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Phased Vort

December 31, 2018 - January 1, 2019 | New Year Storm | BSR Signal

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29 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

6z FV-XXX is up to it's game

12/20 6z GFS FV-3

 

23 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

Exactly were we want to be 300 hours out :classic_sleep:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_50.png

06Z FV-XXX:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh288-312.gif.d23bb753b39f8bc3d751e328a1fadf44.gif

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1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

I must confess I´m even more intrigued now, with so many ensemble members showing hits, especially EPS ones, this far out.

Exactly and I agree.  I was waiting for the EPS to jump on board.  Glad it finally did.   After all it is the best model.  

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1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

:classic_love:

Is it ok to love XXX solutions ? Please...

You just need to recognize that it's not real life...it's just fantasy....:classic_laugh:

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1 minute ago, telejunkie said:

You just need to recognize that it's not real life...it's just fantasy....:classic_laugh:

caught in a landslide no escape from reality, open your eyes, look up to the sky and see....:FlagWave:

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12 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

caught in a landslide no escape from reality, open your eyes, look up to the sky and see....:FlagWave:

 

ms-xsiqdQ.gif

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52 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

You just need to recognize that it's not real life...it's just fantasy....:classic_laugh:

As far from reality as winning the lottery. :classic_laugh:

50 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

caught in a landslide no escape from reality, open your eyes, look up to the sky and see....:FlagWave:

I like that! Please leave some of these lines from time to time.

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29 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

As far from reality as winning the lottery. :classic_laugh:

I like that! Please leave some of these lines from time to time.

Just like MDBR and his comedic relief, it's all in the setup my friend. Tele lobbed a softball! 

BTW..I'm not sure if this is the one or not but one of these (technically the last one did, just south), is going to land a major punch. It's all in the timing with the southern stream doing it's thing. There is so much moisture out there and when the northern stream finally times it right, it's going to be awesome! 

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Well hello there gfs !   😀

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1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

Well hello there gfs !   😀

What happened?

 

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8 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

What happened?

 

Brought the New Years storm back to life.  Let’s see what the fv3 and GEFS has to say.....

31AF22FE-BA16-4277-9BE0-48C72B6D77E5.gif

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2 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Brought the New Years storm back to life.  Let’s see what the fv3 and GEFS has to say.....

31AF22FE-BA16-4277-9BE0-48C72B6D77E5.gif

 

If we could talk to these weather models, I would tell this 12Z GFS run: " Just keep repeating this outcome, man" :classic_laugh:

 

But now this one came in a day earlier.:classic_sleep:

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XXX slower and misses the phase

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

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Ahhh...

The timing...

Once upon a time, there was timing... :classic_laugh:

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GEFS still showing a nice hit 

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The eps is loaded with some nice big direct hits.  The new year time frame is getting more interesting By the run.  The euro control is almost near identical to the gfs New Years storm with a coastal transfer idea.   I attached the control, eps mean and all indy runs. Most of the snow falls near new years for those non favorable areas (outside the snow belts)

 

Spoiler

6BD5EA96-1E6E-41E2-9E6C-CC65A3995176.png

 

 

Spoiler

40112DD7-7FB3-475D-A3B2-B939998980B6.png

 

 

Spoiler

800BA574-BC36-4428-974E-A6CD88B5B056.png

 

 

Spoiler

50C486C2-CD0F-4E4B-99A6-AFD20DE7FE44.png

 

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1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

The eps is loaded with some nice big direct hits.  The new year time frame is getting more interesting By the run.  The euro control is almost near identical to the gfs New Years storm with a coastal transfer idea.   I attached the control, eps mean and all indy runs. Most of the snow falls near new years for those non favorable areas (outside the snow belts)

6BD5EA96-1E6E-41E2-9E6C-CC65A3995176.png

40112DD7-7FB3-475D-A3B2-B939998980B6.png

800BA574-BC36-4428-974E-A6CD88B5B056.png

50C486C2-CD0F-4E4B-99A6-AFD20DE7FE44.png

I'd like a #30 and a #48 a couple days later. :)The_Wish_Casting_Monkey

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2 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Time for some premature extrapolation speculation and contemplation - caveman drawing style. 

12z Euro used for illustration purpose.

I've tried to put it into one image - all three main ?'s I have to where this may lead. The southwest shortwave, notice it's trying to "come out" across TX panhandle - Euro bias of holding on too long? 

Upper MW vortex - which route does it take, it could go either way based on,

The separation between the post Xmas storm vort and the UMW vort - if enough separation, heights can rise as UMW shortwave would tend to maintain within the developing trough. That would also depend on the SW vort and the timing and track it takes across the deep south (gathering another boat load of GOM moisture as it does so). Adding that if the UMW vort does dive more south than southeast, its absence would allow decent High Pressure in it's absence - available to further drive the 850 line even further S. 

These 3 things - not much more ATTM, have me pouring over various ensemble products to see if there's an indicator of any "clear winner" solution. 

untitled.thumb.png.e54393347aed9d0b1623f5f22f8c8da6.png

 

Gosh,  I love this!!!

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18z GFS actually comes in along those lines

gfs_z500_vort_namer_43.png.bcb66e4df831f4ec5379f5a9cf860d8d.png

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3 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

18z GFS actually comes in along those lines

gfs_z500_vort_namer_43.png.bcb66e4df831f4ec5379f5a9cf860d8d.png

It's too quick with the southern energy, but still delivers a punch

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GFS has a pretty large and powerful snowstorm here... 8-12" if the current predictions hold true. 

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Yea 18z GFS is a little late with the phase. Idea is still there, all I care about at this point still.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

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3 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

Yea 18z GFS is a little late with the phase. Idea is still there, all I care about at this point still.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

The result

Spoiler

Capture.thumb.PNG.8d196ac808f126d77005bce0ac26ab2c.PNG

 

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