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Phased Vort

2019 | Hurricane Barry | 75 mph - 993mb | NW @ 6 mph | Waning

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NHC has actived invest 92L, which should be the second named storm of the season and hence give rise to Barry.

Quote

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2019, DB, O, 2019070612, 9999999999, , 005, , , 8, METWATCH, , AL922019

two_atl_5d0.png.416a35a50056c5230f2d8977896e0474.png

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to
move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days.  Some
gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near
the northern Gulf Coast.  Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.  For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center.  Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

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Weird having the X over land. 

image.png.9910768562f171c1788fdf27a94cccb9.png

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Legacy GFS v GFS (didn't know we were still running the old GFS)

gfs-legacy_z500_mslp_us_24.png.d4ce537880fcc3fa705d919fbcb8e56a.pnggfs_z500_mslp_us_21.png.c0de1f845b5fa46fee386632940aaa84.png

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4 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Legacy GFS v GFS (didn't know we were still running the old GFS)

gfs-legacy_z500_mslp_us_24.png.d4ce537880fcc3fa705d919fbcb8e56a.pnggfs_z500_mslp_us_21.png.c0de1f845b5fa46fee386632940aaa84.png

Amazing 5-6 days out the Euro and GFS are close with location near Texas. The 12Z CMC is like the legacy-GFS

image.png.ef737de861cb6023029620b453c10e94.png

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12Z EURO consistent with 00Z run bringing system in around the Texas/Louisiana border.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh48-192.gif.66c2e2179d9fbb5d0123e1c0222a43b9.gif

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MSLP (984) Peak winds (60kts) and max gusts (too unbelievable)

ecmwfued---ussc_marine-138-C-mslpthkpcpk6_2019070812_whitecounty.thumb.png.ca4cc30aa524ae2926574f482e390013.png

ecmwfued---ussc_marine-126-C-10mwindstreamh_2019070812_whitecounty.thumb.png.d6ea791d598a17f698170b5ad41c7d3d.png

ecmwfued---ussc_marine-144-C-10mgustmax_2019070812_whitecounty.thumb.png.2cf3d082ffc4f68d873b0fd5d1aeff32.png

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This would be one hell of a rapid cyclogenesis. Once the MCV moves over the Gulf, yeah, conditions will be very favorable for development... but 924mb? :classic_laugh:

One thing I want to add about this is that the MCV, the remnant circulation that will spin up this tropical cyclone, owes its origins from convection in the northern Plains.

 

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Michael Ventrice with an excellent Twitter thread that he definitely didn't write up in less than a minute

 

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ECMWF ensembles.  Such an interesting route.  Guess it's rotating around a high pressure cell.

esrl_eps_ecmb_hit_92L_2019_168.thumb.png.d83d7c814e2023095b41e1697f0f0cca.png

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24 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Michael Ventrice with an excellent Twitter thread that he definitely didn't write up in less than a minute

 

What I was talking about with the MCV

 

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SPC view shows our feature moving SW through Georgia on its way to the GOM. On this view looks like its heading more toward the western Florida Panhandle as its path to the GOM.

image.thumb.png.a0d6711f03fb75f31fda5c7da81c0c27.png

 

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Pardon my naivete, no expert here as you know, but isn't this development and path just a bit odd?

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1 minute ago, lynniethelurker said:

Pardon my naivete, no expert here as you know, but isn't this development and path just a bit odd?

It's rare, but it has happened before, seems to be once a decade where a storm comes off the U.S and forms in the Gulf. 

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2 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

It's rare, but it has happened before, seems to be once a decade where a storm comes off the U.S and forms in the Gulf. 

Thanks! I've followed tropical storms for decades, but it's only been since I discovered the AW forums, and now here, that I'm becoming more interested in how and why they develop and why they take the path they do.

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First recon may go in on Wednesday afternoon(7/10) as per the PLAN OF THE DAY. With the airbase for these planes being so close( Biloxi Mississippi) we may get a lot more flights if they are needed.

Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Quote

image.png.748ca569c47eadb176f6d3b623ddf7fd.png

 

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1 minute ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

First recon may go in on Wednesday afternoon(7/10) as per the PLAN OF THE DAY. With the airbase for these planes being so close( Biloxi Mississippi) we may get a lot more flights if they are needed.

Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

 

That's good. We should never underestimate the GOMEX/tropical cyclone combo.

And it's indeed a very interesting U shaped track so far possibly from a unique cyclone from a unique energy source.

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32 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

A quick look at some SST's in the gulf. OMG! :classic_ohmy: That is major bath water. Also nice to see a lot of these stations functioning this year. So many were out of business last year.

Source: https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof_tmap.html

image.png.ce719632cf7480052bc93a556d880411.png

The GOM is nice and warm, I can attest.  Hoping it moves on somewhere else...🤔

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A weak sheared storm that stays east would be preferable to many who live in Louisiana and Texas where a lot of flooding is or already has occurred the last couple of months. 

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58 minutes ago, lynniethelurker said:

Pardon my naivete, no expert here as you know, but isn't this development and path just a bit odd?

Weird

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ECMWF QPF

Screenshot_20190708-203055.thumb.jpg.2a74d2cf2de6597c90d4001ebce52115.jpg

UKie QPF

Screenshot_20190708-203135.thumb.jpg.3fde82406ac5b709de6472dcc2a80ff9.jpg

Let's hope it isn't a slow mover

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Can't resist a low Sun angle visible shot.

ezgif-1-0b2600b2b11d.thumb.gif.10ee282b3ea6f6832245ca8e3be54a44.gif

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So on tropical tidbits, which is the new GFS.  The Legacy?

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12 minutes ago, RU4LIFE said:

So on tropical tidbits, which is the new GFS.  The Legacy?

The legacy is the old version

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00z GFS took a big step toward Euro

fPfFI6R.png

 

12z GFS for that hour

dxb9Nse.png

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