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Poconosnow

December 23-25, 2018 | Christmas Light Snow

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1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

Why not.  Heights are rising 

Yes but. Whenever we have a ridge like that on east coast it spells  warm air and  rain instead of snow for me in MD lol.  I prefer that trough to move farther east

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It will be very futile to try to discern too much from view of Hr240 Op runs. Might as well toss darts given the vast differences between the global models at that time (FV3, GFS, Euro, all with various timing differences - particularly the STJ, but also the Pac Jet). 

One thing I've notice is the same for all - NONE of them have a decent cold air feed (High pressure - over top - SE Canada, nor in the backing region -- both are occupied by weak shortwave energy).

Christmas is one of the few times I actually enjoy a good snowstorm. But so far, I'm not all too impressed with any one solution over another. And, I'm really not impressed with snow chances for the MidAtl. Of course, that is as things stand right now. 

 

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Run-to-run variance and model-to-model differences are :negative:

I think the only thing that can be said with much confidence is a storm forming near the southern plains will track northeast.

Details like how far south the storm forms and much of the storms' movement will be northerly versus easterly are simply unknown. 

With that said, my bold and unjustified forecast for this time frame is for two snowfall axes: the first from Dallas, TX to Detroit, MI and then a coastal transfer benefiting Albany, NY to Bangor, ME. Hopefully I'm wrong.

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9 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Euro control w a coastal scraper on Xmas day

A6565CE6-97D9-4A63-82AD-6549E779FBB8.png

Imo that's not a coastal scraper.... coastal scrapers barely get precip west of nyc (which we've seen plenty over the last few winters).  For this run your getting heavy snow back to pa.  Verbatim this is a classic bm track with snows to the coast, not a scraper

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does anyone have the EURO snow map for this storm?? im not able to access it through the pivotalweather website

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3 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

does anyone have the EURO snow map for this storm?? im not able to access it through the pivotalweather website

This is all it has for this run.

42203126_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined240.thumb.png.ed3febee6b9be23e90e1c31628ecd518.png

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1 hour ago, Snowadelphia said:

GFS a southern slider on this run. All solutions still on the table.

THats exactly what it showed for the March 2017 blizzard.  Give it time. Better there rather than a lousy cutter 

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Give it a couple of runs and it should be right on time to change it to a cutterThe_Wish_Casting_Monkey

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1 hour ago, jdrenken said:

*Pregame

Which frame you refering to?  Last one. I see some stars aligning in that one 

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6 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Which frame you refering to?  Last one. I see some stars aligning in that one 

Exactly...drop in verification at the beginning of the period in question.

IRE-month.jpg.e0027f287e52947e85ce46e898c137ab.jpg

 

 

TSER_PMSL_MRDG_DAY7_ANOMCORR (1).gif

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Main take away/ screaming message, for me is that we have the GOM open for business with traffic in the Northern Jet lane, for this time period (and beyond?). The potential mesh/mosh brings up intriguing possibility for winter weather lovers. 

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DT has a writeup on Facebook page that touches base on the several storm chances between now and NewYears .He thinks aren’t likely but still possible in his opinion .. WxRisk.com source 

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13 minutes ago, Jblizz68 said:

DT has a writeup on Facebook page that touches base on the several storm chances between now and NewYears .He thinks aren’t likely but still possible in his opinion .. WxRisk.com source 

Where does DT live ? 

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10 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Where does DT live ? 

True .. He is in central mid Atlantic region .. I thought he covered this whole region lol.. my bad .. I personally agree with UTS .. traffic to the north and an open gulf comment leaves doors open for many on this forum thread 

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29 minutes ago, Jblizz68 said:

True .. He is in central mid Atlantic region .. I thought he covered this whole region lol.. my bad .. I personally agree with UTS .. traffic to the north and an open gulf comment leaves doors open for many on this forum thread 

Reason I asked is because if my memory serves me right he is from the Virginia area, and is extremely bias towards his area.  Getting a snowstorm in Virginia is tough no matter what month it is.  

I’d have to disagree with him as the last week, week and a half of December look the best they have all season long for a winter storm.  AlThough places in Virginia (where he’s from) might struggle to get snow from these systems doesn’t mean the northeast won’t.   In fact, cranky, whom I have great respect for, expressed great interest in this time frame for one or multiple winter storm signals.  

The gfs, which i consider a very conservative model has been showing multiple storm signals before the new year run after run.  It should be a fun ending to the year.  

Edited by PA road DAWG
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Good points you touched on and i see that bias too and I agree  Cranky is good .. I’m optimistic for some surprises and may the Snow gods gift us with some white gold ..keep the eye candy snow maps coming ! 

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I will just count on rain for the rest of dec and IF it snows I will be surprised and it will be a bonus .

:forumsmiley1092-1: 

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10 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

I will just count on rain for the rest of dec and IF it snows I will be surprised and it will be a bonus .

:forumsmiley1092-1: 

I like that approach lol.  Unless you live on the tug hill or Sierra nevadas 

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Meanwhile.. Farmers Alamanac likes this period as well !! Lol 😂 

1DBEFA7C-CE72-47BB-9E86-0F777A5C9B3F.png

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2 minutes ago, Jblizz68 said:

Meanwhile.. Farmers Alamanac likes this period as well !! Lol 😂 

1DBEFA7C-CE72-47BB-9E86-0F777A5C9B3F.png

It certainly looks like the almanac is going to nail the 16th-19th time frame.

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12z gfs seems to be completely and entirely northern stream driven.  Verbatim it’s a A robust clipper that redevelops while traveling offshore 

Edited by PA road DAWG

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GFS has me getting 7" of snow between Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th!!! 

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