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UTSwiinii

October 1-4, 2018 | Warm Spell + FROPA + Severe Threat

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None of the NWS offices put out a PIS on rainfall that I can find.

Here is a broad, overdone, radar image to give a sense as to where the heaviest fell,  and the NYC radar.

Local airport reports over 1": , Danbury had 1.8".  White Plains 1.56"  Bridgeport 2.83"  Waterbury/Oxford 1.42" Hartford Brainard 1.53" Pawtucket 1.14" Providence 1.35" Taunton 1.16"

1463968474_10-2rainfall.gif.3ad586725525c30d73869ac26e958e09.gif

1480683229_10-2nycradarrainfall.PNG.1e8eff331077b626627fd8984dd9611e.PNG

I did find a public info statement from Norton/Taunton - 

CONNECTICUT

...Hartford County...
   South Glastonbury     2.35   845 PM 10/02  Ham Radio
   Newington             2.19   806 PM 10/02  Ham Radio
   Wethersfield          2.10   901 PM 10/02  Ham Radio
   Farmington            1.72   913 PM 10/02  Ham Radio

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Another moist day here in Pascagoula, Pennsylvania.  We appear to have suffered a mortar attack just after 2200 last night.  88's, by the sight and sound of them.  Flash - BANG!

Fortunately my brave war-hounds found the courage to huddle in the bathroom during the worst of it.  We were completely protected... at least we were if, in the middle of a violent storm, we needed to use the loo.

Aside from the weather (what can you do, right?), the big news is that the deluge didn't force my creek to blow its banks again.  I still have a driveway, for which I am truly thankful.  

Anyone suffer damage?

 

 

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NOAA's calling for a high of 76, but they have chronically predicted too low for this festival of happiness.  I'm guessing 79 or 80, with a heat index seven or eight degrees above that.  Tomorrow is supposed to be warmer still, and significantly more humid.  Oct-toaster, indeed.

Almost time to harvest the sugar cane, I'm guessing...

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The gloom seems similar to yesterday morning, just not as far SE. I really need sun to dry things out a little here in PA. Wish I kept track of the days without sun this year, the numbers would be staggering.

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif.ec2b684575995928c8e3646814eb1b52.gif

 

Edited by PA Snow 84

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39 minutes ago, RobBucksPA said:

this festival of happiness

Ha, that pretty much sums it up!   Nothing like a clammy October morning.  I keep waiting for some good news, something crisp and cool on the horizon....just keep seeing more heat....

 

Image result for heat miser  gif

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22 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

Haven't gotten word yet from my shipmate, but I wonder on PM did...

 

 

Here is the official NWS report via Public Information Statement in spoiler.

Spoiler

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
835 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2018

PRELIMINARY SURVEY RESULTS FOR RONKONKOMA, NY.

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 02 OCTOBER 2018 TORNADO EVENT...

.TORNADO SURVEY RESULTS FOR RONKONKOMA, NY...

START LOCATION...RONKONKOMA IN SUFFOLK COUNTY, NY
END LOCATION...RONKONKOMA IN SUFFOLK COUNTY, NY
DATE...OCTOBER 2 2018
ESTIMATED TIME...11:20 PM TO 11:22 PM
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...85 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...200 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...400 YARDS
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

...SUMMARY...
DAMAGE WAS CONFINED LARGELY TO IROQUOIS ST, SENECA ST, AND ONTARIO ST ALONG 
MOHICAN AVE IN RONKONKOMA, NY. NUMEROUS HOMES SUSTAINED DAMAGE TO SIDING, GUTTERS,
AND OUTDOOR FURNITURE. TREES HAVE VISIBLY SHEARED TOPS, AND AT LEAST TWO OR 
THREE TREES WERE DOWNED UPON CARS.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

$$

 

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Ended up with about 1.25” yesterday and this morning...seemed like more, but right in line with NWS predictions

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I just heard from a friend up in Hunterdon County, NJ.  Lots of trees down.  He had to turn around and work from home.

Certainly not equivalent to a true Tropical Storm, but still - quite an event for October.

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1.66" at KFWN last night and nothing severe.  Distant, but booming rumbles from 7:30p - 12:30a.  Hope everyone else fared as well. 

Edited by Miller A

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3 hours ago, Maureen said:

Ha, that pretty much sums it up!   Nothing like a clammy October morning.  I keep waiting for some good news, something crisp and cool on the horizon....just keep seeing more heat....

 

Image result for heat miser  gif

He's Mister Heat Blister - he's Mister One hundred one. (lol)

I recall seeing that September overnight lows were the highest in recorded history, for most of the east. I forget the source though but it was an official report. 

I'm kind of digging it though. Each to his own heart, as the saying goes. 

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Man, those storms were wicked last night, maybe worst of the summer/fall so far this year! Only lasted about 20-30 minutes but non-stop lightning the entire time! Bring on some warm and dry weather for the long range, the amount of qpf of the last 3-4 weeks here has been depressing and my yard is a swamp. Mosquitoes are worse of the year so far.

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6 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

He's Mister Heat Blister - he's Mister One hundred one. (lol)

 

I swear I am not making this up.

I pulled into Target this past Sunday.  Leaving the store is a chap with a fauxhawk hair cut, the hair spiked - and dyed just like what you see here.

So I, being me, start singing the song.  The guy couldn't hear me, but I wouldn't have cared if he did.  My 20 year old daughter, otoh, was mortified...

FRIENDS CALL ME HEAT MISER

EVERYTHING THAT I TOUCH

STARTS TO MELT IN MY CLUTCH

I'M TOO MUCH...

Now I'll hear this song all day.  The weird heat of the day only drives it home more.

 

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11 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

I recall seeing that September overnight lows were the highest in recorded history, for most of the east. I forget the source though but it was an official report. 

Is it cool anywhere?  Is Europe experiencing a cooler than usual autumn?  Asia?  

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43 minutes ago, RobBucksPA said:

Is it cool anywhere?  Is Europe experiencing a cooler than usual autumn?  Asia?  

It certainly isn't Alaska up through the north pole from the Bering Sea side of things...but that does look to mellow and the polar vortex seems like it wants to get going in the longer range. Nunavut and interior Canada has been seemingly getting the brunt of the cold anomalies from where i stand. But here in the states were currently locked in a trough west- ridge east (strong -PNA) that is looking to provides the intermountain west with a series of storms (which they desperately need). Looking like the second and third rounds (maybe fourth?) could provide quite a bit of white for upper elevations. Need some more peeps on this board from out that way!

But as for this thread...bubble early next week looks to be smoking the good stuff...new thread or extension time?

Edited by telejunkie

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Radar loop from 1900 UTC yesterday to 0600 UTC today. Focused on Fairfield County. Impressive wall of water following the severe threat.

Edit - seems to be some weird glitch, but the majority is still viewable.

Webp.net-gifmaker_(44).gif.1e3c20b6cabc195c390a583bd425010d.gif

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I've heard from kids in school that they saw rotation / tornado forming. Not sure whether to believe or not. Though based off this tweet, which places it right at the school, it does seem to have backing.

 

NWS team doing a survey currently.

 

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 There are now 3 confirmed tornadoes in  NY from yesterday. Counties include Suffolk, Rockland and Westchester.  Also a confirmed tornado in New Canaan, CT. The PIS is very long since it includes other damage reports so I just provided the link below. What a stormy day to remember.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/severe_10022018

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?

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41 minutes ago, RobBucksPA said:

By "smoking the good stuff," do you mean "more hot/wet weather?"

GFS says warm...gotta be humid, but not much in the way of precip. Here is 12z GFS depiction between now and next Friday...gives a good depiction of where that HP sets up and its periphery.

Guessing mid-atlantic sump pumps won't know what to do with themselves...

Screen Shot 2018-10-03 at 3.48.04 PM.png

Edited by telejunkie

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2 hours ago, telejunkie said:

It certainly isn't Alaska up through the north pole from the Bering Sea side of things...but that does look to mellow and the polar vortex seems like it wants to get going in the longer range. Nunavut and interior Canada has been seemingly getting the brunt of the cold anomalies from where i stand. But here in the states were currently locked in a trough west- ridge east (strong -PNA) that is looking to provides the intermountain west with a series of storms (which they desperately need). Looking like the second and third rounds (maybe fourth?) could provide quite a bit of white for upper elevations. Need some more peeps on this board from out that way!

But as for this thread...bubble early next week looks to be smoking the good stuff...new thread or extension time?

Funny you should ask that because I've commented on the "new" thread and we will have to decide whether to merge the two or let it go. 

 

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Technically I was never in the tornado warning. From the first cell (the one that caused the tornado), I barely had any wind here, just a bunch of heavy rain. Goes to show how localized these can be.

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7 hours ago, telejunkie said:

It certainly isn't Alaska up through the north pole from the Bering Sea side of things...but that does look to mellow and the polar vortex seems like it wants to get going in the longer range. Nunavut and interior Canada has been seemingly getting the brunt of the cold anomalies from where i stand. But here in the states were currently locked in a trough west- ridge east (strong -PNA) that is looking to provides the intermountain west with a series of storms (which they desperately need). Looking like the second and third rounds (maybe fourth?) could provide quite a bit of white for upper elevations. Need some more peeps on this board from out that way!

But as for this thread...bubble early next week looks to be smoking the good stuff...new thread or extension time?

Well, at least we'll all get a break on Friday and many on Saturday too before the big week of misery/hell begins for most by Sunday. So wish I lived in Maine right now for the next 10 days. Meanwhile though from Calgary to Winnipeg in Canada, they've been hit by record freakishly early heavy snow, so nothing in the middle really anywhere. 

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6F650AB6-003B-4C77-8F9F-73962118939C.thumb.jpeg.ddc6128793771a946e34f9b8d7f9fd56.jpeg

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