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UTSwiinii

December 30, 2018 | Minor Winter Storm

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Sunday into Monday, some light rain or snow could skirt south- central PA, as a weak wave of low pressure pushes across the southeastern states. Another shot of rain could follow for later Monday night into Tuesday, as there are model suggestions that a storm system again lifts to our west through the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes regions.

CTP is not enthused either - don't read the quoted if you love winter. 

Spoiler

Although colder air should build in towards the middle of next week, truly arctic air is not in sight at this point.

 

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A weak low pressure system will slide by to the south of the region
Saturday night into Sunday. Timing with this system will be
especially important, as temperatures will be marginally supportive
for some wintry precipitation early Sunday morning, thanks to cold
high pressure to the north. Precipitation should change to all rain
again by the afternoon. This system should slide east of the region
on Sunday night. High temperatures will only reach the low 40s
Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday are much more uncertain. The European brings dry
weather to the region on Monday, with a more substantial low
pressure tracking to our west on Monday night into Tuesday. However,
the GFS depicts a couple of weaker systems sliding through. With
temperatures cool enough for some wintry precipitation during the
overnight periods, have left generic "chance of rain or snow"
through this period, as timing will play a key role in what
precipitation type falls. High temperatures again in the mid 40s on
Monday, with temperatures on Tuesday a bit more uncertain.

Sterling say much ado  about nothing.

 

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A quiet Bernie Rayno is never a good sign....

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2 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

A quiet Bernie Rayno is never a good sign....

Ahh, the trusty BSR (Bernie Silence Rule)

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3 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

A quiet Bernie Rayno is never a good sign....

Still early for Bernie.... Let's see how he and the models play out over the next few days before giving up. Although I see PARD quickly falling into his old negative patterns lol (rightfully so with this winter so far)... Don't fall off the wagon PARD, although I think you may already have :classic_laugh:.... Here's to hoping for the FV3 type solutions. 

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0z ICON caved...

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh90_trend.gif.856ffa6143e8c86ef07068e92535d4b5.gif

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4 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

A quiet Bernie Rayno is never a good sign....

No "windshield wiper" propaganda for a winter is fine by me

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24 minutes ago, Solstice said:

0z ICON caved...

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh90_trend.gif.856ffa6143e8c86ef07068e92535d4b5.gif

Interesting. 

ICON is acknowledging the FV-XXX.

Any others to follow?

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2 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Interesting. 

ICON is acknowledging the FV-XXX.

Any others to follow?

Then comes the 00Z ICON and says that the 18Z run is nuts.

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1 hour ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Still early for Bernie.... Let's see how he and the models play out over the next few days before giving up. Although I see PARD quickly falling into his old negative patterns lol (rightfully so with this winter so far)... Don't fall off the wagon PARD, although I think you may already have :classic_laugh:.... Here's to hoping for the FV3 type solutions. 

Yea this gfs run definitely has me bailing off the wagon.  SE ridge crushing these storms NW of us 

Edited by PA road DAWG

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7 hours ago, wtkidz said:

Sterling say much ado  about nothing.

 

I think our best shots at serious snow for Fredvegas are two weeks into January and after, as per a normal winter. Consider anything before then bonus bucks.

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12/27 FV3-XXX 00Z continues to show some wintry precip around NY/Conn/Ma, Not as widespread.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh96-114.gif.ca4550da96b99aae5294233451e4bf25.gif

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?

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Capture.PNG.5b2e9debd805de9d6bf57067892c0acd.PNG

:classic_laugh:

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7 hours ago, risingriver said:

I think our best shots at serious snow for Fredvegas are two weeks into January and after, as per a normal winter. Consider anything before then bonus bucks.

Maybe in Virginia but definitely not here upstate (NY)... 

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25 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Wpc, as per Cranky..... 

IMG_20181227_074914.jpg

Believe that's yesterdays news

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44 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

Believe that's yesterdays news

if yesterdays news is better then todays I take it :classic_rolleyes:

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24 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

if yesterdays news is better then todays I take it :classic_rolleyes:

I had the same sentiments when I joined here and saw @jdrenken as a moderator, "meet the new boss.....same as the boss"

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2 hours ago, KENNYP2339 said:

I had the same sentiments when I joined here and saw @jdrenken as a moderator, "meet the new boss.....same as the boss"

Who else is going to keep this motley crew in line? The_Wish_Casting_Monkey

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7 minutes ago, Anthonyweather said:

It’s been frustrating thus far. Can’t even get a fantasy storm to last more then one run. 

I thought about that this morning.  GFS (especially) hasn't been teasing with LR storms recently.....

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If this pattern keeps up, I will really start correlating early snows with snowless winters... Oct 2011, Nov 2012....Nov 2018?....

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4 minutes ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

Euro is not that far off for the lakes region, maybe 50 miles east and we see some wintry..

 

download (16).png

download (17).png

my area needs that transfer to occur a little earlier — further south....

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