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UTSwiinii

December 30, 2018 | Minor Winter Storm

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22 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

The problem is that it wasn't that warm, but there was no snow, and when the ample precipitation did come, it was just warm enough to rain for most of us.  That's just as bad in my opinion.

I think we'll just continue to see storms come in a bring warmer air with them.  Just looks like that is the pattern that we've seen.  Cold, then a system from the South pushes warm in and brings rain.

I would advise you don’t read the winter long range forecast discussion. A zonal flow for the foreseeable future is what’s being discussed. Good Grief.

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Well this is a depressing thread. Dont let the weather get you down folks! 

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15 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Well this is a depressing thread. Dont let the weather get you down folks! 

Reason for hope....and zonal flow may be a good thing at this point as the Pacific jet driving storms into the SW and cranking heights to the east has been what's delivering the warm surges. Maybe not big storms, but at least not washout storms...but once we get this upcoming system out of the way, hopefully we'll see some movement towards a consensus on the models. Not going to be a big system, but could deliver a nice white strip.

4indices.png

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Folks, please let's stay on topic. 

We almost have two pages of off topic posts all related to the winter blues...

We should not turn storm threads to winter is bad or over threads.

No more, guys. Please.

Thanks.

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22 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Well this is a depressing thread. Dont let the weather get you down folks! 

For some reason, I always tend to be under the weather but not always sick. :aqua:   

I'm looking at the Navy for clues as to whether there might be something there and it's not pretty. The FV3 is an outlier right now. MJO will be in 5/6 when this storm comes around as well. The Jan. 7 timeframe has my attention as far as EC snow. 

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9 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

A little love from the GFS-FV3

2018_12_26_10_49_08_pivotalweather_GFS_FV3_Total_Accumulated_Snowfall_Kuchera_for_Mon_2018_12_.png

On the fringe, but I'll take it an run.......:ok-access:

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Cranky's Thoughts......

cranky 1.jpg

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Big improvement on the 12z GFS

Screen Shot 2018-12-26 at 11.11.27 AM.png

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23 minutes ago, geeter1 said:

Cranky's Thoughts......

cranky 1.jpg

Looks about right by our local forecast for Camden Delaware and will be interesting to see if the area by Ft. Meade Maryland gets a mix as the forecast is for rain.

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1 hour ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Well this is a depressing thread. Dont let the weather get you down folks! 

Well, this IS sad......we broke MDBR.  When HE cannot even make a joke...

SAD.jpg.f5423d7e9d03e1900904442576ccd220.jpg

 

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Even Holly not too thrilled.....

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
900 AM EST Wed Dec 26 2018
Sunday...A weak system will pass south of the area with chc pops
retained from previous fcst. The system is not being haded well
with the latest runs minimizing impacts over the area. It may
end up staying well south, with lower pops in future fcsts.
Temperatures will be near normal.

Mt Holly AFD

Edited by Miller A

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Don't fret. XXX here to save the day

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

fv3p_asnow_neus_21.png

Edited by PA Snow 84
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1 hour ago, geeter1 said:

Cranky's Thoughts......

cranky 1.jpg

Not to nitpick but its actually the Weather Prediction Center's thoughts....not Cranky's.

 

image.png.c3850325a93abbb63ac5459d8117d7f7.png

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FV3-GFS only one that is really showing this. 

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_21.png

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Fair warning - future posts, unless discussing this potential, are being hidden. Repeat by same members and those will be deleted and warnings issued.

Stay on topic in storm threads, please. Thanks

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2 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

Folks, please let's stay on topic. 

We almost have two pages of off topic posts all related to the winter blues...

We should not turn storm threads to winter is bad or over threads.

No more, guys. Please.

Thanks.

I had not seen you already posted this Carlos. But - DITTO!

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10 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

I had not seen you already posted this Carlos. But - DITTO!

No problem, Bill. 

 

And, will the FV-XXX score a coup, and make posters and lurkers happy ?

It would be a big win for it, as of Jan 2019, it becomes fully operational and official. 

Without a doubt it has been the one more consistent of all. But consistency is not a direct correlation to a correct solution.

The ECMWF, which I consider above all other models and respect, when making posts, decisions and threads, has been pretty iffy with this event and the following one.

Still, let's give it another chance as the 12Z comes out. If it has nothing, then the FV-XXX could be dizzy or with its judgment clouded.

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26 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Fair warning - future posts, unless discussing this potential, are being hidden. Repeat by same members and those will be deleted and warnings issued.

Stay on topic in storm threads, please. Thanks

For the most part I believe everything is on point within this discussion about the storm, pattern etc.  Everyone has their own subjective views and opinions on things guarded by their first amendment right , that is all

Edited by PA road DAWG
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Going to post this again.........why you ask.............because why not, it shows what we want. Right now all these models are flip flopping like the pancakes I had for breakfast. Complicated pattern we are in. Sit back and don't live and die by all the model runs. 

So pretty..............

 

FV3 12z 122618.PNG

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3 minutes ago, plowxpress said:

Going to post this again.........why you ask.............because why not, it shows what we want. Right now all these models are flip flopping like the pancakes I had for breakfast. Complicated pattern we are in. Sit back and don't live and die by all the model runs. 

So pretty..............

 

FV3 12z 122618.PNG

Shows what pa, nyc, li want... not what you want to see if you like snow south of pa or central Jersey based on this run.  Let's get the cutter out of the way and see where we are

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Well.... It has the storm...and..it has the transfer idea. Lets see how they come together. I think the models are not that far off each other with this. Lets see in the next few days.

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Euro has some NADS on the 12z run. Doesn't amount to much and kind of resembles GFS from 4 or 5 runs ago. 

Spoiler

Euronads.PNG.754acd0dba3fdcae7f7d07b4ad597483.PNG

In fact, I'm not even sure it qualifies as NADS (nickel and dime snow) - more like One Cent piece. :352nmsp:

infact.thumb.PNG.77db79513cc494649bfa4002b0c6ed8c.PNG

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