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Posted (edited)

SPC-A marginal risk encompasses much of the Mid Atlantic, with a slight risk south of the Mid Atlantic.

WPC-The WPC has also posted a large area under a slight chance of excessive rain with the storms from Delaware to Connecticut.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

F8D86217-55B6-4ED5-B5EA-5BCF0CF19582.gif

Edited by WeatherExpertMatt
updated forecast
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HWO from NWS/Albany.

Quote

Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Ulster-
Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
402 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut and
Ulster and Dutchess Counties in east central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday along with potential for
locally heavy rainfall Tuesday. Urban and poor drainage flooding
along with isolated flash flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

 

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27 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

Mason Dixon runner? 

You rang? I done was trimmin' the hedges

 

redneck.gif

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

You rang? I done was trimmin' the hedges

 

redneck.gif

 

03D6F5BA-DB5A-40DA-9609-B7D3DBF327BF.jpeg

Edited by KENNYP2339
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helicity : vertical twist of the actual thunderstorm cell due to shear, think like a cork screw. 

 

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2 hours ago, MDBlueRidge said:

You rang? I done was trimmin' the hedges

 

redneck.gif

Missed a spot...

giphy.gif.77bad8bbe7c7a2b6ebbaf791f2b0d3c7.gif

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The 12Z 3km NAM showed a lot of precip through midday in PA tomorrow and kept the severe weather at bay until after 6PM.  If the morning and early afternoon can clear out more a more widespread severe event would appear likely for more of the southern half of PA. 

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Crap, I'm gonna get rained out again tomorrow.  At this rate the season will go till Thanksgiving 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

Crap, I'm gonna get rained out again tomorrow.  At this rate the season will go till Thanksgiving 

 

 

Frisbee golf is tough 

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The 18Z NAM 3km looks nasty for Southern NJ up through Eastern LI into Southern New England.

image.png.12bf6c6671a7fd25b2dd5e9e0d122e2a.png

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1 hour ago, KENNYP2339 said:

Frisbee golf is tough 

Golf is hard enough for me...  I'll just stick with hockey.

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Late night work, first drops of the day @ 4:30 am.

lightrain.PNG

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Seems that the threat shifted south. 

 

18CCD48E-C19F-4896-85F2-C30B13408FC6.png

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Raining coming down right now thunderstorms to the west.they are saying they could be severe we shall see.

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Well then severe threat has shifted south and the flash flood watch has been cancelled. Not really seeing anything on the nam for my area today. Figures need the rain now and it doesn't seem like it'll happen.

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Rain doesn’t look to bad despite being in a flash flood watch in SNJ.  

ECF8A749-ECAB-4501-B57D-B6EC3AD63EB1.thumb.png.c161922533ed15dd081d34cf3c0c9526.png

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HAL changed his mind?  

EPA isn't now facing 2" of rain?  We're only facing 0.3"?  "Heavier in storms?"

Fascinating.  I mean, the storm was only 24 hours into the future when HAL told me "all is lost.  Prepare to drown."  Damaging hail was mentioned.  Destructive winds.  That's just 24 hours before the predicted storm.

Are you SURE that using HAL is the best approach?  Without getting too personal allow me to share: Maths are a big part of how I pay my bills.  Like Jethro Bodine, I learned to cipher all they way through the sixth grade, and maybe a bit beyond that.  I'm pretty comfortable with math... and its limitations.

Now the fun thing will be if I get clobbered after all.  Now that I'm being told "it's going to mostly miss you, Rob," and it's only something like 4 hours from Commence Firing, wouldn't it be something if I get 2.5" of rain in under an hour, badger-sized hail, and hurricane winds?

What should I expect?  Should I head home early to fill the tub with water?  Should I get home to make sure that the dogs don't go insane in a catastrophe-storm?  Or am I cool here, knowing that it's "just a vanilla-sized t-storm?"

Which one do I believe - yesterday's forecast, or the current nearly-now-cast?

The flip side, of course, is that some people yesterday were told "it will miss you to the north," but now it's trending further south. If they haven't re-checked the forecast, they could get thumped... unprepared.

These forecasts matter.  People plan important things around them.  When we aren't scaring these people, we're under-warning them.  It's madness.  

Curb the catastrophization until you are SURE.  Temper the language.  "Something's coming, but we're not sure where yet" might gall your pride, but for crying out loud.  My wife came home yesterday talking about how many people were talking about Doomsday.  Now, presuming that the forecast is now accurate, Peter will have once again cried wolf - for them.

I am coining a new term for Peter and the Wolf Disease: "Catastrophe Prediction Fatigue."

Who knows... maybe I'll be thumped.  Maybe the current "not too bad" cast will revert back to "Take Cover!" in the event.

I'll let you know, presuming I survive.  ;)

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I dont see how anything severe will develop or happen near me in NENJ. Its 79 degrees out and has a chilly feel to it and has been overcast all day. 

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We have had a steady, albeit light rain, for the last 90 minutes. At least I won't need to water tomorrow......:classic_cool:

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A light rain falling imby with a temperature of 73. NWS/Albany is still saying thunderstorms likely this afternoon. Nothing severe, however the area can really use the rain.

Quote
Today
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 2pm and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 79. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

WUNIDS_map?num=6&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=240&brand=wui&delay=15&frame=0&scale=1&transx=0&transy=0&severe=0&smooth=0&centerx=400&centery=240&station=ENX&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&noclutter=0&showlabels=1&showstorms=5&rand=26095229

 

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