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snowlover2

July 17-? Heat Wave/Excessive Heat

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It's looking like toward the end of next week another heat wave potentially worse than the most recent one will affect much of the east. Both GFS and Euro are suggesting DP's getting into the 80's across much of the OV.

EEFAE9A6-2CBC-4F47-AC56-4AD5AEDD1A85.jpeg.900f76ffae8120729158bfba819dadff.jpg

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5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

It's looking like toward the end of next week another heat wave potentially worse than the most recent one will affect much of the east. Both GFS and Euro are suggesting DP's getting into the 80's across much of the OV.

EEFAE9A6-2CBC-4F47-AC56-4AD5AEDD1A85.jpeg.900f76ffae8120729158bfba819dadff.jpg

Hi, do you mind if I post this in the Northeast heat wave thread?

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2 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

Hi, do you mind if I post this in the Northeast heat wave thread?

Nope, no can do. 

 

Unless you can remove IL from the outlook :classic_laugh:

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Nope, no can do. 

 

Unless you can remove IL from the outlook :classic_laugh:

DP's in the 80's? that's bad news. I'll see what I can do for you.:classic_laugh:

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?

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6 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

Hi, do you mind if I post this in the Northeast heat wave thread?

Go for it.

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It's already hot. :Status-weather-clear-icon:

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The Euro and GEFS has some minor differences when it comes to the core of the ridge in the long range, but nonetheless, well above average heights are forecast by both across the Great Lakes by the last full week of the month:

Euro...

614731136_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates5-dayAvg500ZAnom360.thumb.png.7df074dfec7f7d42f7589ee48fedf2c4.png

GEFS:

416365550_GEFSEnsemblesUnitedStates5-dayAvg500ZAnom384.thumb.png.73cfe860c9a7ede57ad318c5105366cc.png

The takeaway here is that the month of July is likely going to be remembered as a hot one for a lot of us!

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My question is, will Chicago finally see a 100 degree day? I been a long time since that happened. 

 

Also, anyone else upset to see how hot Alaska is?

Edited by chicago_WX

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15 minutes ago, chicago_WX said:

My question is, will Chicago finally see a 100 degree day? I been a long time since that happened. 

 

Also, anyone else upset to see how hot Alaska is?

The humidity is the only thing that would make me question the ability to reach 100°F.

Personally, I think the heat wave in Alaska is being overhyped in a big way. They've seen multiple heat waves over the course of history, with the all-time record of 100°F being set in 1915. This isn't the time or place for this debate, but I will say, no, it doesn't upset me because it's more natural than everyone would like to believe.

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2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

They expanded the extreme heat areas on todays outlook.

BE0332EE-5D5B-4F6A-82A2-A96A7740680A.thumb.png.a82fa4d9343b485b12b0fc7fa2b6cd9c.png

Yuck. At least the GEFS, which was extremely aggressive in suggesting a 7-10 day heat wave for some, has backed off a bit and now suggests the core of the ridge remains over the southwest, with perhaps more of a northwest flow developing in the 10-15 day range..

1246767763_GEFSEnsemblesUnitedStates5-dayAvg500ZAnom360.thumb.png.bfdfd991058b1cef83236ba62b76de5c.png

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Well, the models seem to be honing in on a period of extreme heat for the region next week. IMBY, here's what the GEFS is forecasting:

index.png.7634079d21b3c78e529e441f673b7a32.png

Normally, I would say it's off its rocker, but the ops Euro is showing intense heat at the end of the forecast cycle as well:

index_2.png.7a7b2646e373552e0e343e5855ba9b81.png

Yuck!

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I’ve been upset with this heat about a week now 😂😂. It’s been pretty miserable. You know it’s bad when the other day the meteorologist were it’s not as bad as it’s been out when it was still 90 but because the DP was at a measly 65 .

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The other night I had to put my wipers on driving because of the humidity.

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4 hours ago, Snow_____ said:

I’ve been upset with this heat about a week now 😂😂. It’s been pretty miserable. You know it’s bad when the other day the meteorologist were it’s not as bad as it’s been out when it was still 90 but because the DP was at a measly 65 .

Hopefully it's relatively short lived, but I too have been miserable with this heat. My electric bill has sucked too.

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Not sure if the GFS or Euro is better in the long range, but a bit of difference between them IMBY on the 20th and 21st at 18Z

 

 

Euro

Screenshot_20190712-171031_Chrome.thumb.jpg.6111f35724b67477151826d928d923cc.jpg

 

Screenshot_20190712-170941_Chrome.thumb.jpg.d581685300c71ac25e6a2addeda7f9d8.jpg

 

GfS

 

sfct.us_ov.thumb.png.65e2d296b6da720cc1bf84cdfd0343fe.png

 

858783557_sfct.us_ov(1).thumb.png.b68e61903cc880f7e5de6d36f1aa71ff.png

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There's been an interesting evolution on the GFS, and to a lesser degree the Euro, with the 12z runs overnight. The GFS now suggests that a piece of the western trough will break off and flatten out the ridge, potentially providing a break in the heat for a day or two:

output_s23w12.thumb.gif.0ebf68c4cfe9764a3b3053490637f0ea.gif

Will it stick? Who knows, but I think it bears watching.

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Not sure where this belongs, but impressive rain rates at the house currently: 

E83457DD-0E6A-407B-8F5F-060CB8C45C48.png

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The older I get the more I despise the heart of summer.

 

Quote

Hot and humid conditions are forecast to return through the latter half of the week. Heat indices of 100-115°F are likely starting Wednesday, with the hottest conditions expected Thursday and Friday.  If you are planning to be outdoors, limit strenuous activities and spend more time in the shade or air conditioned buildings.

FB_IMG_1563237057913.jpg.582418b0d8f840b64404e2a2ca81ad62.jpg

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...um...idee's 'Hint' of this on the Summer 2019 thread...

Quote

an idee 'hint' of what we may see much of this Summer...for now first 'clue' is "Johnny Cash"...:hmm::classic_wink:

Quote

...enjoy...first the tropical 'system' that is now evolving over the GOM...then continued energy into the Northern tier of the CONUS...and perhaps leading to...(  Idee nonsense: hint #2...the name of one on Johnny Cash's #1 hits?)

...will it possibly be a 'pattern' for Central US later this summer?

...and astutely answered by @lynniethelurker  :

Quote

Is Idee hinting at "Ring of Fire" perhaps? 

"Ring Of Fire"?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png.ae9eb72a2a4589871f56552853e7890f.png

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