Time for some premature extrapolation speculation and contemplation - caveman drawing style.
12z Euro used for illustration purpose.
I've tried to put it into one image - all three main ?'s I have to where this may lead. The southwest shortwave, notice it's trying to "come out" across TX panhandle - Euro bias of holding on too long?
Upper MW vortex - which route does it take, it could go either way based on,
The separation between the post Xmas storm vort and the UMW vort -
Thanks - I hope others find it, at least, somewhat worth the contemplation. I'm no "fancy Cranky", but I do try. LOL
From scrolling the ensembles (mostly the NCEP product), to my amateur POV, the post Xmas storm seems to be on the fast track out of town. That "needs" to happen to vacate the N Atl to allow the heights to rise as the "pebble in the pond" UMW shortwave dives into the trough. (if the post Xmas storm tarries, then the UMW vort may "feel" it and move more southeast than south).