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Hiramite

Arctic Sea Ice

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7 hours ago, Hiramite said:

Here’s a link to one of the many recent articles discussing the arctic ice situation, including the loss of the older ice as discussed here. 

https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2018/12/11/the-arctic-is-in-even-worse-shape-than-we-realized/

The recent growth of new ice has slowed just a tad and is just outside the -2SD line but it sure is cold up there.

 

D6F656DA-199F-4089-B474-4851F0121989.png

Even though it is cold to our standards many would say it has been colder though over a much larger area. The Atlantic front just looks dismal lol You can kind of see the pattern on that side as well from model interpretation.

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10 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Don’t know if you really meant to attach that one, but I think the “volume” chart you show above is only valid thru 2016.  The “area” and “extent” charts are valid thru the current day but they don’t look much better, unfortunately.

Edited by Hiramite

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15 hours ago, Hiramite said:

Don’t know if you really meant to attach that one, but I think the “volume” chart you show above is only valid thru 2016.  The “area” and “extent” charts are valid thru the current day but they don’t look much better, unfortunately.

Ugh, a stupid and lazy mistake on my part, thanks for pointing that out.

Here's the up to date extent.

nsidc_global_extent_byyear_b.thumb.png.566e7b11c9213f909d02f8550f23606e.png

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice

The low ice also has important geopolitical ramifications.

Snippet

Quote

In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee in April, Navy Secretary Richard Spencer announced that a rewrite of the Navy’s Arctic strategy was underway.  Asked by a reporter after the hearing what prompted the new strategy just four years after the Navy issued its U.S. Navy Arctic Roadmap 2014-2030, Spencer stated “the damn thing melted.” 

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/422871-the-damn-thing-melted-climate-change-and-us-interests-in-the-arctic

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Posted (edited)

An anomaly map of the arctic ice.

https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

EDIT:  I now see MJ posted a similar map awhile back. So consider this an update. :classic_smile:

 

B66D07C1-75C9-41EB-AB72-EA1C741D1404.png

Edited by Hiramite
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On 1/7/2019 at 7:25 PM, Hiramite said:

Didn’t know where to post this article, but it’s interesting nonetheless.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a25781337/ocean-colder-climate-change-little-ice-age/

One thing from that article that gets me:

Quote

If parts of the ocean can remain cold for hundreds of years after a small ice age, what will happen to the oceans when the planet warms? How long will that warming last in the ocean’s depths? If this research is any indication, we could still be feeling the effects of climate change hundreds of years from now.

Density plays a huge role in how the water moves as well as salinity.

 

My understanding is if you have warmer waters it can naturally can hold more salt but also would essentially speed up the downwelling process with the salt causing more of a sinking motion to take place making the water more dense and thus starting a cooling process. Stratification also plays a role in this overturning processs. if you have less dense waters (warmer waters) over top of dense cool water its not going to have much of a process unless you introduce salt into the equation then you get a better balanced idea. Well the salt has to come from somewhere so evarporation upticks from warmer waters to help with this process.Well when you get stronger evaporation processes taking place you tend to flood another area with loads of moisture that was there but not in the amount it previously held. So instead of it being say for example 1.0 PWAT values in the region you get say 1.1 or even 1.2 PWAT values well that changes a lot by adding more moisture might not seem like it but small changes in the amount of water in the atmosphere have consequences. They tend to be on the short term of things but over time that build up makes a noticeable difference.

With water sinking in the ocean it has to mix out with the changing densities and salinity of the ocean so cold water will continue to sink and cool at the rate of which the exchange takes place. But a warmer pattern at the surface would only slow the process of down-welling until it reaches a threshold than that process reverts and essentially restarts, kind of like a hard reboot on the system. You dont get warming coming from the surface down to depths there are processes that make this happen but those are usually within the top 100-200meters of depth. Im sure there are small fluctuations of warmth that do occur from turbulent mixing in depth greater than the surface region just not sure about a lasting affect from a warming ocean being the case to affect deep down. The ocean overall absorbs heat but the overall change in processes shouldnt change at depths just shallow which would halt depths essentially like a lock on the door.

 

Regardless of this the arctic has been rather normal this year more so colder than we have seen on the western (AK) side which may help in summer time. Time will tell of course.

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Made this in the morning, but couldn't post. Better late than never. Here's roughly 6 days (150 hours) loop. Contrast enhanced, light colors are cold, darker is warmer. Bright white ice is possibly older.  High pressure over the Beaufort sea has got the th gyre going a bit.  Ice is stripped of of Amundsen gulf. Pretty good movement along the Alaskan and Siberian coasts, not sure that this ice is all that thick.  Solid southerly relatively warm flow over the Bering Strait is also evident. 

ezgif-1-8e23e75344ac.gif.6326fb526447604118a1fac432c5f1e5.gif

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/search?utf8=✓&search[sensors][3]=1&search[feeds][16]=1&search[feeds][1]=1&search[feeds][15]=1&search[feeds][17]=1&search[feeds][3]=1&search[feeds][18]=1&search[feeds][10]=1&search[feeds][11]=1&search[feeds][9]=1&search[feeds][8]=1&search[feeds][12]=1&search[feeds][13]=1&search[feeds][14]=1&search[feeds][6]=1&search[feeds][5]=1&search[start]=&search[end]=&commit=Search

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One of a few articles recently on the Greenland ice field. It also mentions the NAO and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Article

 

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1 hour ago, Hiramite said:

One of a few articles recently on the Greenland ice field. It also mentions the NAO and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Article

 

The link looks like it was truncated when you copied it, so it didn't work, but I think I found it.

Was this the link? 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/21/climate/greenland-ice.html

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13 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

The link looks like it was truncated when you copied it, so it didn't work, but I think I found it.

Was this the link? 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/21/climate/greenland-ice.html

Thanks MJ! My apologies, forgot to test it.  There were several similar articles based on the study.  The one you posted has more discussion on the NAO.

This is the one that I tried to link. It briefly mentions the AMOC. It’s a link through Apple. Let me know if it doesn’t work and I’ll try again. Thanks again.

https://apple.news/AUbtWd97tRjKKeDbut2UUww

 

Edited by Hiramite
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ASCAT imagery from mid September to Feb 2, pretty much covers the bulk of the freezing session, at least in regards to ice cover, some thickening at higher latitudes can be expected.   Plus, there's always overlap as some areas will be melting (not yet) and others still freezing. 

  While many factors go into ice cover and distribution of thickest floes, the lack of a -NAO in recent years has likely helped retain some ice.   Generally, high pressure over Greenland promotes export out the Fram Strait. One can see a bit of a surge in export during much of January. 

 The relatively rapid freeze over in much of the Laptev, East Siberian, ana Beaufort seas is also evident.   It'll be interesting to see how that arm of thicker ice that can be seen advecting into the Beaufort holds up. It's been a place where ice goes to die in several recent summers. 

 Lastly, the Nares Strait (NW of Greenland) also appears to remain open currently, not unprecedented to resist freeze over.  While not a ton of ice can escape through that route, I've that does make it down is often quite thick. 

ezgif-1-5bf53ecacb9f.gif.6c48b5c49096e9715a6a0c8684e1c49c.gif

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/

Sorry for the clunkiness of this plot, I wanted Greenland down and the scale. 

850 temps from November 1- January 30. 

ezgif-1-db2e9f58a680.gif.e7173e2c00073c7567f3880dac449048.gif

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An update of the simplistic ice coverage chart.  About 2-4 weeks of ice building left. Hopefully it goes well. 

8CD3E670-68CE-4685-8E06-E10112AF16EF.png

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On 2/2/2019 at 8:35 AM, MaineJay said:

ASCAT imagery from mid September to Feb 2, pretty much covers the bulk of the freezing session, at least in regards to ice cover, some thickening at higher latitudes can be expected.   Plus, there's always overlap as some areas will be melting (not yet) and others still freezing. 

  While many factors go into ice cover and distribution of thickest floes, the lack of a -NAO in recent years has likely helped retain some ice.   Generally, high pressure over Greenland promotes export out the Fram Strait. One can see a bit of a surge in export during much of January. 

 The relatively rapid freeze over in much of the Laptev, East Siberian, ana Beaufort seas is also evident.   It'll be interesting to see how that arm of thicker ice that can be seen advecting into the Beaufort holds up. It's been a place where ice goes to die in several recent summers. 

 Lastly, the Nares Strait (NW of Greenland) also appears to remain open currently, not unprecedented to resist freeze over.  While not a ton of ice can escape through that route, I've that does make it down is often quite thick. 

ezgif-1-5bf53ecacb9f.gif.6c48b5c49096e9715a6a0c8684e1c49c.gif

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/

Sorry for the clunkiness of this plot, I wanted Greenland down and the scale. 

850 temps from November 1- January 30. 

ezgif-1-db2e9f58a680.gif.e7173e2c00073c7567f3880dac449048.gif

It looks like the thick ice on the Siberian side of the pole is beat down or squashed. Am I seeing that right? Or is it getting exported.  Seems like a lot less of it over there at the end, but I don't really know what I'm looking at. Another cool visual, thanks MJ. 

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On 2/22/2019 at 4:15 PM, 1816 said:

It looks like the thick ice on the Siberian side of the pole is beat down or squashed. Am I seeing that right? Or is it getting exported.  Seems like a lot less of it over there at the end, but I don't really know what I'm looking at. Another cool visual, thanks MJ. 

The ice on the Siberian side *mostly* melts out in recent summers, so it's much more susceptible to shorter term weather patterns than the North American side, making it more difficult to ascertain ice conditions there in my opinion.

I believe this is still Cryosat-1 data, as Cryosat-2 was only recently launched and still being calibrated I believe.  These are January data, so we can compare when February is released.

Anomaly

cryosat_awi_anomaly_2019_01_2011_2018.2.1.thumb.png.b40458f430a3ebf135749f4efc9a1a64.png

Thickness, sorry about the discrepancy in projections,. This is more up to date.

thk_28.png.7ad6290398218d9ad9d9af29b3ea8834.png

It does look like the Siberian side is generally thinner than average (note that "average" is 2011-18), with bits of thicker ice peppered in there.  My hunch is that these thicker spots were ice that survived last summer, and are now dispersed amongst first year ice. Not that first year ice can really only thicken to about 2 meters unless it being rifted and shoved together. 

Here is the ASCAT from February, it picks up where the last left off.

ezgif-1-c36b820ce093.gif.c68478088798ac7a774f584c90689651.gif

So it looks like the thick ice north of Svalbard has progressed south, this may slow melt in that region, but it also means that ice is doomed.  You can also see a dark line to THE NE of Greenland marching south indicating modest Fram Strait export, so while that will buoy ice extent currently, it also means that thicker, older ice is leaving the arctic and again will be melted at lower latitudes only to be replaced by young ice.  Young ice still has brine in it, so it's melting point is actually lower than older ice that has had time to force the salt out.

Lately, and most strikingly, southerly winds over the Bering have decimated the ice there, and are now pushing ice in the southern Chukchi northward, creating open water north of the Strait.  To be clear, there's likely no real melting going on in the Chukchi, but it's not good for sea ice health to have open water this far north to begin March, even though is wind blown.

ChukchiBeaufort_AMSR2_nic.thumb.png.61acd80d53b2b4118f0f48f54fc602ac.png

ASMR2 is sensitive to liquid water, so that area NW of Alaska isn't low concentration ice, but could be from rain wetting the surface.

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I've been one to expect this to reverse itself at some point. I figure the earth does cycles so sooner or later we will go back to building ice.  I still believe that but I'm starting to think it won't be anytime soon. The ice free arctic thing is starting to seem possible.  

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On 3/2/2019 at 1:18 PM, 1816 said:

I've been one to expect this to reverse itself at some point. I figure the earth does cycles so sooner or later we will go back to building ice.  I still believe that but I'm starting to think it won't be anytime soon. The ice free arctic thing is starting to seem possible.  

Yup, the trend is unidirectional and likely accelerating consistent with global temperature trends. 

mean-arctic sea ice anomaly-1953-2018.png

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Posted (edited)

Depressing.  But the “crabbers” are probably happy.

 

Edited by Hiramite
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The last 2-3 weeks haven't been kind to Arctic sea ice.

N_stddev_timeseries.thumb.png.bc91841f790710daad9597d95dde3864.png

Most of these losses are in the peripheral seas, but the Chukchi is feeling the pain as well.  For some reason, the AMSR2 instrument is picking up on unusually low concentrations north of Alaska, it's likely an artifact, but not sure from what. 

1949151766_ChukchiBeaufort_AMSR2_nic(1).thumb.png.d6af21f4b42590e099489ef36883c74f.png

There's defiantly some riffing, but not to that extend.  The AMSR2 is sensitive to liquid water, but I think temps have been too low for any surface melt.  Skies were clear in the area yesterday, we'll see if it disappears tomorrow.

npp.20190331.2150_I03_I02_I01.thumb.jpg.2af0e7f4b87bbb1991f22bba50ad7cab.jpg

 

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Posted (edited)

This certainly isn’t helping and it does have the “chicken or the egg” thing going on with the air temps vs the sea ice.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/alaska-temperatures-expected-to-soar-40-degrees-above-normal-this-weekend/

And FWIW, I have Prudhoe Bay listed in my phone to track it’s current and forecasted temps. This past Saturday , my daytime high was colder than Prudhoe Bay’s! 

Edited by Hiramite
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Ascat for March.

2007329840_ezgif-1-20eef1429b10(1).gif.e14e404b8964f6180e53876210f55729.gif

I'd say the highlights are the weak or even non existent Beaufort gyre.  Late season Bering Sea ice getting destroyed by strong southerly winds.  An open and active Nares strait.  A modest, but persistent march of ice towards the Fram Strait, which is some fairly thick ice according to the latest PIOMASS.  Lastly, SW winds clearing a small part of the Kara sea.  

The vector wind anomalies match well.

compday.QPtcFbWNn8.gif.438b02f35bfdf8518e12ffa4ac315f03.gif

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