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snowlover2

August 11-13 Severe Weather

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Next threat of severe weather starts tomorrow with an enhanced area for parts of the central plains. Day 3 outlook has a slight risk area for parts of the OV. There is also mention of severe for the southern OV for day 4 on the 4-8 day outlook.

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ILN also mentions the threat.

Quote

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After a dry start Monday morning under departing high pressure, a
chance of thunderstorms will enter the forecast Monday afternoon
ahead of a compact but potent low pressure barreling across the
Great Lakes on a westerly flow aloft. Thunderstorm chances increase
Monday night and Tuesday along a cold front trailing the low on its
way to New England. Moderate to high instability and vigorous wind
fields will enhance storm strength and organization, leading to a
good chance for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds the primary
threat.

 

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NWS Goodland, emphasis mine:

 

Quote

Sun-Sun night: SW flow aloft will strengthen over the Tri-State
area as an upper level low moving ashore the central Pacific coast
(today) lifts northeast through the Intermountain West (tonight)
into the Northern Rockies (Sun-Sun night). Increasingly energetic
flow aloft over the Rockies will promote the development of a more
pronounced lee cyclone in E-SE Colorado during the afternoon --
resulting in stronger forcing, stronger deep-layer shear, and an
overall greater potential for severe weather than in previous
days. Ongoing convection this evening into tonight may
significantly alter low-level height/wind fields and thermodynamic
profiles over the Tri-State area Sunday morning -- lending
considerable uncertainty to convective evolution, mode, and
severe weather hazards late Sun afternoon and evening.

 

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Posted (edited)

NW Kansas storms were impressive...near constant lightning, winds I'd estimate at up to 60mph, and torrential rain. Storms out here behave differently than in NY, that's for sure.

Edited by TheDayAfterTomorrow

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My laptop is in for repair so I’ll only have my phone for a couple weeks but this looks like a very interesting event. Those in Illinois and Indiana need to stay aware.

DD40B918-548A-46D9-8745-40F35E2EA2F8.png

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With these parameters I wouldn’t be surprised to see a small 10% hatched tornado area for the initial supercells they described if destabilization is sufficient. Pretty rare case of the wind fields appearing sufficient for a significant event in the lower Midwest in August

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Kansas Update:

 

There will certainly be enough CAPE over the western portion of the state this evening, short range mesoscale models appear to suggest 2,500-3,000+ J/KG of SBCAPE. Supercell Composite of 5-10, far lower SIGTOR numbers. Overall, I agree with the NWS that straight-line winds appear to be the main threat, along with flash flooding. Some areas saw 2-4"+ of rain last night, and had the same a few days earlier. NWS Goodland has already extended their Flash Flood Watch through tonight in preparation of further issues.


Stay safe!

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Ah, welcome to Kansas:

 

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 572
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   245 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Far eastern Colorado
     Northwest Kansas
     Southwest Nebraska

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
     1000 PM MDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Multiple discrete supercells will develop into far eastern
   Colorado with all severe hazards possible. These storms will likely
   consolidate and evolve into a bowing MCS that accelerates east along
   the Kansas-Nebraska border. This will yield an increasing risk for
   significant severe wind gusts later this evening.

 

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Cell near Otis, CO is tornado warned with a hook echo:

 

Quote

..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...

At 348 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Otis, or 11 miles west of Yuma, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

 

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2 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Oh mannn look at that thing

2AC0DAB3-E7CD-4406-A6F0-E98C8BD9E5E4.jpeg

1357646F-0942-4E0D-B44E-8D4AF7BA2A72.png

Great minds think alike.

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27 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Oh mannn look at that thing

2AC0DAB3-E7CD-4406-A6F0-E98C8BD9E5E4.jpeg

1357646F-0942-4E0D-B44E-8D4AF7BA2A72.png

Thanks for posting that! Wow.

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That was the cell from Otis I posted about earlier this afternoon, very long track mesocyclone associated with the cell. Wouldn't be surprised if it produced two or even three significant tornadoes over the last few hours. 

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Holy crapx something just got struck by lightning within a block or 2. Bright ass flash and ass wiping needed boom. Wow, poor dog is scared to dearh right now

 

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Yup I’ve been watching that... didn’t think it was gonna do anything for a bit because the outflow was cutting off the inflow but that seems to have fixed itself.

6C9900D1-2948-4221-B3B4-679F9AFFD514.png

94B38378-4628-4AE5-9D04-000603E22769.png

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That was an interesting cycle

C1C5D1F0-51FB-4FA5-894E-6A7FA62835C1.png

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Environment just ahead of some cells in SE IA tomorrow. Hard to believe this is a sounding in August, not June

 

10B81358-2DE9-4F18-8720-AE74B671DCCB.png

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Got a few bows developing in the storm cluster in NW Kansas...extremely powerful velocity returns WNW of Sharon Springs. NWS Goodland, emphasis mine: 

 
Quote

 


The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Cheyenne County in east central Colorado...
  Eastern Kit Carson County in east central Colorado...
  Wallace County in west central Kansas...
  Western Thomas County in northwestern Kansas...
  Western Logan County in west central Kansas...
  Sherman County in northwestern Kansas...

* Until 815 PM MDT/915 PM CDT/.

* At 732 PM MDT/832 PM CDT/, severe thunderstorms were located along
  a line extending from 13 miles north of Goodland to 12 miles north
  of Towner, moving east at 70 mph.

  These are very dangerous storms.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
           considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
           Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.


 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Environment just ahead of some cells in SE IA tomorrow. Hard to believe this is a sounding in August, not June

 

10B81358-2DE9-4F18-8720-AE74B671DCCB.png

Do you think they'll pull the trigger on a Moderate Risk?

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