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WeatherMonger

May 14 - 22 Tornado Outbreak Sequence

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Almost here lol, what a long wait.

 

Thanks for following along with the "Will Monger ever get a strong storm" prediction threads. 

 

Screenshot_20190521-204009_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.5655f4892946db20f04d491bc465e211.jpg

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5 minutes ago, junior said:

Don't you love tracking dying squalls :classic_laugh:

It's what I do best.

 

Getting some good thunder coming in now. Still have a TV signal though. One more whiskey and it's time for bed.

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1 minute ago, WeatherMonger said:

Almost here lol, what a long wait.

 

Thanks for following along with the "Will Monger ever get a strong storm" prediction threads. 

 

Screenshot_20190521-204009_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.5655f4892946db20f04d491bc465e211.jpg

Yeah but at least you'll get something.  Waited the entire day the other night with that one squall only for it to die out at the border.  Crazy how NW Ohio will see nothing from any of the setups this pattern has produced. 

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2 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Yeah but at least you'll get something.  Waited the entire day the other night with that one squall only for it to die out at the border.  Crazy how NW Ohio will see nothing from any of the setups this pattern has produced. 

I've been there myself, too many times and continuing. Believe me, I know the feeling.

 

Thunder is pretty much gone, just heavy rain which continues to be the norm this year. Hear some faint rumbles from the east.

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If Weird Al were in Springfield, IL this year, he would parody Megadeth's "Sweating Bullets" with "Pouring Buckets".

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10 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Uh Oh

 

20190521_204423.thumb.jpg.9e30d8c2d51ef5cb906a1b82bfd6f9b4.jpg

Nice job with the updates today monger! 

Only problem is you’re watching the wrong team...should be watchin that team from stl play

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2 minutes ago, CincySnow said:

Nice job with the updates today monger! 

Only problem is you’re watching the wrong team...should be watchin that team from stl play

Truthfully, I have never been able to watch baseball. Ever.

 

Being sports deprived in the Spring and Summer I have been trying to give it a go. My brother and 90% of friends are Cubs fans so decided to watch them rather than constantly hear something I didn't want to :classic_laugh:

 

It's still difficult to watch, but I'm trying lol

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Update

Neighbors tree is still standing, will have to wait for the next wind event to see its potential demise. Poor things is east leaning and won't take much. To the point it could just uproot rather than snap above the trunk. :Weather4:

 

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10 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Truthfully, I have never been able to watch baseball. Ever.

 

Being sports deprived in the Spring and Summer I have been trying to give it a go. My brother and 90% of friends are Cubs fans so decided to watch them rather than constantly hear something I didn't want to :classic_laugh:

 

It's still difficult to watch, but I'm trying lol

Tell em u found it was easier to watch the cardinals...that should keep the conversation (eerrr argument) going for a while 

 

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I'm just trying to figure out where/when the squall is going to die out. Probably right at the IN/OH border..

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0z 3K NAM still appears to have plenty of instability on Thursday. 0z NAM is a bit south of this.

sbcape.us_ov.png

ehi03.us_ov.png

scp.us_ov.png

refcmp.us_ov.png

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It seems like there should be a rule of thumb about busted severe weather forecasts. If a forecast busts (Monday), the following day will probably overachieve. I mean, we’re taught through all kinds of science courses that nature loves to balance things out/make the sum equal 0, so maybe I’m onto something! 

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2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

It seems like there should be a rule of thumb about busted forecasts. If a forecast busts (Monday), the following day will probably overachieve. I mean, we’re taught through all kinds of science courses that nature loves to balance things out/make the sum equal 0, so maybe I’m onto something! 

Could you make that apply to gambling as well? :classic_laugh:

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10 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

It seems like there should be a rule of thumb about busted severe weather forecasts. If a forecast busts (Monday), the following day will probably overachieve. I mean, we’re taught through all kinds of science courses that nature loves to balance things out/make the sum equal 0, so maybe I’m onto something! 

What are your thoughts on Thursday?

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8 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

What are your thoughts on Thursday?

Thursday will always come after Wednesday, but before Friday and the weekend.

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24 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Could you make that apply to gambling as well? :classic_laugh:

Well I think I'm around even on penny slots in my 4 year career so maybe you're just doing it wrong :classic_laugh: My student debt vs. my bank account, on the other hand...

15 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

What are your thoughts on Thursday?

Precip looks pretty spotty on the NAM products but the conditions look pretty favorable for that precip to be severe. Directional shear could be better but may be enough for supercells

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Storm is finally approaching my location and honestly it looks like some cells are still going pretty strong

EF40DE8F-5573-449D-98A0-2FE89FC07CA2.png

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3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Storm is finally approaching my location and honestly it looks like some cells are still going pretty strong

EF40DE8F-5573-449D-98A0-2FE89FC07CA2.png

Starting to see the outflow there on that image.

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Yeah it will probably actually help the current supercells temporarily spin up better and increase tornado potential but not for long, looks like it’s about to die

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