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StretchCT

FV3 now operational GFS

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Several sources have commented that the FV3 has now been rolled into the GFS as one package.  No ideas yet as to any improvement made to the FV3.

https://www.research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2465/New-engine-is-driving-NOAA’s-flagship-weather-forecast-model

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-us-global-weather-forecast-model

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1138828918797086720

"The retiring version of the model will no longer be used in operations but will continue to run in parallel through September 2019 to provide model users with data access and additional time to compare performance."

Also its been noted that since the hourly increments will be 3 beyond hr 240, the gfs will take 20 minutes longer to run.

https://twitter.com/mfdwx/status/1138835301533724672

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ECMWF upgraded as well. 

Edited by StretchCT
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Here's another official version, which also notes some of the differences and upgrades. Text in box. I've highlighted that they acknowledge the excessive snow bias and persistent cold bias, as well as that they are incorporating live buoy data (which we need more of).  

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf

 

Spoiler

Effective on or about Wednesday, June 12, 2019, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the Global Forecast Systems (GFS) from version 14 to 15.1.

NOAA/NWS selected the finite-volume cubed-sphere (FV3) dynamical core as the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). The FV3 was developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) under NOAA's Office of Atmospheric Research (OAR). The current operational GFS Version 14 has a spectral dynamical core. The GFS version 15.1 uses the FV3 dynamical core and improved physics parameterizations.

GFS Version 15.1 maintains a horizontal resolution of 13 km and has 64 levels in the vertical extending up to 0.2 hPa. It uses the same physics package as the current operational GFS except for: -

Replacement of Zhao-Carr microphysics with the more advanced GFDL microphysics

-Updated parameterization of ozone photochemistry with additional production and loss terms

-Newly introduced parameterization of middle atmospheric water vapor photochemistry

-Revised bare soil evaporation scheme

-Modified convective parameterization scheme to reduce excessive cloud top cooling.

EMC has conducted 3 years of retrospective experiments, including the real-time parallel, covering the past 3.5 years for a comprehensive evaluation of the Q2FY19 GFS implementation. GFS V15 shows equal or improved forecast skills in many areas, especially for 500-hPa height anomaly correlations, precipitation diurnal cycle and ETS score over the CONUS, surface 2m temperature, stratospheric ozone and water vapor, and hurricane intensity over all basins. Several individual case studies illustrate the model occasionally produces excessive snow in the medium range. EMC also noted a persistent cold bias that increases with forecast time. EMC will continue to explore ways to address these issues.

Evaluation of both the real-time and retrospective parallels can be found at: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/fv3gfs/

The site above includes relevant links to various evaluation and verification web sites. A real-time feed of the GFS V15 output is available on para NOMADS for both NCEP Web services and NOAAPORT output at: https://para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov And on the Model Analysis and Guidance Website here: https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/

A summary of major changes to the data assimilation and model output contents include:

- Changes to data assimilation - Product changes to file names, directory structure, and internal file parameters

- Product delivery timing changes differing more than 5 minutes

- Product volume changes

- Removal of NOAAPORT/SBN products

1) Changes to Data Assimilation

- Add Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) moisture channels

- Add Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) all-sky radiances

- Add Megha-Tropiques SAPHIR data

- Add Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) data from MetOp-B

- Upgrade the use of Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) radiances

- Add Meteosat-11 SEVIRI channels 5 and 6

- Add NPP OMPS profile and total column ozone

- Monitor NOAA-19 SBUV/2, Metop-C AMSUA and MHS, GOES-17 AMVs

- Add ability to read drifting and moored buoy data

- Update quality control for GOES atmospheric motion vector (AMV) winds

- Upgrade specific humidity perturbation and statistics physics tendency perturbation with new parameter settings in ensemble forecast; statistical kinetic energy backscattering perturbation is excluded

- Remove digital filter and storm relocation

- Increase horizontal resolution of the ensemble part of the hybrid data assimilation from 35 km to 25 km

- Update the Near Sea Surface Temperature scheme to apply Sea Surface Temperature climatology tendency to the foundation temperature and reduce background error correlation length from 450~800 km down to 100 km.

 

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Finally!

Thanks @StretchCT.

Now we start learning about the FV3 officially.

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