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3 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

A light rain falling imby with a temperature of 73. NWS/Albany is still saying thunderstorms likely this afternoon. Nothing severe, however the area can really use the rain.

WUNIDS_map?num=6&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=240&brand=wui&delay=15&frame=0&scale=1&transx=0&transy=0&severe=0&smooth=0&centerx=400&centery=240&station=ENX&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&noclutter=0&showlabels=1&showstorms=5&rand=26095229

 

Sounds like a win for you.  Needed rain is always a good thing.  Here we've gone from the deluge to normal over these last few weeks.  We went over a week without rain, which was fantastic, but now we're seeing a more typical pattern of a few days without rain, now being followed by days that start dry but develop t-storms by the afternoon.  Very normal.  The severe storms are now being predicted to miss us, but you never know...

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5 minutes ago, RobBucksPA said:

Sounds like a win for you.  Needed rain is always a good thing.  Here we've gone from the deluge to normal over these last few weeks.  We went over a week without rain, which was fantastic, but now we're seeing a more typical pattern of a few days without rain, now being followed by days that start dry but develop t-storms by the afternoon.  Very normal.  The severe storms are now being predicted to miss us, but you never know...

Its been about 1.5 to 2 years of heavy rain for you, but it does appear you are having some normal weather. Now you can walk in your backyard and not worry about losing a shoe or boot because it got stuck in the quicksand we all had in our backyards.  :smiley:

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Why does this matter?

Here.  Take a look at the Doylestown "Patch"  I get this via email.  The email subject was, and I'm cutting and pasting: ALERT: Timing, Latest Forecast For Severe Storms Tuesday In Eastern PA (Tue 11:00:34 AM)

Their objective is to get people to click.  They base this scare-headline on yesterday's predictions, even though they time stamp it at 1100 today.  The trouble is, that's not the 1100 forecast.  Philly is no longer predicted to see a truly severe storm.  Current rainfall prediction is, max, one inch.  Likely half that.  Yes, a t-storm, but not End of Times.  Not worthy of an email starting with the term "ALERT" in all-caps.

The "press" use whatever they can "to sell papers," or the modern equivalent of this.  They can defend using information that's less than 24 hours old, even if that information turns out to be wrong.

Hey, maybe Philly will get thumped.  You never know. 

Will the readers near D-Town even bother to read past the Subject line and thus presume that they, too, are facing an 'ALERT' worthy event?  Some will.  The thing is, D-Town is now predicted to see "Showers" today, and "Showers Likely then chance of thunderstorms" for tonight.  Not an "ALERT" worthy event, by any means.

The Patch won't update their headline or email alert, I'm thinking.  Neither will other outlets.  People will act on this information, accurate or not.

 

image.png

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Wow that air is thick, can cut it with a knife

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20 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

Its been about 1.5 to 2 years of heavy rain for you, but it does appear you are having some normal weather. Now you can walk in your backyard and not worry about losing a shoe or boot because it got stuck in the quicksand we all had in our backyards.  :smiley:

I swear I am not making this up: for the last two summers it has been less an issue of LOSING a shoe, than FINDING a shoe.  I've had so much detritus run through my yard, in flood waters, it's hard to believe.  I know that someone upstream of me really likes Miller Lite in cans.  Lots of those came by.  Other beers and sodas, in bottles and cans.  Unfortunately a fair amount of glass, too.  Quite a few flip-flops and other footwear.   A rusted, but still whole, battery box from I'm guessing a tractor.  Lots and lots of plastic waste - wrappers and such.  Cups from Dunkin Donuts and other vendors of fine cuisine.  

Even in lovely Bucks County, there are plenty of fools who just toss their stuff on the ground.  Sad, but true.  

I policed it all, of course.  Anything I found I gathered it up and threw it away.  Wore gloves for the nastier bits...

It has been "an adventure" as they say.

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Its been raining at a good clip for the past 30-45 mins. The back edge should be here soon.

WUNIDS_map?num=6&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=240&brand=wui&delay=15&frame=0&scale=1&transx=0&transy=0&severe=0&smooth=0&centerx=400&centery=240&station=ENX&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&noclutter=0&showlabels=1&showstorms=5&rand=26095904

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1 hour ago, RobBucksPA said:

I swear I am not making this up: for the last two summers it has been less an issue of LOSING a shoe, than FINDING a shoe.  I've had so much detritus run through my yard, in flood waters, it's hard to believe.  I know that someone upstream of me really likes Miller Lite in cans.  Lots of those came by.  Other beers and sodas, in bottles and cans.  Unfortunately a fair amount of glass, too.  Quite a few flip-flops and other footwear.   A rusted, but still whole, battery box from I'm guessing a tractor.  Lots and lots of plastic waste - wrappers and such.  Cups from Dunkin Donuts and other vendors of fine cuisine.  

Even in lovely Bucks County, there are plenty of fools who just toss their stuff on the ground.  Sad, but true.  

I policed it all, of course.  Anything I found I gathered it up and threw it away.  Wore gloves for the nastier bits...

It has been "an adventure" as they say.

Luckily for me...neighbors in these parts generally just burn their trash so they don't have to pay for disposal...:classic_dry:

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The 15Z HRRR only shows spotty convection in NJ, PA and NY into the evening. However there is a convective line that forms in the Va. area later today.

hrrr_ref_frzn_us_fh1-15.gif.1fb077f20d9ec0204d2ebad311d2f1eb.gif

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The Afternoon SPC update has dropped the enhance risk in the East.

image.thumb.png.b4f4af6c1ecf96d388c43ed986b745ab.png

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1 hour ago, RobBucksPA said:

know that someone upstream of me really likes Miller Lite in cans.  Lots of those came by

Sorry, I was setting buoys

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Was down in Beach Haven watching the northern part of LBI get soaked.  Back in Ship Bottom now and it’s sprinkles.  

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1 hour ago, telejunkie said:

Luckily for me...neighbors in these parts generally just burn their trash so they don't have to pay for disposal...:classic_dry:

Have some people like that here, the smell of burning plastic can be horrendous, especially if it rains at the same time. 

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Not exactly the forecasted typhoon but light rain on and off, not enough to wet the pavement under the trees though. Good thing I sandbagged around the house yesterday. :classic_wink:

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Delmarva area may be seeing some action soon if not already.

image.png.092765b65ae1d66953deacc51d581a81.png

Radar from Philly looks active. South NJ should keep an eye to the sky.

WUNIDS_map?num=6&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=240&brand=wui&delay=15&frame=0&scale=1&transx=0&transy=0&severe=0&smooth=0&centerx=400&centery=240&station=DIX&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&noclutter=0&showlabels=1&showstorms=5&rand=26095363

 

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Kinda has that winter storm feeling. ....in the wheelhouse 24 hours out and then it dips 200 miles south

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So far just a muggy, cloudy day here, with a few drops of rain.  Temp 77, dp 70, humidity 78%. It's hard to tell, looking at the radar, whether we'll get any measurable rain or not. :classic_mellow:

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my cat is reporting dangerous drizzle

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20 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

my cat is reporting dangerous drizzle

 

My cats didn't even bother to put on their boots this morn

Had a nice nap, did I miss anything? I see the title is heavy rain now where? when? who? :352nmsp:

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Well this is turning out to be quite lackluster. Might not even reach 0.25" when the NWS was forecasting 2". :classic_mellow:.

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Ahhh...getting a nice little shower. The air is so heavy here today, I kept looking at the pool surface to see if it was raining. Finally started. 

Despite the humidity and warm temps, it's beginning to look and feel like the end of summer. Leaves are falling, some flowers are struggling to keep their blooms, getting dark early. I still feel like I have to go back to school in a few weeks, that always made me sad, the thought of going from being outdoors all day to being cooped up in a classroom. 

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5 hours ago, PlanetMaster said:

Not exactly the forecasted typhoon but light rain on and off, not enough to wet the pavement under the trees though. Good thing I sandbagged around the house yesterday. :classic_wink:

Yeah.  Now that a few thousand people were spooked, they’ll learn nada. They’ll use the same apocalyptic language next time. 

Mistakes happen. People are famous for forgiving mistakes.

Calling for Doom, if you’re not sure?  That’s not a mistake; that’s just irresponsible.  People are less forgiving of chronic irresponsibility.

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Ended up with about a half inch of rain here in Pittsburgh today. Because it was cloudy all day and the gaps between the rain weren't too long, it actually only got to 72 today here! Our fifth day in a row it was below normal. For daytime highs, it looks like Pittsburgh was one of the coolest today in the Eastern half of the country! 

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2 minutes ago, RobBucksPA said:

Yeah.  Now that a few thousand people were spooked, they’ll learn nada. They’ll use the same apocalyptic language next time. 

Mistakes happen. People are famous for forgiving mistakes.

Calling for Doom, if you’re not sure?  That’s not a mistake; that’s just irresponsible.  People are less forgiving of chronic irresponsibility.

 

It wont change because its not the fine men and women that work there but the 100% complete reliability on the computer forecast models which are obviously having issues with whats really happening up/out there. I always heard numbers like the models are 50% accurate, or 75% accurate, even over 85% but in my experience and observation overall they barely crack 5% or 10% accuracy on a daily basis. if you are off 5 of the 7 days of the week and we are talking forecasts within 24 hours so no excuses, lol how the hell do you achieve 80% ??? :352nmsp:

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3 hours ago, Solstice said:

Well this is turning out to be quite lackluster. Might not even reach 0.25" when the NWS was forecasting 2". :classic_mellow:.

Well ya got me beat...barely hit the 0.1" mark but not sure what NWS was forecasting for mby. After the end of week and weekends bouts of showers though, grounds not feeling dry any longer though, so not disappointed. Just gonna enjoy the weather the next couple of days before heights begin to build next week. Thinking by end of next week, we're back in the sauce...

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Did wind up getting some torrential mist last night, pea sized water beads on the leaves this morn told the tale :classic_sleep:

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