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ohiobuckeye45

December 23rd-25th Storm

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ECM and GFS definitely diverge pretty much from Friday onward. The 12z had 2 systems within this range, but we're nowhere close to being able to split it up yet. Another model needs to come on board first 

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0z GGEM for the clipper on Christmas eve is nice looking as you can see on the snow map. 0z GFS had nothing precip wise but the energy on the vort map looked healthy so I think GFS for some reason is just missing this.

 

gem_asnow24_ncus_21.png

Edited by snowlover2
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The ECM, GFS, and CMC could not be further apart on any of the 2-3 energies in this date range still. 

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ILN morning AFD

 

Model solution spread increases next Tuesday(Christmas Day). ECMWF takes a fast moving weak sfc low through the TN Vly Tuesday, while the GFS builds mid level ridging over the area ahead of Central Plains system. Canadian solution shows a wave (further north) coming through Monday and then keeps WAA pcpn to our north Tuesday. Due to such large model solution spread - confidence is very low at this time. Have limited any mention of pcpn to slight chance or very low chance. Pcpn type would likely change to rain in the south and a mix of rain/snow north.

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right or wrong, the ECM has been flopping like a fish, where as the GFS/FV3 has been pretty consistent on a less volatile period. The difference between the ECM on yesterday's 12z to 00z is suspect for the 25-26 wave

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Just now, ohiobuckeye45 said:

that being said, the ICON FWIW looks more like the CMC 

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but this was the 00z LOL

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00z UK, need temp profiles to make any more assumptions though

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Edited by ohiobuckeye45

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12z Euro big hit on Christmas for OV. I-70 special

 

 

 

 

 

Screenshot_20181219-124439.jpg

Screenshot_20181219-123928.jpg

Screenshot_20181219-123949.jpg

Edited by Grace

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12 minutes ago, Grace said:

12z Euro big hit on Christmas for OV. I-70 special

 

 

 

 

 

Screenshot_20181219-124439.jpg

Screenshot_20181219-123928.jpg

Screenshot_20181219-123949.jpg

Wouldn't hurt to be a touch more south but still decent looking.

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Lock that sucker in...would be back to back White Christmas's here...that hasn't happened in a while.

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As it seems the only model that shows this and that it wasn't shown on the 0Z, I expect it to go away on later runs.  There is always a shot at a Christmas miracle but..

 

image.png.d5965779c18724935fbafaa745c4af36.png

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1 hour ago, Grace said:

12z Euro big hit on Christmas for OV. I-70 special

 

 

 

 

 

Screenshot_20181219-124439.jpg

Screenshot_20181219-123928.jpg

Screenshot_20181219-123949.jpg

It'd be nice but thats probably the best case scenario right there

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Potent wave if it gets going. This will be an interesting couple days ahead.

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18z GFS “trying to catch on”? Too little too late for our area, but interesting to see future runs. 

 

746DA1AB-383C-47D6-B2A6-7224B11495C3.png

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18z FV3-GFS also “tries”....the EURO is on another level tho. 

 

46181792-91E7-4BB7-A6FB-5BA767DFAF00.png

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7 minutes ago, CincySnow said:

18z FV3-GFS also “tries”....the EURO is on another level tho. 

 

46181792-91E7-4BB7-A6FB-5BA767DFAF00.png

Selfishly, we’d split the difference Cincysnow lol. 

But agreed with junior - interesting few days ahead on this. 

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14 hours ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

download (26).png

 

This right here seems like the most likely solution, with snows filling in more so as we get closer along and south of the Ohio River.  

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4 hours ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

UK shows no real signs of the Christmas / night storm, does still have the Christmas eve energy

2.png

 

Yeah, energy is going to stay along and south of the Ohio River.

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