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junior

Jan 2nd - 3rd, 2019 | Winter Storm

Staff Recommended Posts

20 minutes ago, Grace said:

0z UKMET 

 

Screenshot_20181228-232331.jpg

 

:classic_blink:

Screenshot_20181228-233419.jpg

 

This is probably a preview of something similar from EURO

Edited by Grace
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18z EURO SLP locations

 

Screenshot_20181228-234355.jpg

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18z NAVGEM...no 0z yet

 

Screenshot_20181228-234935.jpg

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11 minutes ago, Grace said:

18z EURO SLP locations

 

Screenshot_20181228-234355.jpg

Looks good 

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Remember Euro products have a 6z & 18z run now. Models are obvioisly in correction mode which is why I'm posting more...just to see the differences. 

6z EPS SLP members

 

Screenshot_20181229-073916_Chrome.jpg

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Without seeing FV3-GFS yet, the other 12z data looking pretty crappy. Follow ensemble means & note trends to keep from huge emotional swings from run to run on OP.

I do take note of 12z UKMET. Doesn't look quiet as strong as 0z & is a little further east but I post because, like I predicted last night upon seeing it's 0z that EURO would follow with something generally similar (as in more amped) & it did a smudge further east. So, im predicting 12z Euro will still have a more amped solution with snow being on west side. We'll see

 

 

Screenshot_20181229-105049.jpg

Screenshot_20181229-110034.jpg

Edited by Grace
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12z GEFS ENSEMBLES. Of course, which I could show at different timeframes rather than all at once. But the point is BIG spread

 

Screenshot_20181229-112238_Chrome.jpg

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12Z euro Low track seems good (I could be way off :)). but can’t tell precip

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Thanks for the maps - I think we posted exact same time lol 

Just now, snowlover2 said:

12z Euro appears very interesting.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

ecmwf_T850_us_7.png

😂 

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3 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

12Z euro Low track seems good (I could be way off :)). but can’t tell precip

Precip maps on weather.us won't load for several more minutes but it should be interesting. Went from western AL to extreme west NY with a 20mb drop in 24 hours. Obviously a better phase.

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12z Euro not all that different in the beginning but does better when it gets east & gives parts of Ohio some love.

Remember, patience. Check means for trends. Focus on details Monday night 0z & Tues 12z. 

Good luck!

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9 minutes ago, Grace said:

Screenshot_20181229-124600_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181229-124631_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181229-124702_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181229-124733_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181229-124834_Chrome.jpg

Wasn't as good as I hoped but a step in the right direction.

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Last time we were in this exact position with the GFS vs the ECM/UK the gfs prevailed big time and that was only 2 weeks ago so until proven otherwise it's hard to go with the ECM

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I agree with OB, the Euro has been crapping the bed lately and it doesn't do well with cutoffs in the deep sw, however almost every system we've seen thus far has cutoff and amplified so I'm not sure what to believe. Progressive GFS or ampy Euro? The ensembles for both models support their respective OP run.

Edited by junior

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4 hours ago, Grace said:

12z Euro not all that different in the beginning but does better when it gets east & gives parts of Ohio some love.

Remember, patience. Check means for trends. Focus on details Monday night 0z & Tues 12z. 

Good luck!

This one does have some potential.

Cranky (and you) again reminds us, models are chaotic with this split flow until 2 or 3 days out.

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