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bobbo428

August 2019 | Daily OBS, Discussion and Forecasts

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11 hours ago, bradjl2009 said:

I agree with a lot of your sentiments. What drives me crazy are their 60-80% chances of throughout the summer that turnout to be partly sunny or only feature rain for a half hour at most. They need to find a better way because percentages that high lead many to believe the day will be a washout when it turns out not to be.

 

But anyway, today turned out to be our forth day in a row it was below normal (albeit barley lol). High got to 85 instead of the 87-88 predicted thanks to clouds moving in later in the afternoon. Low this morning also got down to 58, which was a couple degrees below our predicted of 61.

Forecasts aren't guarantees.  I get it.  Predicting the weather is, by default, a risky business.  

I just posted a longer post on this topic, in the "severe weather" thread.  

My issue isn't being wrong, per se.  It's scaring people before you are sure that they should be warned of impending doom.  If you are going to predict 2-3" of rain, damaging hail, very strong winds, etc., then you had better be VERY sure.  Otherwise, temper your language.  Voice concern, sure, but make it clear that things are still fluid and encourage people to check again as it gets closer.

That's wise.  That's mature.  And the flip side is more important: letting people know that there will be severe weather around, tomorrow, and they should check back to see if what was a Miss for them, is now a Hit.

This is the situation, today.  The band of damaging storms is now predicted to hit in areas that were too far south... yesterday.  Now?  They're in the direct hit prediction zone.

We'll see what happens.

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County airport recorded 0.08" in the bucket from Tuesdays morning rain. Additional showers/T-storms are forecast for later this afternoon.

image.png.5dec7e17c857b585ec6d48fe29153f92.png

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Buffalo

There is very high confidence that temperatures will average well above
normal during this period. This near assurance stems from strong
agreement between the GEFS ensembles and operational ECMWF that depict
the presence of a strong sub tropical ridge over the Desert Southwest
with relatively high heights found across the remainder of the conus.
H85 temperatures across the Lower Great Lakes are forecast to average
16 to 18c...which would easily support daytime highs in the low to mid
80s. Pending your guidance package or ensemble member of choice...
forecast H85 temps are as high as 20c. That would suggest that parts of
the region could experience readings in the lower 90s. Given the humid
conditions that will be in place...this warmer scenario would raise the
specter of heat advisories for the lake plains...so stay tuned.
Looking further ahead at the remainder of next week (and possibly
through the remainder of the month!)...temperatures are fully expected
to remain above normal. There is strong consensus between the medium
range ensembles that the sub tropical ridge will expand across the
majority of the country with H85 temps across our forecast area
averaging in the mid to upper teens. This would support a prolonged
stretch of days with temperatures of least the low to mid 80s while
overnight lows would largely be in the mid 60s.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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Another potential threat during this period will be strong to severe
thunderstorms. While the various medium range ensemble packages seem to
have a good handle on the large scale pattern during this period...the
same cannot be said about the more detailed low level features. For
example...there are fairly significant timing differences on when a
cold front will drop southeast across the region. The forecast passage
of this boundary ranges from Sunday night to Monday evening...with some
packages not even depicting any pre frontal activity. Climatology
states that summertime cold frontal passages in our region are almost
always preceded by pre frontal troughs...and these features very often
produce more significant convection than the cold fronts. Will include
the mention of gusty winds from convection produced from an expected
pre frontal trough on Sunday...but this could be delayed by as much as
24 hours.

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Yesterday we had forecast for severe storms in my area. Coming in from the west over the mountains, it dried out with downsloping just like snow would and we had no storms and barely any rain. I would like to point this out as an example of how a forecast bust can go almost completely unnoticed right now, but if it was a snow forecast in the winter some people would have lost their damn minds. It does happen year round, just sometimes no one cares.  

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Rainy and windy with a temperature of 54F. Winter time over here.

One of those days to stay indoors reading, watching Netflix, etc...

And of course, WXDiscoing.  Or is it WXDiscoteering ? :352nmsp:

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Had some showers that moved through my area between 12:45-2:00pm it dropped 0.06" of rain

image.png.74cf534793e3662b2ff3eafb0595fdf2.png

A far cry from what is really needed here as it is still on the dry side. Last Thursday's Drought Monitor finally put a yellow blob at my doorsteps. Actually I think they could have extended it more southwest into my county(Dutchess, NY). We'll see what tomorrows update shows.

image.png.f28ce7d72188692453389dab022db1aa.png

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21 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

Did everything just amalgamate into one thread? 

I'm not sure what is going on but it does looks like it. I think PlanetMaster said things would be separated again after some updates were made. Please correct me if I'm wrong @PlanetMaster. Thanks.

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29 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

Did everything just amalgamate into one thread? 

 

No @NWOhioChaser posted in the wrong thread, will move the posts. Read the updates for more info daily

https://wxdisco.com/topic/1070-wx-disco-2020/?do=findComment&comment=81224

 

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Lotta rain on the southern half of LBI.  Looking for the amounts that caused scenes like this.  We tried to get into CHEGG but the water was knee high in front and to my doors on the jeep.  

613900B6-AE49-4145-8BA3-3DDFF30B1BD0.jpeg

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Yup. 2” in a few hours will do that

65EF9E4E-1662-4D0F-B848-443970A9A757.thumb.jpeg.c3eaee69278bdad5007b6127101398d3.jpeg

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So what's the magnitude of the heat looking like next week?  I see accuweather forecasting a few 90s already for Sunday and Monday.  Models, looking like multiple days or 90s possible.

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1 hour ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

I'm not sure what is going on but it does looks like it. I think PlanetMaster said things would be separated again after some updates were made. Please correct me if I'm wrong @PlanetMaster. Thanks.

 

Again understand the confusion but you have to bear with me, if we are going to get the new site up and running I have to start making global changes that may seem odd but will come together on the new site. No threads have been removed and the OVR region is in the eastern US so their threads are in here with Northeast. Its temporary, just be more vigilant to what thread you are posting in. I added those hideous red tags to daily threads to distinguish for now. This can be done by topic starters for other threads as a temporary identifier.

I updated some of the top threads and changed the look of the prefix for easier identification of region, just a temp workaround for the old themes.

https://wxdisco.com/topic/1070-wx-disco-2020/?do=findComment&comment=81300

 

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Was overcast in Bergen County most of the day, bright blue skies now.  Not a drop of rain.

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The summer of non-descript weather continues up here. Low of 59.2°, high of 80.6°, no rain.  It's been a nice summer, virtually no thunderstorms, and dry enough to get rid of the mosquitos.  Not much to complain about. :classic_smile:

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13 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Whoops my bad!

how dare you!!!! you made me hit another August thread and see pics of baseball hail and tornadoes.. the shame of seeing real weather is just embarrassing, do let it happen again. 

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Nice and dry out, lots of outdoor work progress was made.

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7 hours ago, Solstice said:

Nice and dry out, lots of outdoor work progress was made.

Seriously?

Here, not 120 miles away, it's so humid that you have to use your windshield wipers to push the condensation from the glass.  It's 70 degrees and foggy, that's how much water is in the air, here.  Nothing is dry.

Wow... I'm jealous.

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41 minutes ago, RobBucksPA said:

Seriously?

Here, not 120 miles away, it's so humid that you have to use your windshield wipers to push the condensation from the glass.  It's 70 degrees and foggy, that's how much water is in the air, here.  Nothing is dry.

Wow... I'm jealous.

Same here.  Was even worst teh higher in elevation you got. My dispatch center was in the fog driving up to it.

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Can I ask what happened to the Mid-Atlantic forum? A couple of days ago I suddenly got an error msg, now there is just an East forum? If that's the case, where was the heads up?

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1 hour ago, AtlasNJ said:

Can I ask what happened to the Mid-Atlantic forum? A couple of days ago I suddenly got an error msg, now there is just an East forum? If that's the case, where was the heads up?

Go to main page and go down to staff announcements. There’s a thread with info.

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