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Phased Vort

December 31, 2018 - January 1, 2019 | New Year Storm | BSR Signal

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Can someone please just contact snobal for clarification?

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The GEFS keeps getting “beefier” with each passing run.  I attached the before and after images for this timeframe.  There’s a couple slammers in there.  I’d like to see the eps start to lean this way, but it’s still early.  

 

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1FDFEB98-EECF-4D4E-A199-6A4B9CAD51B5.png

 

 

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F0365CFA-991E-4686-83A0-F44500A0B2FA.png

 

 

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D38B2A13-5A41-4F15-8AAA-075D2AD0E727.png

 

 

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F9E7E052-4DDE-4D9C-B998-2749D17070FF.png

 

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13 hours ago, morgdotz said:

Literally puking rain.... :Thunderstorms:

just stop :forumsmiley1533-1:

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1 hour ago, BigBen89 said:

Grasping for straws, were you?

When you're climbing a steep mountain...sometimes that's all you've got...:dance4:

Liking the potential though...see what it looks like in another 200 hours though.

  • Haha 1

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2 hours ago, BigBen89 said:

Grasping for straws, were you?

gfs_z500_mslp_us_fh300-300.gif

In the PNA region, the 18z is doing the best at day 10.:352nmsp:

cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2PNA.png

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2 hours ago, Miller A said:

Can someone please just contact snobal for clarification?

Done.

snobal.JPG

It's a delayed page topper joke.  Boom! Earned it!!

Edited by Miller A
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0Z EPS has several individual members showing big storms in this period.

 

 

 

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us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018121900_318_505_149_m7.png

 

 

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us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018121900_336_35_149_m49.png

 

 

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us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018121900_342_35_149_m47.png

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018121900_348_505_149_m31.png

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Gfs and fv3 whiffing with this system the past few runs.  GEFS still holding strong though 

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A look at the situation on the 12Z ECMWF 60 hours before it gets into the time frame:

200491211_9-kmECMWFGlobalPressureUnitedStates500hPaHeightAnom228.thumb.png.f5f1c513424192fc3ef9c51d77d81979.png1893875937_9-kmECMWFGlobalPressureUnitedStates500hPaRelVorticity240.thumb.png.99667ff19f36c1eaab60efbb6e39a0ce.png

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41 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

A look at the situation on the 12Z ECMWF 60 hours before it gets into the time frame:

200491211_9-kmECMWFGlobalPressureUnitedStates500hPaHeightAnom228.thumb.png.f5f1c513424192fc3ef9c51d77d81979.png1893875937_9-kmECMWFGlobalPressureUnitedStates500hPaRelVorticity240.thumb.png.99667ff19f36c1eaab60efbb6e39a0ce.png

Definitely no shortage of subtropical moisture, but will there be a s/w to make the positive tilt trough go negative tilt and hopefully bring sufficiently cold air to the party while it's at it.

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The eps is starting to show signs of life.  There’s some big hits on there, and more so than not.  E19 please 

 

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CA9532A9-D67B-4420-8BC6-5CF6BEE5E398.png

 

 

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1BFC47E0-6608-46C9-8D62-76C3A0BA3986.png

 

 

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292BC956-B23D-40C8-A911-917E5C6603E7.png

 

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21 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

The eps is starting to show signs of life.  There’s some big hits on there, and more so than not.  E19 please 

CA9532A9-D67B-4420-8BC6-5CF6BEE5E398.png

1BFC47E0-6608-46C9-8D62-76C3A0BA3986.png

292BC956-B23D-40C8-A911-917E5C6603E7.png

Member 29 also shows a big storm.

 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018121912_288_35_149_m29.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018121912_294_485_215_m29.png

Edited by paletitsnow63

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The gfs seems to want to shear this out and slides the energy SE of the mid Atlantic 

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37 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

The gfs seems to want to shear this out and slides the energy SE of the mid Atlantic 

As for the FV3, it seems the 18Z run will produce a hit of some kind from late Jan 1st into Jan 2nd.

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44 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

As for the FV3, it seems the 18Z run will produce a hit of some kind from late Jan 1st into Jan 2nd.

Yea, it’s still there but that big bruiser of a storm it was once showing seems to have disipated.   

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18z GEFS Not as juicy as the few previous runs but still not bad.  Here’s the before and after this timeframe for comparisons sake. 

 

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E7E84FC2-915E-4888-8979-210E15EF94C7.png

 

 

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62E7B569-78D9-452C-9A7B-44FFB7E75C45.png

 

 

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5FDA4165-55B1-4A46-A62D-9F74599D0A89.png

 

 

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D75E7400-8653-4D1E-8299-6363F335F751.png

 

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00z GEFS look even better yet.   Some members showing robust systems on or few days after New Years. Before and after timeframe pics

 

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4D07081A-F9E8-40E5-BF0F-957153F3F4D5.png

 

 

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14E889DD-F2ED-4352-8123-54A197BDE270.png

 

 

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66C1F6F2-3D5C-4CB1-AAB4-0ED033575EF0.png

 

 

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E104A6B9-890B-4118-9B43-97EC5B74C875.png

 

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Eps finally starting to latch onto the storm idea.  

17AC7F7D-1F5D-4702-9576-8BB54BEB89A6.png

B1282A76-54A5-4DAA-A439-C0261DB93016.png

33CC1EEA-930D-4CC3-88DC-7F08655FDEA5.png

2D33C3AA-D0A5-4E38-9943-1FD3C8667CDD.png

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41 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Eps finally starting to latch onto the storm idea.  

17AC7F7D-1F5D-4702-9576-8BB54BEB89A6.png

B1282A76-54A5-4DAA-A439-C0261DB93016.png

33CC1EEA-930D-4CC3-88DC-7F08655FDEA5.png

2D33C3AA-D0A5-4E38-9943-1FD3C8667CDD.png

I must confess I´m even more intrigued now, with so many ensemble members showing hits, especially EPS ones, this far out.

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00Z GFS has a hit.

06z GFS has the sheared out solution.

00Z FV3 has a hit.

00Z ECMWF not in range.

 

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17 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

00Z GFS has a hit.

06z GFS has the sheared out solution.

00Z FV3 has a hit.

00Z ECMWF not in range.

 

6z FV-XXX is up to it's game

12/20 6z GFS FV-3

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4 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

6z FV-XXX is up to it's game

12/20 6z GFS FV-3

:classic_love:

Is it ok to love XXX solutions ? Please...

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What is fascinating is that this upcoming January 2019, the FV-XXX, will become operational, or the upgrade will occur.

So, black market XXX stuff , will become legal XXX stuff.

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