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Mike W IN ALTMAR

2018-19 Season Long GL/NE Lake Effect Snow, Forecast and OBS: Oct 15 - May 1

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We had some streamers make it here in CT yesterday, but as rain...in January...after the cold front. 

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For the CLE area, the trend has been to increase the snow amounts during the last 3 forecast periods.  

I’m hoping for a little white stuff to go with the upcoming “cold”. It’s been awhile.

EE400AD0-43F1-4E27-98BC-C7B8126A352A.png

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Some WWA and WSW issued for the CLE forecast area.  (Pardon the t-storm warning boxes.) :classic_smile:

Waiting for the snow maps to update.

 

1699718E-2D4C-4B0C-BE49-48A83E2CA145.png

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Still no updated maps.  They’re probably busy with the severe wx in the area.

Here’s the 6:00 AM map which is basically unchanged from yesterday.

46DDAE1B-A454-492D-B96E-93C41835C008.png

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New snow map just out. Fairly significant uptick in amounts since the earlier map.  (I haven’t yet seen any local mets go along with these amounts yet.)

F6F7ABA0-28D0-4F34-8F54-4206CA41114F.png

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All by myself Don't wanna be All by myself...

Anyway, on going Lake enhanced snow continues in the CLE forecast area this morning.  Ground is coated IMBY with light snow falling. Starting to look like winter again.

True LE begins this evening as colder air moves in. 

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1.7” on the board at 9:30 with snow of varying intensity.   Lesser amounts on the ground/mud/puddels.

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Posted (edited)

@1:45pm (there’s a video there. :classic_smile:)

Just over 4” so far.  A lull now, a bit more expected overnight.

 

Edited by Hiramite
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Flurries here in CT  - streamer from the lake.

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Snow showers have been falling for over an hour. The fluff factor is high, so we are definitely into the lake-effect phase of the storm. Maybe we can get two inches of snow out of this.

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Just making a post every now and then to keep this thread from getting buried.:classic_cool:

I ended up with just over 6” falling but the warm ground and compaction has cut it to about 1/2 that for snow cover.

North central OH cashed in overnight and this AM with some nice totals! Still some ongoing snow in OH.

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yea, it's been a pretty rough winter for LES around these parts..

We have had 2-3 hybrid events to keep us afloat..

Every year all you hear about is the tug getting blasted on a west wind, i move 7 miles west of the hill and we can't buy a west wind lol

LR pattern looks good for some LES outbreaks, but don;t they always..

Have only about 6 more weeks of potential blockbuster lake effect, i just want one biggie haha..

 

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On 1/11/2019 at 6:05 PM, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

yea, it's been a pretty rough winter for LES around these parts..

We have had 2-3 hybrid events to keep us afloat..

Every year all you hear about is the tug getting blasted on a west wind, i move 7 miles west of the hill and we can't buy a west wind lol

LR pattern looks good for some LES outbreaks, but don;t they always..

Have only about 6 more weeks of potential blockbuster lake effect, i just want one biggie haha..

 

Welcome back Mike, lol. Did you move there specifically for the LES?

This far west, since there isn’t much fetch with L. Erie, we really depend on the added synoptic moisture.  Often times the arctic outbreaks are too dry to create significant LES over here. But the western basis is still ice free so at least we have a chance.

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This got me just a little excited lol

A very strong shortwave will dig south towards the Upper Great Lakes
Thursday night. This will help to drive an arctic cold front to our
doorstep by daybreak Friday while a weak sfc reflection will be
parked over southern Ontario in the vcnty of Lake Huron. The
boundary will generate scattered snow showers over our region with
lake enhanced snows being found east of both lakes. The lake effect
could become significant as the cold air deepens and a solid
westerly flow becomes established. Stay tuned...especially those
in and around the Tug Hill area.

The base of a longwave trough will push across the Lower Great Lakes
on Friday while the aforementioned arctic front will be stalled near
Lake Ontario. This will set the stage for an even colder day across
our region...but more importantly...the persistent westerly flow in
the vcnty of the boundary will favor an impressive plume of lake
snow near the Tug Hill. The remainder of the region will experience
scattered snow showers...but accumulations should be confined to
areas east of both lakes.

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HWO

A significant lake effect snow event is looking more possible from
later Thursday night into Saturday. If guidance remains consistent...
several feet of snow could accumulate in the vicinity of the Tug
Hill.
  • Wow! 1

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Lake effect question for you guys over here...

The GFS and FV3 show tremendous LES hits all up and down the west side of Michigan over the next week. The last Euro output I saw in another thread wasn't nearly as impressive. Other are in between. 

Historically and generally speaking, do you put stock in any one model over another when it comes to handling LES setups the best? Or is 'grain of salt' with all of them in the long range?

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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18 minutes ago, ZumaRat said:

Lake effect question for you guys over here...

The GFS and FV3 show tremendous LES hits all up and down the west side of Michigan over the next week. The last Euro output I saw in another thread wasn't nearly as impressive. Other are in between. 

Historically and generally speaking, do you put stock in any one model over another when it comes to handling LES setups the best? Or is 'grain of salt' with all of them in the long range?

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

I know enough to be dangerous, but IMO since there are so many factors, no one model does very well with LE, especially a few days out.  Hopefully @Mike W IN ALTMAR can chime in as well.  Here’s a link you might find helpful.

http://www.oswego.edu/~osscams/bfb_files/20151027_bfb_lakeeffect.pptx

Edited by Hiramite
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Nws going with around a foot here from tomorrow night into sat..

Going to be real close as it looks to be a wsw flow, keeping me on the southern fringes of the heaviest accumulations..

StormTotalSnowWeb (2).png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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22 hours ago, Hiramite said:

I know enough to be dangerous, but IMO since there are so many factors, no one model does very well with LE, especially a few days out.  Hopefully @Mike W IN ALTMAR can chime in as well.  Here’s a link you might find helpful.

http://www.oswego.edu/~osscams/bfb_files/20151027_bfb_lakeeffect.pptx

Thanks for that link. That was a good read!

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Snowing over in Stowe.

 

Current radar.

Spoiler

1534646966_hfd_None_anim(15).gif.8b4bc7460c8b2aa8b665fec7666953ef.gif

 

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Only picked up a few inches yesterday as the flow was to much out of the SW..

Another WWA issued for tomorrow with  4"-8" expected , flow looks much more westerly which is right in my wheel house..

 

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Should be a more active week in this thread imby..The extreme cold may be the olny negative, nothing worse then "sand" snow..

Monday Night
Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday
Snow. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday Night
Snow showers. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 9. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday
Occasional snow. High near 11. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday Night
Occasional snow. Low around -3. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday
Snow likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 9. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Thursday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around -2. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 12. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around -2. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday
A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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HWO

An extended period of severe winter conditons is expected Tuesday
night through Friday. Extremely cold air will build down into the
region with dangerously cold wind chills expected during this
period. Accumulating, possibly significant lake effect snow is
possible east of Lake Ontario during this period. Strong gusty winds
will likely cause periods of significant blowing and drifting snow
along with poor visibility.

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