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SNOWBOB11

November 15-16 | Winter Storm

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Next in a series of systems looks to move in at this time frame. It’s a cut off low type system and could have lots of moisture associated with it. Areas around S ON should be able to pick up some accumulation from this and areas further east in NB could see heavy amounts of snow from the system as it continues on its track.

Here are some model runs from today

GFSAD47DC45-B5E4-4EE4-A913-52D9AA307098.png.adae2d4ad4be7369ff1a4b84ebf52e58.png

GFS Snow map7B90B400-6FE1-4374-9110-E2DE1A655B22.png.39b5086bdd6c0fa2709bae137e784767.png

CMC7925F1D8-B9EA-4578-9A1D-C9168A9C90FD.png.ab54632c474a9251f175815abae05365.png

CMC Snow map931A4572-EE1F-407D-BD5A-8117B8AE5AE8.png.2ce65ab1395da9e07e5a1c4b09a361b3.png

12k NAME45CE59D-7F16-4F04-A4BE-2359E65E1610.png.79aa38374fadf792652252aea77875f5.png

12k NAM Snow mapC5E2B4EE-2BF9-4A84-B495-9555732F30C6.png.465a0b444d799109476d38deb8c2ce16.png

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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Would be nice to get some snow out of this down in the GTA as well after being left out with places further north.

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00z GFS isn't too impressive looking especially around the immediate lake shore areas, but the 00z CMC looks great, 4-5 inches of snow for Hamilton, GTA and north towards Barrie. 

00z Icon is just an inch or two, Nam is roughly 2-3 inches. 

Looking forward to the 06z runs later. 

 

Edit:    How accurate is the RGEM model? The 06z is showing 5+ inches of snow all around the lake. 

Edited by robv187

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Guys/Gals would really like to feature these threads on the dashboard but they need a region. Let me know what region this belongs in, doesn't have to be perfect but needs a region no matter to be featured and I will move it there. This is posted, as well as couple other storm threads, in an open forum thats is not for storm threads. Thanks

 

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yes please...Great Lakes I guess is where this would belong.  The old forum was much broader -  Eastern Canada.  Lol.  Great Lakes seems to small a region considering winter storms almost always affect all of Southern ON,  E Ontario, S QC and the Maritimes eventually.   

Even an Ontario/Quebec sub-forum would be cool.  

EDIT:  never mind.  I just clicked on that sub-forum and noticed it also says "St Lawrence lowlands" in the title.  That's perfect.  Thx! 

Edited by HamiltonWx

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Now onto the storm!

Models are surprisingly throwing down decent snow amounts for most of us.  I'm still not sure I buy it for the big cities along the lake shore, especially Toronto with the ESE wind.  I'll attempt to post some pics of the snow amounts being depicted by models this afternoon.  Not saying these are accurate...I could see a lot of people ending up with slushy mess, but the point is - potential is slowly increasing for a first snowfall for us.  Overnight/morning runs should bring specific regions into focus.

 

 

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Done, doing the write up now for homepage.Definitely makes a difference to be on homepage with threads, 10X more views and will start to grow this region slowly. Keep the threads coming!

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2 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

Done, doing the write up now for homepage.Definitely makes a difference to be on homepage with threads, 10X more views and will start to grow this region slowly. Keep the threads coming!

awesome! Thx a mil.  White stuff pouring out of the sky will get these threads hopping in no time!  

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as you can see from the recent model runs above,  the GTA/Hamilton/Niagara could see anywhere from  1cm - 18cm depending on which model is right.  LOL

Looking in depth at some of the temp profiles aloft, I could see Hamilton-Niagara doing better than Toronto-Burlington due to the ESE wind flow.  Some models nudge the upper temps above 0 in the Toronto area, but keep it around -1 or -2 in Hamilton-Niagara due to the lake influence not being felt along the south shore.  Tough forecast tho....literally anything can happen.

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Definitely some interesting model runs today. They have increased snow totals in most areas including around the lake shore. It will be interesting to see what the 00z models show.

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Let the games begin!

if we can hang on to enough cold air around lake Ontario we should do pretty good with this one.

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I'm in Markham so I think enough cold air will be in place for all snow here. It won't stick around long but it's only November after all.

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1 minute ago, Markj138 said:

Let the games begin!

if we can hang on to enough cold air around lake Ontario we should do pretty good with this one.

Welcome aboard buddy!

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5 minutes ago, Snowgeek93 said:

Welcome aboard buddy!

Thanks for the welcome & the link over at accu to point me in the right direction

Spoiler
Spoiler

 

 

 

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What do you guys think of making a Winter 2018-2019 thread where we can talk about up coming patterns & potential threats?

Edited by Markj138
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Nice to see everyone excited for a change, hope the storm performs for everyone here. Crazy snowfall contrasts between models though, i remember somone calling gfs "goofy for snow," not in this case lol.

Edited by robv187

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49 minutes ago, Markj138 said:

What do you guys think of making a Winter 2018-2019 thread where we can talk about up coming patterns & potential threats?

Good to see you made it over here.

There is a long range thread for canada. Look in the meteo discussion section on the boards home page. 

https://wxdisco.com/forums/forum/58-canada/

The new site takes some getting used to but I like the forum.

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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31 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

Good to see you made it over here.

There is a long range thread for canada. Look in the meteo discussion section on the boards home page. 

https://wxdisco.com/forums/forum/58-canada/

The new site takes some getting used to but I like the forum.

Thanks SNOWBOB,to bad we have to take a detour to get there haha,anyway looks good.

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CMC and RGEM with high totals on there 00z runs. Here’s the RGEM.

5D4F720A-832D-4470-AA47-90A1B229F80E.png.b846edd95b8a89b11fabb0e4b35a9325.png

Might be overdoing it a bit but still interesting to see.

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Thinking 5 cm is more than possible, it does look like Niagara Falls will get hit the hardest as far as southern ontario is concerned, not including places like Ottawa.

 

06z RGEM and Nam have 5+ inches still, HRDPS 6+. 

06z GFS and ICON are more reserved at 2-3 inches. 

Edited by robv187

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06z runs from this morning.

GFSDD541324-0676-4A01-AD1B-830A6AD9FCB3.png.ef5e5642d5751d8a25b76dd55753d165.png

NAM05AAF8D5-5691-4EF6-813F-8A853766BCF0.png.03f917194f9cec3b72b2df2631fc0394.png

RGEM93FF30AC-A2E9-4124-81EE-C4D4C6966684.png.08cc0732fa42e0ce33de10255bd6b383.png

5-10 cm at least looks more than likely for most areas in S ON. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some areas away from the lake approach 15cm.

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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