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snowlover2

Dec. 31-Jan.2 Potential Winter Storm

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23 hours ago, Mulaman984 said:

Chris Bailey, a met out of KY, put this on his daily blog re the euro and this system: 

This setup is going to be tough on the models, especially the European. All this energy ejecting from the southwest plays right into the biggest flaw of the model. It has a tough time with energy coming from the southwestern part of the US. It will likely show some big time swings.

 

Definitely has always been a Euro model issue; however, I was thinking they had some updates to deal with that issue.

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3 hours ago, chicagosnow said:

12z GFS laughs in our faces. 

18z is suppressed and no precip for anyone.

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How are the ensemble GEFS/EPS handling this?

Edited by Mulaman984

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Man is this thing flopping like a fish out of water on the models.

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I'm just waiting for the November cycle to come back around. I have had more snow than last year before December ever got here. On one hand, had likely one of the snowiest Autumns ever, on the other Winter isn't starting out well. Although technically we are less than a week into "Winter".

Would absolutely suck to have more snow than last year without snow in D/J/F/M. Not a fan of snow in April but it was our snowiest month last year.

 

So back loaded followed by front loaded has to mean a normal winter in 19/20 right? :weather:

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3 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

I'm just waiting for the November cycle to come back around. I have had more snow than last year before December ever got here. On one hand, had likely one of the snowiest Autumns ever, on the other Winter isn't starting out well. Although technically we are less than a week into "Winter".

Would absolutely suck to have more snow than last year without snow in D/J/F/M. Not a fan of snow in April but it was our snowiest month last year.

 

So back loaded followed by front loaded has to mean a normal winter in 19/20 right? :weather:

One can hope!

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1 minute ago, snowlover2 said:

Both 0z GFS and GGEM are basically complete whiffs on this one too.

I don't think I have ever seen the GFS look this consistently bad for so long. Not meaning because it's wrong but because it is consistently showing little to nothing for so long like it has been...

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46 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

I'm open to a clipper pattern knowing everything would be <=1-3" at this point 

sfav2_CONUS_2018093012_to_2018122512.png

That map is so sad yet so accurate. And it looks like the last 5 winters around here. Winter has been boring and hasn’t yielded a storm of 6+ in so many years I can’t even remember. I forgot what snow covering my shoes looks like at this point 😂😂😂

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48 minutes ago, CIWeather said:

I don't think I have ever seen the GFS look this consistently bad for so long. Not meaning because it's wrong but because it is consistently showing little to nothing for so long like it has been...

Its been like three runs of 384 hours of nothing haha. I can’t believe it. 

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1 minute ago, MidMichiganWX said:

Its been like three runs of 384 hours of nothing haha. I can’t believe it. 

At least 3.  That's what I'm saying. I don't think I have ever seen the GFS consistently show nothing like it has for so long, regardless of whether it's right or not.

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Just now, MidMichiganWX said:

Its been like three runs of 384 hours of nothing haha. I can’t believe it. 

Don't worry that pattern change is coming mid January and everything will be better. Yes..yes....it will be much better then.😏

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3 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Don't worry that pattern change is coming mid January and everything will be better. Yes..yes....it will be much better then.😏

Let's hope. I think we're all in the "we'll believe it when we see it" mindset lol

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Just my 2 cents worth and not trying to be a curmudgeon. A pattern change may occur but hoping/expecting over the long haul  significant snow events anywhere outside of lake effect areas and mountainous terrain is an exercise in disappointment. Maybe New England should also be included as a region that frequently receives big storms. But the MW and OV need lots of components to all fall into place just right to have a heavy snow event. And by event I mean>"4. ORD averages 36", Columbus say 26" and most years you nickle and dime your way to those averages with perhaps a big event or two the whole season. Most winters have long periods of nothing followed by brief periods of pattern favorability that produce bursts of snow. The years where an area sets up with a favorable track and sustained cold air are those ones we remember fondly.ie late 70s,2013-2014. My area 2007-08. But they are few and far between. So I guess I would say lower those expectations because most winters when analyzed really aren't that good. We tend to focus on those really good winters to set expectations. 

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5 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Just my 2 cents worth and not trying to be a curmudgeon. A pattern change may occur but hoping/expecting over the long haul  significant snow events anywhere outside of lake effect areas and mountainous terrain is an exercise in disappointment. Maybe New England should also be included as a region that frequently receives big storms. But the MW and OV need lots of components to all fall into place just right to have a heavy snow event. And by event I mean>"4. ORD averages 36", Columbus say 26" and most years you nickle and dime your way to those averages with perhaps a big event or two the whole season. Most winters have long periods of nothing followed by brief periods of pattern favorability that produce bursts of snow. The years where an area sets up with a favorable track and sustained cold air are those ones we remember fondly.ie late 70s,2013-2014. My area 2007-08. But they are few and far between. So I guess I would say lower those expectations because most winters when analyzed really aren't that good. We tend to focus on those really good winters to set expectations. 

I hear you. Totally agree too. 

With that said, at this rate we won’t even nickel and dime our way to our average. We’re going into January with about 6” of total snowfall and we average 41” here. It’s gonna take a lot to get anywhere near that. 

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The 0Z Euro was even worse for this region. Here's hoping for a day of improvements.. even if it's a Clipper Train. All aboard, I say.

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1 hour ago, Mulaman984 said:

LOL. Recommend you pick up some other hobbies man, if you’re this bored. 

I thought it was taboo to mix religion and weather.....

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19 hours ago, Grace said:

 

Definitely has always been a Euro model issue; however, I was thinking they had some updates to deal with that issue.

I'm a big follower of Bailey's blog, but he likes to hype "the coming winter weather pattern" too much. His favorite term is "next week." Hoping he's right one of these days.

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Still looks like something could happen around this timeframe. 

There are two waves showing up; just a matter of getting the norther and southern energy to phase. 

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