain the region has received recently, and the forecasted rainfall amounts, I would say the flooding threat is quite likely. Especially in areas where thunderstorms decide to deluge on.

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IMBY stuff saved in order to keep the opener "neutral."

These fellas won't be happy!

626529678_Screenshot2019-04-25at5_34_36PM.png.b8d923649096d994dfd65c83b7dead0c.png

 

Also, there is a lot of "stream expansion" with the areas next to streams being very muddy. Perhaps a consequence of the extreme amounts of precipitation we received in the past couple months?

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Just what we need, another good soaking. :classic_angry: Along with the good soaking this may bring, some areas may see some flakes Saturday after the cold front moves through. Along with gusting winds bwt. 25-30 MPH, Saturday does not sound like a good outdoor day. Tidbit from Albany AFD in quotes below.

Source: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ALY&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

 

From Albany's latest AFD.

Quote

Much colder air will move into the area behind the front later
Friday night and Saturday morning. Showers will linger in most
areas as the mid level system closes off across southern New
England Saturday morning. The atmosphere will probably become cold
enough for rain showers to mix with or change to snow showers
over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains by Saturday morning
with some light accumulations possible. A few flakes could even
be see in the mid to upper Hudson Valley Saturday morning before
showers end in the afternoon. Temperatures Saturday afternoon
will be hard pressed to get out of the 40s in many areas, with
possibly some lower 50s in the Hudson Valley. These temperatures
will combine with westerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph to make
for a very chilly spring day.

 

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Saturday night, a potent and compact mid-level short wave will zip through the Great Lakes region. This wave is modeled across the board to feature very strong system relative isentropic ascent, and an impressive trowal within a strengthening deformation zone. The current forecast surface low track, just south of the New York State border will allow for a developing northerly flow component which will be key in lowering surface dewpoints. Given forecast thermodynamics and timing, suspect that a move more toward rain/snow or even all snow at least for higher elevations might be needed. If this is in indeed the case, the general model liquid precipitation consensus of near a half inch or more is a bit concerning. Probably will need some finer adjustment as we move closer to the event with some mesoscale modeling. For now, will hedge the higher elevations a bit higher on snowfall amounts in the 2-3" range, but this might need to be nudged even further. Stay Tuned.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019042512_240_479_323.png

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I'm not a fan of the GFS-FV3 but it has been consistent the last several runs of snow across northern areas.  Here's a GIF of the last 10 model runs:

Quote

trend-gfs_fv3-2019042518-f096.snku_acc.us_ne.gif.8b9c89b03d80d86ae6a54f5b4626537e.gif

 

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The 18Z NAM is close to the GSF-FV3, just not as cold which brings down the snowfall totals to minimal amounts.

Quote

image.thumb.png.6205a578ddaf79d883333b7203f232e6.png

 

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So far no rain at all IMBY in sparrows point MD, but it's just to my west on radar

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went to the creek fishing yesterday evening, remarkably I got nothing lol, but water levels seemed pretty normal, you could def see how they were running higher then normal for the past year, all the mud spots turned to sand and gravel and the new mud spots were along the creek walking path. 

As far as flooding for this area, I think we'll be fine, actually the local creek I was at is the first to go over its banks and it would take an estimated 3-4"+ for that to occur, so this is the typical spring rain we normally see. 

The ticks on the other hand are horrible this year, I had a bunch on me yesterday, so make sure you check yourselves when out enjoying nature, theres a few diseases that they carry and all of them are pretty rough if you contract them. 

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2 hours ago, KENNYP2339 said:

went to the creek fishing yesterday evening, remarkably I got nothing lol, but water levels seemed pretty normal, you could def see how they were running higher then normal for the past year, all the mud spots turned to sand and gravel and the new mud spots were along the creek walking path. 

As far as flooding for this area, I think we'll be fine, actually the local creek I was at is the first to go over its banks and it would take an estimated 3-4"+ for that to occur, so this is the typical spring rain we normally see. 

The ticks on the other hand are horrible this year, I had a bunch on me yesterday, so make sure you check yourselves when out enjoying nature, theres a few diseases that they carry and all of them are pretty rough if you contract them. 

I'm usually up at Campgaw in Mahwah at least once a week to play disc golf.  It's never been too bad for ticks, however the other day, 2 people in my group each came out with attachments.  I can see ticks being a large problem this year.

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Looks like the next 10 days are mostly wet, and cold! Spring started off nice, what a bummer. How long can this wet pattern continue ?

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Activity beginning to ramp up. Text for this MESO in quote below.

image.png.4f2a0c161db578658c96757a7a2d32da.png

Quote

  Mesoscale Discussion 0451
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1042 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

   Areas affected...from northern North Carolina into southeast
   Pennsylvania and parts of New Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 261542Z - 261730Z

   CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Conditions will become increasingly favorable for severe
   storms today, with the greatest threat across eastern Virginia,
   southeast Pennsylvania, and parts of Maryland, New Jersey and
   Delaware. Damaging winds appear likely, with a tornado or two
   possible especially northern areas. The 1630Z outlook will reflect
   an upgrade to ENH for parts of the MCD area, and one or more watches
   are expected over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front is currently surging eastward across
   western PA and VA, with a warm front from far northern VA across MD
   and DE. Satellite imagery indicates clearing, and strong heating is
   occurring across the warm sector with CIN being rapidly eroded. In
   addition, widespread pressure falls exceeding 1.5 mb/hr were noted.

   Storms are already forming near the moist axis, from northeast NC
   across eastern VA and DE where dewpoints were solidly in the 60s F.
   These storms may produce locally damaging winds as they move quickly
   northeastward with favorable low-level lapse rates and deep-layer
   shear.

   Later today, storms along the cold front will increase in intensity
   as it encounters the heating air mass. A line of storms will result,
   possibly a broken line of cells or QLCS, with damaging winds likely.
   The strongest low-level shear will remain near the warm front, which
   will lift northward into PA and NJ. Here, forecast soundings show
   larger looping hodographs which may favor tornadoes, either with
   supercells just ahead of or embedded within the line. In addition,
   the relatively cool temperatures aloft near 700 mb will maximize
   low-level instability which will also aid rotation in storms.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/26/2019

 

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Forgot to post on Tuesday had a rogue t-storm roll through after 10pm with pea size hail.

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SPC updated risk area for this afternoon. Radar beginning to really light up.

image.thumb.png.34ab3a603af590c2d5a42750453471b7.png

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Thunder.

image.thumb.png.a0f48a146fb641019a0907e254661c36.png

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Wider view

image.thumb.png.c8507f56f35834cf7425009ccaf98956.png

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Consistent rain rates. I sense a big rain collection in the gauge tomorrow.

2919783_OKX_loop(28).gif.34d2ef241114b5632dc05ff5ebbf58f6.gif

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Posted (edited)

Tornado Watch


TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2019

TORNADO WATCH 105 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-011-027-029-035-037-041-043-045-055-061-067-071-075-081-
087-091-093-097-099-101-107-109-113-119-133-270100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0105.190426T1735Z-190427T0100Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BERKS               CENTRE
CHESTER              CLINTON             COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND           DAUPHIN             DELAWARE
FRANKLIN             HUNTINGDON          JUNIATA
LANCASTER            LEBANON             LYCOMING
MIFFLIN              MONTGOMERY          MONTOUR
NORTHUMBERLAND       PERRY               PHILADELPHIA
SCHUYLKILL           SNYDER              SULLIVAN
UNION                YORK
Edited by Phillyfan
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Active again.  Actually very active considering the marine environment this morning.

image.png.715a8e2e751f0c3b7db27429b425f6c9.png

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Pretty continuous thunder last 10 minutes

1959041584_radar145.gif.871216e6df97cfe234de9a4dff591ea5.gif

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Look out for hail

image.thumb.png.ac1e173efc2663ce1e7f4b758ba10354.png

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BIG chunk of thunder-producing system approaching. Lights flickering in school, this one has a punch.

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Posted (edited)

Tornado watch out for most of that area that was in the earlier Meso discussion.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

image.png.f42f516f567ddbf368ea1f49faa44cae.png

Text for Watch

Quote

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 105
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   135 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Delaware
     Central and Eastern Maryland
     Southern New Jersey
     Central and Southeast Pennsylvania
     Northeast Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify along a cold front this
   afternoon and spread across the watch area, posing a risk of
   damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Williamsport
   PA to 15 miles west southwest of Patuxent River MD. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

 

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?
Addl. info

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Special Weather Statement:

Quote

Special Weather Statement



Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
203 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2019

PAZ026-028-034>036-056-063-261900-
Perry PA-Bedford PA-Fulton PA-Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-Juniata PA-
Huntingdon PA-
203 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BEDFORD...HUNTINGDON...
FRANKLIN...JUNIATA...FULTON...PERRY...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL
300 PM EDT...

At 202 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Dudley to near Saluvia to Warfordsburg. Movement
was northeast at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chambersburg, Shippensburg, Breezewood, Guilford, St. Thomas,
Warfordsburg, Mount Union, Mercersburg, Scotland, Newville, Honey
Grove, McConnellsburg, Harrisonville, Fort Loudon, Spruce Hill, Big
Cove Tannery, Crystal Springs, Waterfall, Rockhill Furnace and Wells
Tannery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3997 7834 4017 7827 4039 7787 4038 7787
      4036 7782 4037 7776 4051 7761 4056 7746
      4036 7734 3999 7741 3972 7825 3972 7831
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 238DEG 43KT 4019 7817 3997 7814 3976 7818

$$

Lambert

We're not in too bad a shape now, but if the E4 cell there by the Mason-Dixon connects up with U2 it'll head right for me. It'll be around 3:30 - 3:45pm

WUNIDS_map.gif.fe4b820a11b858cfc99e7d69649a43b0.gif

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