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Hiramite

Arctic Sea Ice

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Starting an Arctic Sea Ice thread.  

As of 8/21/18, another below average/normal year.

 

 

Sea ice.PNG

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Yea if it werent for the harsh downfall that took place in July it would have held ok, not a recovery but not to an extreme low enough to make through the melt season, but alas that has come and passed. We see it holding steady now as we round the last couple of weeks of the melt season. There have been talks as to whether or not we get below 5million square miles on the extent. Ill try to post some things then but area is doing ok as well as volume but volume we lost a good chunk of the multi-year ice over the past 5+ years, such a shame but maybe this could be a cycle within the regime? This will have to be a wait and see situation. If the AMO continues on its cool phase then we may see some type of reversal but to what extent exactly is in question still with an ever warming arctic during the winter months it is getting harder and harder to build thicker ice let alone another super el nino possibly down the road...

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Getting ready to turn the corner.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

(If this thread is more appropriate in the "Active Weather - Greenland/Arctic", please feel free to move.)

arctic.PNG

Edited by Hiramite
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Sea ice seems to be pretty similar to the past couple years (2014-17), but the date of minimum extent appears to be delayed somewhat relative to those years. Anyways, winter is upon us and the Arctic should be freezing up in short order. 

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Man oh man I wonder what this actually will mean for the future. Could this be the rubber band snap to cause full scale climate shift? I can only imagine that if there was no ice over the arctic during its cool period that rapid heat loss could occur in the NH since this is the dumping ground for warm oceans. Still crawling after a late minimum could see an issue where bering sea and near the beaufort gyre does not freeze over with that much heat sitting there.

arcticictnnowcast.gif.a584aef6895c6c6d17d347866208d7c0.gif

Great site here for just gathering quick updates in just about everything you ask for.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

Snow extent and equivalency pushing the +1SD so far and the expected big boom across siberia could really get things going. Also with equivalency this makes me think there is more moisture in the air to work with which is raising water levels in snow amounts quite a bit which makes sense that areas up north would have higher water content with a warming atmos up there. Saw this over the past couple years where some times we saw +2SD and lasting for quite awhile. Lets see how it plays out.

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6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Man oh man I wonder what this actually will mean for the future. Could this be the rubber band snap to cause full scale climate shift? I can only imagine that if there was no ice over the arctic during its cool period that rapid heat loss could occur in the NH since this is the dumping ground for warm oceans. Still crawling after a late minimum could see an issue where bering sea and near the beaufort gyre does not freeze over with that much heat sitting there.

arcticictnnowcast.gif.a584aef6895c6c6d17d347866208d7c0.gif

Great site here for just gathering quick updates in just about everything you ask for.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

Snow extent and equivalency pushing the +1SD so far and the expected big boom across siberia could really get things going. Also with equivalency this makes me think there is more moisture in the air to work with which is raising water levels in snow amounts quite a bit which makes sense that areas up north would have higher water content with a warming atmos up there. Saw this over the past couple years where some times we saw +2SD and lasting for quite awhile. Lets see how it plays out.

Boy oh boy, I haven’t checked for awhile. This isn’t good. Here’s the graph...

 

9B64346B-A8B8-430B-8868-ABCE1F265883.png

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2 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Boy oh boy, I haven’t checked for awhile. This isn’t good. Here’s the graph...

 

9B64346B-A8B8-430B-8868-ABCE1F265883.png

yea bad news bears of course im just curious to see how it continues on. Like I said I dont like to put it out there of a rubber band snapping but with limited data past 1979 its hard to know exactly what may be coming up. Seems that does follow the AMO transitions with other factors helping in the extreme department but with residual warmth in the oceans its hard to know what exactly may be the end result. 

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16 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Boy oh boy, I haven’t checked for awhile. This isn’t good. Here’s the graph...

 

9B64346B-A8B8-430B-8868-ABCE1F265883.png

tenor.gif.a3e94e23b6da0e5c84febf806464c8f4.gif

Edited by 1816

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13 minutes ago, 1816 said:

tenor.gif.a3e94e23b6da0e5c84febf806464c8f4.gif

Sad but true.

19 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

yea bad news bears of course im just curious to see how it continues on. Like I said I dont like to put it out there of a rubber band snapping but with limited data past 1979 its hard to know exactly what may be coming up. Seems that does follow the AMO transitions with other factors helping in the extreme department but with residual warmth in the oceans its hard to know what exactly may be the end result. 

Yeah, and bad news FOR THE bears.:classic_sad:

I think the ice was doing better the last few years, now this.  But like you said, we’ll see how it ends up. (Insert Fingers crosses emoji here.)

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On 10/15/2018 at 7:08 PM, Hiramite said:

Boy oh boy, I haven’t checked for awhile. This isn’t good. Here’s the graph...

 

9B64346B-A8B8-430B-8868-ABCE1F265883.png

Definitely different that historical records, but I think it's difficult to say whether it's good or bad. If you're reliant on sea ice (i.e. polar bears), it's definitely bad news. If you're a snow loving human being living in certain mid-latitude locations, it could be good news. 

Overall, recent observations suggest sea ice extent will increasingly be modulated by the solar cycle. More specifically, diffuse radiation associated with twilight conditions will be increasingly important during the freeze-up stage. 

Even though sunset at the north pole occurs on September 25th (i.e. autumnal equinox), various stages of twilight last until November 13. For example,  civil twilight (bright enough to continue outdoor activities) lasts until October 8th and the horizon is visible through October 25th. Complete darkness only exists at the north pole for 2-3 months (11/13 to 1/29). Source: https://www.livescience.com/32814-arctic-daylight-darkness-myth-equinox.html

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On 10/15/2018 at 7:36 PM, Hiramite said:

Sad but true.

Yeah, and bad news FOR THE bears.:classic_sad:

I think the ice was doing better the last few years, now this.  But like you said, we’ll see how it ends up. (Insert Fingers crosses emoji here.)

Minimum sea ice extent was tied with 2008 and 2010 for the 6th lowest extent in the satellite period of record. Thus, at the minimum extent, there was more ice this year than was observed in 2012, 2016, 2007, 2011, or 2015.

In other words, it could definitely be worse.

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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2 hours ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Definitely different that historical records, but I think it's difficult to say whether it's good or bad. If you're reliant on sea ice (i.e. polar bears), it's definitely bad news. If you're a snow loving human being living in certain mid-latitude locations, it could be good news. 

For me personally, as I stated in another thread on this topic, I would rather have ice in the arctic and take my chances with all the other factors that bring snow and cold.

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3 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

For me personally, as I stated in another thread on this topic, I would rather have ice in the arctic and take my chances with all the other factors that bring snow and cold.

I definitely agree. The climate that humanity thrived in for centuries no longer exists, which is already and will continue to disproportionately impact the most vulnerable people/communities/countries. 

However, every problem creates opportunities. Continued climate change is inevitable for several generations to come. Thus, I prefer the glass half full perspective. In other words, who/what/when/where are the opportunities greatest and how do we maximize (socialize?) those opportunities.

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Getting ready to cross the pathetic 2012 line (hopefully). More importantly, the rate of increase is higher than average.

This may not be typical for the entire arctic, but single digit highs in Prudoe Bay today (10/29) and tomorrow, then starting 11/1, highs in the teens for the foreseeable future.

 

84C473FF-F57C-4EBE-BDD8-19FA70BF3E02.png

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Extent starting to push back to average ish which is better then nothing. Temps still not cooperating across the arctic for growth in thickness but we will still build it over time... Im curious to see how the bering sea/chukchi sea cooperates this year. So far with constant ridging that has set up has not allowed much ice growth in that region as has been the case for a couple years now. It eventually does cover up but not much into the bering strait region tough stuff of course wonder if this is still apart of a cycle of if we are still on the roadway to more open ice over time. I like to think that the open ocean has some effect since no ice it allows heat to escape into the atmos one creating stronger systems but also adding moisture into the air allowing more snowfall but in return warmer temps.

Air temps over in the Atlantic side just not cooperating either if anybody happens to have a site that shows current and past sub-surface temps/anoms in the arctic please post been trying to find might have to visit nevins site for something.

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27 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Extent starting to push back to average ish which is better then nothing. Temps still not cooperating across the arctic for growth in thickness but we will still build it over time... Im curious to see how the bering sea/chukchi sea cooperates this year. So far with constant ridging that has set up has not allowed much ice growth in that region as has been the case for a couple years now. It eventually does cover up but not much into the bering strait region tough stuff of course wonder if this is still apart of a cycle of if we are still on the roadway to more open ice over time. I like to think that the open ocean has some effect since no ice it allows heat to escape into the atmos one creating stronger systems but also adding moisture into the air allowing more snowfall but in return warmer temps.

Air temps over in the Atlantic side just not cooperating either if anybody happens to have a site that shows current and past sub-surface temps/anoms in the arctic please post been trying to find might have to visit nevins site for something.

I don't have last year's data saved or anything but if memory serves don't we have at least a bit of a head start at the Alaskan north coast? I am optimistic we see more ice out there this winter. 

Edited by 1816

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1 hour ago, 1816 said:

I don't have last year's data saved or anything but if memory serves don't we have at least a bit of a head start at the Alaskan north coast? I am optimistic we see more ice out there this winter. 

Im going to find a new site for comparison as well but I think we are about on track for normal ice growth but may get halted in due time. Right now it looks like we have been in a trough pattern up there but looks like the pac jet extentsion may add into the idea of ridging to rebuild up that way for third week of the month leading to another push of warmth just gotta keep an eye on it if we get continual storm activity it will cool so it will lead to ice growth eventually but if my memory serves me we didnt freeze, and barely did, into january. The amount of heat up in the water is certainly not conducive. We will know better by say next week.

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Figured I would post a couple of these things here:

https://floe.keytwist.net/esrl-daily-forecasts/2018-11-01

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,3.0.html

Nevins forum site is very informative for those who are looking to learn in depth analysis im not a huge fan of the doom and gloom that many of the seasoned posters in there post about as I feel they take it to another level of "oh man the arctic is done for" but regardless still very informative and the analysis of detailed maps is great though.

Edited by so_whats_happening
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17 hours ago, 1816 said:

I don't have last year's data saved or anything but if memory serves don't we have at least a bit of a head start at the Alaskan north coast? I am optimistic we see more ice out there this winter. 

Yes, some ice survived in the Beaufort this year allowing a quicker freeze than last year. The Chukchi still looks like garbage, maybe even a tad worse this year, but as @so_whats_happening said, it took till January the last two years to completely cover the Chukchi, so there's time to catch up.

2017

asi-AMSR2-n3125-20171105-v5_nic.jpg.0e1563a5450f99987aefff934a1855e0.jpg

2018

asi-AMSR2-n3125-20181105-v5_nic.jpg.20e22f129b19fbb6f6d7c5aa84e2c115.jpg

The University of Bremen has a nice site for looking at the last 10 years. 

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/#p=sic

As far as building ice for the future, I'd look to PIOMASS.  We would need multiple consecutive years of very cold winters, and ice retention over the summer melt to make any meaningful recovery.  Most of the old, thick, de-brined ice has vanished, so the arctic is dominated by young, first year ice that can only really thicken up about 2, meters thermodynamically. 

BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY.thumb.png.3c397bcf17fb8f8f630787fcc0a88127.png

Close up of recent years.BPIOMAS_CY_IceVolumeAnomaly_V2.1.thumb.png.41ef8c7dc10cecf385a95edf1e269f41.png

We as still near in the bottom 5, and looking at the distribution, the one area that's healthy is along the western Canadian archipelago. Depending on how strong the Beaufort gyre is, some of this ice will be drawn into the Beaufort Sea, which has generally been a place where  sea ice dies in recent years.  

SPIOMAS_ThicknessAnomalyCurrent.png.e74a5b48b230e60b877eab7a5f3b9b3f.png

I'll look for the resource, but it's also wise to look at snowcover, and when it forms.  Early forming ice could get snowcover early in the season, this actually slows ice growth (ask any ice fisherman). It's preferable to have snow fall later in the winter to insulate it come melting season.

Unfortunately, we've lost nearly all the buoys up there and they haven't been replaced.  Hopefully, some are being deployed, because having those webcams was really helpful.

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12 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Yes, some ice survived in the Beaufort this year allowing a quicker freeze than last year. The Chukchi still looks like garbage, maybe even a tad worse this year, but as @so_whats_happening said, it took till January the last two years to completely cover the Chukchi, so there's time to catch up.

2017

asi-AMSR2-n3125-20171105-v5_nic.jpg.0e1563a5450f99987aefff934a1855e0.jpg

2018

asi-AMSR2-n3125-20181105-v5_nic.jpg.20e22f129b19fbb6f6d7c5aa84e2c115.jpg

The University of Bremen has a nice site for looking at the last 10 years. 

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/#p=sic

As far as building ice for the future, I'd look to PIOMASS.  We would need multiple consecutive years of very cold winters, and ice retention over the summer melt to make any meaningful recovery.  Most of the old, thick, de-brined ice has vanished, so the arctic is dominated by young, first year ice that can only really thicken up about 2, meters thermodynamically. 

BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY.thumb.png.3c397bcf17fb8f8f630787fcc0a88127.png

Close up of recent years.BPIOMAS_CY_IceVolumeAnomaly_V2.1.thumb.png.41ef8c7dc10cecf385a95edf1e269f41.png

We as still near in the bottom 5, and looking at the distribution, the one area that's healthy is along the western Canadian archipelago. Depending on how strong the Beaufort gyre is, some of this ice will be drawn into the Beaufort Sea, which has generally been a place where  sea ice dies in recent years.  

SPIOMAS_ThicknessAnomalyCurrent.png.e74a5b48b230e60b877eab7a5f3b9b3f.png

I'll look for the resource, but it's also wise to look at snowcover, and when it forms.  Early forming ice could get snowcover early in the season, this actually slows ice growth (ask any ice fisherman). It's preferable to have snow fall later in the winter to insulate it come melting season.

Unfortunately, we've lost nearly all the buoys up there and they haven't been replaced.  Hopefully, some are being deployed, because having those webcams was really helpful.

Awesome stuff MJ thank you for the site yea Archipelago  has really survived over the past couple of years. It seems as though the wobbling of the PV up north has helped with keeping the ice held up nicely. If this manages to get into the beaufort sea region maybe we see one of two things all of it melt away or old on and start to rebuild multi year ice pack better. It will be a wait and see situation. Besides the chukchi being a hot bath maybe this is the process needed to switch it up.

Over the years I feel like I have seen that small multi year ice, literally a strip, move from greenland westward from our perspective to more favorable area to help build. Im just worried about sub surface temps at this point because that is the real determiner of how thick some of this ice can get. The atmos is cold enough but could be colder just feel the added moisture regime up there is hurting and helping it at the same time if it can work in tandem where ice builds thickens and then the snows begin as you had stated maybe we start to make progress. Will revisit around thanksgiving to see where we are.

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Finally broke thru the -2SD line!!:dancing-banana-homer-simpson-smiley-emoticon:

eeee.PNG.164729aed90a7631f6c1442468db9f1f.PNG

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Still moving along as normal sea ice advancement has halted as expected in the chukchi sea region, Atlantic front is making a little progress but right around I believe its Franz Joseph Island is struggling. Overall the temps from 80N further up is doing pretty decent in the temp department which kind of is a little of an eye openner. Over the past years normally at about this time of the season we have some pretty wild swings in temps so far its been pretty tame.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Still too early in the season though to think of anything on a colder or warmer idea. 

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21 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Still moving along as normal sea ice advancement has halted as expected in the chukchi sea region, Atlantic front is making a little progress but right around I believe its Franz Joseph Island is struggling. Overall the temps from 80N further up is doing pretty decent in the temp department which kind of is a little of an eye openner. Over the past years normally at about this time of the season we have some pretty wild swings in temps so far its been pretty tame.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Still too early in the season though to think of anything on a colder or warmer idea. 

Thanks for the link. After clicking on all of the years, it’s fairly obvious that things are changing up there over the last 20 years or so.

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Here’s a link to one of the many recent articles discussing the arctic ice situation, including the loss of the older ice as discussed here. 

https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2018/12/11/the-arctic-is-in-even-worse-shape-than-we-realized/

The recent growth of new ice has slowed just a tad and is just outside the -2SD line but it sure is cold up there.

 

D6F656DA-199F-4089-B474-4851F0121989.png

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