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Phased Vort

January 4-6, 2019 | Winter Storm | Mid-Atlantic

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FV-XXX, has, at first glance, a decent solution for snows in Virginia, and possibly DC.

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12z euro too warm.

e168.thumb.png.ec09507c3b569694f1df0558163aa1ca.png

e180.thumb.png.8b829d59ab97d0a7525d76d1d30de405.png

e186.thumb.png.db4113cb1742eea8d753e764c4c5fd78.png

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17 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

12z euro too warm.

e168.thumb.png.ec09507c3b569694f1df0558163aa1ca.png

e180.thumb.png.8b829d59ab97d0a7525d76d1d30de405.png

e186.thumb.png.db4113cb1742eea8d753e764c4c5fd78.png

Agree, our weather forecast has rain New Year eve and Thursday and Friday. Stays warm and rainy I will have to get the mower ready to cut the grass.😁

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Very similar to the 12/19-20 event.  Gorgeous looking trough and ULL feature in a near ideal location.  HOWEVER, there’s zero northern steam/cold air interaction, thus resulting in a warm and rainy scenario.  Not saying this will be the final outcome, but This winter has been absolutely putrid to watch unfold.  I can imagine everyone’s patience is wearing a little thin given that every time we get some sort of system it’s been rain and only rain.  Hopefully our patience rewards us.  

05BB21D8-D92C-4826-9483-CB8E6A6151CC.png

4AFF9FFF-D286-4F31-9FE1-F0E40F363D7A.png

Edited by PA road DAWG
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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

12z euro too warm.

e168.thumb.png.ec09507c3b569694f1df0558163aa1ca.png

e180.thumb.png.8b829d59ab97d0a7525d76d1d30de405.png

e186.thumb.png.db4113cb1742eea8d753e764c4c5fd78.png

Poor ski resorts. Such a big ski week and mostly rain. 

I know off topic, but feel for those folks. 

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2 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

FV-XXX, has, at first glance, a decent solution for snows in Virginia, and possibly DC.

Looks good. But certainly does not fit the current pattern. 

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2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

12z euro too warm.

e168.thumb.png.ec09507c3b569694f1df0558163aa1ca.png

e180.thumb.png.8b829d59ab97d0a7525d76d1d30de405.png

e186.thumb.png.db4113cb1742eea8d753e764c4c5fd78.png

:classic_blink: Here i thought it would be a huge hit for New England...a 979 mb SLP over Ellsworth, ME at hr192. Came on here to see some candy....what's this crap about too warm!?  This image looks like a snow bomb....guess I need to crawl back into fetal-position and resume sucking thumb until I see something good...

USA_HGT_500mb_192.gif

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40 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

:classic_blink: Here i thought it would be a huge hit for New England...a 979 mb SLP over Ellsworth, ME at hr192. Came on here to see some candy....what's this crap about too warm!?  This image looks like a snow bomb....guess I need to crawl back into fetal-position and resume sucking thumb until I see something good...

 

The 552 thickness runs through the center of the 980mb low...in January...over Maine. :hmm:

Af1SLFY.png

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Compared to the NAVGEM which has the 540 thickness running through the center, which is futher west (on the 0z)

vrI8QlH.png

Now the 12z NAVGEM bumped over to that low by Cape Cod.

PllJoa0.png

But the NAVGEM takes it further into Euro territory with the 558(?) thickness running through the center.

 

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2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Compared to the NAVGEM which has the 540 thickness running through the center, which is futher west (on the 0z)

vrI8QlH.png

Now the 12z NAVGEM bumped over to that low by Cape Cod.

PllJoa0.png

But the NAVGEM takes it further into Euro territory with the 558(?) thickness running through the center.

 

Not having truly cold air to even scour out, just too much warmth coming in from the STJ aspect of our vort packets. Add the Atl influence and the die is cast. Until/unless any one of these systems has a High to the northwest, instead of an ULL, winter weather will be "scattered" and confined to only the regions where micro climate can assist to make it "just cold enough". 

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10 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

The 552 thickness runs through the center of the 980mb low...in January...over Maine. :hmm:

Af1SLFY.png

That might be the thing are for the time being. If long range discussion doesn’t see anything in the horizon and any cold doesn’t show up till late January being of February. Then it might be to late and if a strong El Niño shows up who knows how the future winters will be

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4 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Not having truly cold air to even scour out, just too much warmth coming in from the STJ aspect of our vort packets. Add the Atl influence and the die is cast. Until/unless any one of these systems has a High to the northwest, instead of an ULL, winter weather will be "scattered" and confined to only the regions where micro climate can assist to make it "just cold enough". 

Very well put.

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What is funny, is that the FV-XXX gets better and better with each run.

18Z is even better.

If it had more support, we all would be saying that it´s trending better and better.

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1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

What is funny, is that the FV-XXX gets better and better with each run.

18Z is even better.

If it had more support, we all would be saying that it´s trending better and better.

 

willy-wonka-the-suspense-is-terrible.gif

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2 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

What is funny, is that the FV-XXX gets better and better with each run.

18Z is even better.

If it had more support, we all would be saying that it´s trending better and better.

download.png.1a2950ec2d8c1adc0f4952abd049c3c6.png

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2 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

What is funny, is that the FV-XXX gets better and better with each run.

18Z is even better.

If it had more support, we all would be saying that it´s trending better and better.

I'm actually quite surprised that the 18z came around as well as it did.  Interesting.  Colder solution is possible being this far out.  They always say warm ups can lead to big storms.  If it can crank enough we all know what that means :)

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GFS FV3  18z eye candy for some 

CC708385-37EB-4E3F-BF51-0B18D46B8932.png

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Locally Mets saying 40 and more rain ️ 

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18 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

Locally Mets saying 40 and more rain ️ 

Euro they are Hugging I see.   Wise they are.  Right, they most likely will be.   

7D3AC48C-6982-45EA-B10C-3BBC56B0F13E.jpeg

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GYX

Quote

Eventually though, the cold air does win out with a cold frontal
passage late Tuesday bringing an end to the synoptic-scale
precipitation. Only expecting snow showers as the front moves
through, with cold air arriving on its heels. Gusty NW winds
will follow for a colder midweek. Late in the week, a couple
short waves attempt to phase over the East Coast. This system
will have to be watched as it nears as it has the potential to
be strong.

 

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9 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Euro they are Hugging I see.   Wise they are.  Right, they most likely will be.   

7D3AC48C-6982-45EA-B10C-3BBC56B0F13E.jpeg

Been saving this one for a while, haven't you? 

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I see no one checked the Canadian this morning.  Don't get too excited.  Here's the "trend" - more like me driving a ball off a tee.  One out of six times its goes where I want it to.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh144_trend.gif.96e687b4c39403c0a681d1a252ce0602.gif

 

Edited by StretchCT

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Lots of waffling with temps, warm solution, cold solution, warm/cold solution? 

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