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ClicheVortex2014

Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

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82 today.  Possibly the warmest day of the year tomorrow, forecasted at 86.

Early forecasts for next week are hinting at upper 80s at the end of the week.

Edited by Ahoff

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11 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

82 today.  Possibly the warmest day of the year tomorrow, forecasted at 86.

Early forecasts for next week are hinting at upper 80s at the end of the week.

The pattern looks to improve somewhat in the Great Lakes (Southern Ontario) even, not only for temperatures but for sunshine as well. In fact, this next week, every day looks to have at least some sun. I think the last time we had a week where all seven days had at least some sun was in mid-September.

Not a major flip by any means, but I will definitely take it after this sorry excuse for an early-mid spring period.

Edited by Weatherdude1993
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8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Happy third week of May everybody. Might stop snowing down here eventually.

D6-uDDjV4AAFl2w.png:large

You can keep it, lol!

Seriously though, that's rough.

 

It was officially the warmest day of the year here yesterday, made it to 86.

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We "officially" hit 80 yesterday in DTX, first time this year.  Although it was grey and wet all afternoon.  I would've taken cooler if it was paired up with some sun.  

I don't think I personally hit 80 IMBY in the city's northern burbs (Detroit records temps at the airport in a highly urbanized area, which is usually a solid 3-5 degrees higher than the suburbs).  But for the first time this year it actually felt "humid."

Today's forecast high = 53. :classic_ohmy:

I peeked ahead at my Memorial Day weekend forecast.  Let's just say it "fits" my spring's theme very well.  

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4 hours ago, MotownWX said:

We "officially" hit 80 yesterday in DTX, first time this year.  Although it was grey and wet all afternoon.  I would've taken cooler if it was paired up with some sun.  

I don't think I personally hit 80 IMBY in the city's northern burbs (Detroit records temps at the airport in a highly urbanized area, which is usually a solid 3-5 degrees higher than the suburbs).  But for the first time this year it actually felt "humid."

Today's forecast high = 53. :classic_ohmy:

I peeked ahead at my Memorial Day weekend forecast.  Let's just say it "fits" my spring's theme very well.  

I'm in Canada, but so far next weekend looks sunny and seasonably mild with highs in the low 70s.

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Hope you got the pool up and running along the OV to the coast...more unsettled wx for the plains with a similar setup next week for severe storms.

814analog_off.gif.46e6ee2b83797f20384be15c27cb2504.gif

Edited by Philly_Weather1

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As I've mentioned...snow in NM late in Spring is trouble for severe weather. Lots of snow today, even down to 6,500 feet, almost unheard of this late. Naturally...not a great day to be in the Plains if you are afraid of tornadoes.

D7Ca-aQU0AAi_Qo.jpg

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/texas-oklahoma-tornadoes-extreme-weather/index.html

Storm is consistent timing wise with the huge SOI drop from 5/10-5/11 which tends to put a big storm in the SW in ten days.

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22 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Happy third week of May everybody. Might stop snowing down here eventually.

D6-uDDjV4AAFl2w.png:large

While all the moisture is great...sure hope it doesn't tailend with a big rain event that brings widespread floods. Busy map in the Rockies and east into the Plains

US.png

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Pretty obvious why the Plains have been so wet and cold in retrospect...

D7Dk5m6U8AAcCYa.png

My winter outlook said "locally >170% of normal snow" in New Mexico from Oct-May. That verified - although not quite where I had it. Thought it'd be to the east of the central mountains. You have to understand though, a lot of the Green areas average 100-400 inches per year...so this is ALOT of snow.

D7DlkN8U8AA8XKB.png

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On 5/20/2019 at 12:43 PM, Weatherdude1993 said:

I'm in Canada, but so far next weekend looks sunny and seasonably mild with highs in the low 70s.

Oooh, knock on wood, I'm getting hints that I may pull out a decent weekend as well (it's a 3-dayer down here)...

DTX: "Despite some differences, the Euro solution suggests northern stream troughing will drive high pressure into the area by Sunday and hold its influence into early next week, offering dry and relatively cool conditions for the end of the forecast period."

Temps will likely be 5+ degrees below average, no surprise, but if I look up and see some blue, I'll be happy. 

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Decided to take a minute and try to figure out where we are headed. Pretty straightforward forward to end the month but afterwards can get tricky. 

Out first stop will be the 250mb weekly zonal winds:

Over the last week we have enhanced westerly winds over the central and E. Pacific associated with an extended East Asian Jet. We’ve had anti-cylconic wave breaking events From the W. N Pacific into the Central N. Pacific. And we will see low pressure once again collapse down the W. US coast and into the Rockies.

image-4.png?w=840

Same view but last week and we can see the movement of our pressure systems.

image-6.png?w=840

These are long wave trough movements that evolve over time. And this will contribute to our weather next week. The set-up post-Memorial Day weekend looks similar for the Plains as it did today/yesterday. Prepare for another chance of tornado outbreak.

Further east, things favor a SE ridge.

Taking a look at the 500 hPa weekly anomalies and we can see where things are headed again for the next week.

image-7.png?w=840

After this, it appears that it will be quite likely for that C. Pac ridge to remain in place, save for cycles of waxing and waning. It may be a fixture for a few weeks time.

Most of the models are latching on to the idea and the latest diagnostics from the CPC are keeping things warm along the eastern seaboard.

814analog.off.gif

MJO/OLR

olr.anom.hov.gif

OLR anomalies are fairly weak with some consistency in the dateline convection. Forecasts remain steady regarding the OLR/tropical forcing location.

olr.cfs.eqtr.png

The 200 hPa velocity potentials show movement past the Dateline later in August and de-coupling from the OLR and 850 mb winds over the next several weeks.

chi200.cfs.eqtr.png

So it is no surprise the MJO is forecasted to briefly touch Phase 1 and then weaken, perhaps entering into the “circle of death”, but regardless weak enough that substantial U.S impacts over the next few weeks will be mitigated.

The forecast does call for increased negative velocities and negative OLR in the Indian Ocean beginning late May into the early part of June, so that’s something to keep an eye on. Increased tropical activity in the IO can have downstream consequences to our weather (and the Atlantic tropical basin!). For now, we will leave it be.

What we will be seeing is the NH pattern continue to evolve, allowing for those W. US troughs and E. US ridges with some transient relief in-between.

It seems with the roaring C. Pacific winds and amplified meridional pattern, the C. US will be experience periods of severe weather activity for the next 2 or so weeks, cyclical in nature. E US should stay on the warmer side overall.

My stab at the overall pattern through 1st week of June via caveman drawings

image-8.png?w=840

That’s all for now!

I think week 2 of June breaks the pattern a little bit and we end up warming up out west and cooling in the east. Definitely need to keep an eye on the C. Pacific because that will dictate our pattern in the long term.

Edited by Philly_Weather1

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...nice analysis of the 'long term' goes out to @Philly_Weather1 ...here is the 96hr OPC 500mb forecast...for those still believe in some semblance of a RWWT (my 'main' recurrence rate is 52.7 days) here is an upper air from a while back on my West Coast thread of early April

P_96hr500.thumb.gif.3fabee3806b04800002412fb870b1b89.gif.d17fd77b48e651b2b74133efb2029b82.gifP_96hr500.thumb.gif.c34f10b21e880c1b8ce4e4494c35df3d.gif

...idee just throwing this out there as food for thought...especially since the Pacific jet has not given up on bringing storms into the West Coast, instead of a much more northern based trajectory that is more climatologically favored in late May...i.e. 'California coastal ridging'

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