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PlanetMaster

August 2019 | Daily OBS, Discussion and Forecasts

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On 8/10/2019 at 6:34 PM, SoDakFarmer said:

From that storm just before your screenshot.

That blue patch of clouds just to the left of the funnel, is that the hail core? 

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Apologies the confusion but you have to bear with me, if we are going to get the new site up and running I have to start making global changes that may seem odd but will come together on the new site. No threads have been removed and the OVR region is in the eastern US so their threads are in here with Northeast. Its temporary, just be more vigilant to what thread you are posting in. I added those hideous red tags to daily threads to distinguish for now. This can be done by topic starters for other threads as a temporary identifier.

I updated some of the top threads and changed the look of the prefix for easier identification of region, just a temp workaround for the old themes.

https://wxdisco.com/topic/1070-wx-disco-2020/?do=findComment&comment=81300

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i will say it's been nice not having to mow for a month now lol. 

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Had some discrete cells come through this afternoon/evening. One up by Monroe county and one literally on my doorstep a couole of hours ago. Sheer must've been just right for some rotation aloft.  Downpoured for about 25 mins and some gusty winds about 35-40mph. Saw some turning in the sky but it became rain-wrapped pretty quickly. 

Screenshot_20190815-183545_RadarScope.jpg

Screenshot_20190815-183844_RadarScope.jpg

20190815_182916.jpg

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It's been dry in parts of the Midwest / Corn Belt area for the last 45 days or so, with an official drought declared in this weeks' update from the Drought Monitor for some localized areas:

1149481020_NationalDroughtMonitor.thumb.png.92f523de31e6222a9ffb4d79341eeae8.png

Between a significant rainfall deficit and above-average temps, it's no wonder there's a quickly growing issue here:

30dPNormMRCC.png.24980e923711dd2c9e7be4c3526c4320.png30dTDeptMRCC.png.bbf3ac3a3829ef1ce56da8442f2136c4.png

Hopefully the Euro is correct in its suggestion of above-average rainfall in and/or near the area of developing drought conditions:

170827939_14-kmEPSGlobalundefinedundefined240.thumb.png.e3df45591bc293bca80ba1616d8527d9.png

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Boring August Weather here in the East.  Muggy.  Pop up T-Storms.  Not too hot, yet, but that's coming - August is hardly the end of summer.  I'm with @lynniethelurker, however, in that it always *feels* like the end of summer.  I know some college students who are already back, and a lot of them are starting next week.

So far we have clearly been in a better pattern than last year.  The deluges of the first half of the year have given way to seasonal rains, and the water table has fallen a bit.  Still plenty of water out there, and the humidity is keeping drying to a minimum, but at least things aren't getting worse.  Last year, almost to Thanksgiving, was Waterworld.  Hot, wet, and flooding.

OTOH, we haven't really had any kind of nice-stretch for a couple of weeks now.  Vacationers have had to settle for "not rain," which is not the same as a "sunny, nice day."  Not many of those this month so far.  A couple of weeks ago we got something like 3 of them in a row, and that was magnificent, but they are now the exception and not the rule.  Current fantasy-cast from AW has more of the same for at least a week: hot, muggy, and possible water every day.  No current call for a deluge, and no current call for any kind of nice stretch.  A week from today, if you care to invest your emotions in such things, the forecast is for a perfect day.

Nobody, not even the mets who publish it, is claiming that this is really what's going to happen... but it would be nice.  We'll see.

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Can't believe fall is quickly approaching. August sure has been muggy but not too rainy. Almost every night/morning had some degree of fog so far.

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13 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Nice bow echo moving through central IN. Going to have to watch that as it moves east.

That warned storm might pass just a couple miles north of me. Watching an outflow showing up pushing to the SE from it, and a cell that has appeared further south and west. Maybe I can get something to build and fill into that area and at least get some much needed rain around here. Really don't need any of the 70mph wind gusts that they broke in on the TV programming here to tell us about a few minutes ago. 

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Just got included in Severe thunderstorm warning for northern Morgan County In til 8:15. Radar indicated 60mph gusts and quarter sized hail. Breezy, dark, and cooler outside.

No close lightning yet, but plenty of rumblings to the north 

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Warning just expired, I had a little wind, and the lightning decreased as it got here. It has been pouring, just got soaked running out to the rain gauge 1.45 of an inch so far and it appears on radar that it might continue to rain pretty steady for a bit longer. Perfect outcome! I had watched any significant rain pass to the north or to the south for a week or more. It's felt like a drought around here. Haven't had to mow for 3 weeks. Guess that mowing break is over. Hope some of this stays together and makes it over to the Ohio folks. 

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man wish we got some of those storms yall got in Indy y'day. jealous 

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16 hours ago, StormFanaticInd said:

Really good storm today in Indy. Could be more this Tuesday. According to the spc "destructive winds are possible" 

day2otlk_1730.gif.3e3d26f76a4209aa13478b3750c78b6f.gif

Quote

   ...Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys...
   A considerable signal remains evident within the latest model output
   suggesting the potential for the evolution of a large, organized
   convective system during this period.  It appears that forcing for
   ascent associated with a low amplitude impulse migrating around the
   northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, near/south of the
   stronger westerlies, will provide support for the initiation of this
   activity, perhaps as early as late tonight across southern Iowa.

   Aided by inflow of moderate to large CAPE, particularly as the
   boundary layer begins to warm with insolation, there appears
   potential for considerable intensification Tuesday morning into
   afternoon, across southeast Iowa and adjacent northwestern Missouri
   through central Illinois.  Aided by deep-layer shear associated with
   a 30-50 kt mid-level jet streak, and steep mid-level lapse rates,
   the environment may become supportive of large to very large hail
   and damaging surface gusts, associated with both downbursts and a
   strengthening convectively generated surface cold pool.

   Some uncertainty exists concerning the subsequent track of the
   convective system, and highest severe probabilities, but this seems
   most likely to become focused near the northeastern periphery of
   mid-level ridging, centered (around 700 mb) across southern
   Missouri.  Based on this, activity may gradually turn
   south-southeastward into/through the lower Ohio Valley by Tuesday
   evening, although eastward development toward portions of the Upper
   Ohio Valley may not be out of the question.

 

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2 hours ago, weather_boy2010 said:

day2otlk_1730.gif.3e3d26f76a4209aa13478b3750c78b6f.gif

 

yeah the wind threat with this is going to be pretty significant. I know tornadoes won't be a huge threat but im guessing their could be a decent chance of them on the leading edge of the MCS

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The central subforum should just be called Midwest and include the Ohio/OH valley people, Plains, and Midwest. I hate to whine but I hate the separation.  

Edited by Medina
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2 hours ago, Medina said:

The central subforum should just be called Midwest and include the Ohio/OH valley people, Plains, and Midwest. I hate to whine but I hate the separation.  

LOL i agree. i was so confused when the change happened 

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