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SNOWBOB11

December 31st-January 2nd Winter Storm

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Looks like there is potential for a storm system around this time. It should be affecting S ON on east and there should be snow ice and rain. What precipitation and where it falls is still to be seen so it needs to be watched closely.

12z euro432CACE8-7858-42DE-B648-94D6C8BC79BB.thumb.png.2aa57798d7b44bacb297831d97705ef8.png

5E0E4227-0B17-48E3-B1BF-C40EF27B44FA.thumb.png.95c8eb8824d6c3fde226e8538aec6162.png

00z GFSEF6038B4-A9CE-46D9-B122-5A5026A5B204.png.dec8c4e35dc80cc5bb8415543deeac9a.png

00z GEM51060488-DFD5-48F7-A435-A702C59882B1.png.8a7621eed8c1b3bdcc5e3257000b22d4.png

Edited by SNOWBOB11

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For the Quebec-Windsor Corridor, the GFS text isn't too hopeful for actual accumulations in southern Ontario sites. The snowfall is either mixed with rain and/or during too-warm temps for accumulation. Areas futher out in the burbs, away from city heat islands might stand a chance. Montreal and Quebec have the best conditions for actual accumulations.

Quote

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
 CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 28DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   90 12/31 18Z   36     26    0.00         36     29    0.0            
   93 12/31 21Z   33     28    0.05 -SN     36     33    0.3  0.05    0.3
   96 01/01 00Z   33     32    0.16 -RA     36     33    0.0  0.21      
   99 01/01 03Z   33     33    0.02 -RA     34     33    0.0  0.23      
  102 01/01 06Z   32     32    0.02 -RA     34     32    0.0  0.25      
  105 01/01 09Z   32     31    0.00 -RA     32     32    0.0            
  108 01/01 12Z   32     32    0.00         32     32    0.0            
  111 01/01 15Z   33     32    0.00         33     32    0.0            
  114 01/01 18Z   33     32    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.01      
  117 01/01 21Z   30     27    0.01 -SN     33     30    0.0  0.02      
  120 01/02 00Z   26     23    0.00 -SN     33     26    0.0            
  123 01/02 03Z   25     21    0.01 -SN     26     25    0.0  0.01      
  126 01/02 06Z   24     20    0.01 -SN     26     24    0.3  0.02    0.3
  129 01/02 09Z   22     16    0.01 -SN     24     22    0.0  0.03      
  132 01/02 12Z   20     13    0.00 -SN     24     20    0.0            
  135 01/02 15Z   20     12    0.00         20     19    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
 CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 28DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   90 12/31 18Z   35     25    0.00         35     28    0.0            
   93 12/31 21Z   33     26    0.01 -SN     35     33    0.0  0.01      
   96 01/01 00Z   32     30    0.11 -SN     35     32    0.4  0.12    0.4
   99 01/01 03Z   33     31    0.03 -RA     33     32    0.0  0.15      
  102 01/01 06Z   33     31    0.05 -RA     33     32    0.0  0.20      
  105 01/01 09Z   32     31    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.21      
  108 01/01 12Z   32     31    0.00 -SN     33     32    0.0            
  111 01/01 15Z   33     32    0.00         33     32    0.0            
  114 01/01 18Z   34     33    0.01 -SN     34     32    0.0  0.01      
  117 01/01 21Z   29     25    0.01 -SN     34     29    0.0  0.02      
  120 01/02 00Z   24     19    0.01 -SN     34     24    0.1  0.03    0.1
  123 01/02 03Z   20     14    0.00         24     20    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
 CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 28DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   90 12/31 18Z   37     26    0.00         37     32    0.0            
   93 12/31 21Z   35     28    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.02      
   96 01/01 00Z   34     31    0.15 -RA     37     34    0.2  0.17    0.2
   99 01/01 03Z   34     33    0.03 -RA     34     34    0.0  0.20      
  102 01/01 06Z   34     33    0.04 -RA     34     34    0.0  0.24      
  105 01/01 09Z   34     33    0.01 -RA     34     34    0.0  0.25      
  108 01/01 12Z   34     33    0.00 -RA     34     34    0.0            
  111 01/01 15Z   35     33    0.00         35     34    0.0            
  114 01/01 18Z   36     34    0.01 -RA     36     34    0.0  0.01      
  117 01/01 21Z   35     32    0.01 -SN     36     35    0.0  0.02      
  120 01/02 00Z   28     23    0.02 -SN     36     28    0.3  0.04    0.3
  123 01/02 03Z   24     17    0.00         28     24    0.0            
  126 01/02 06Z   23     16    0.00         28     23    0.0            
  129 01/02 09Z   23     15    0.00 -SN     23     23    0.0            
  132 01/02 12Z   22     14    0.00 -SN     23     22    0.0            
  135 01/02 15Z   24     14    0.00         24     22    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
 CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 28DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   93 12/31 21Z   38     27    0.00         38     37    0.0            
   96 01/01 00Z   36     30    0.07 -RA     38     36    0.2  0.07    0.2
   99 01/01 03Z   37     33    0.04 -RA     37     36    0.1  0.11    0.3
  102 01/01 06Z   36     34    0.07 -RA     37     36    0.2  0.18    0.5
  105 01/01 09Z   35     32    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.19      
  108 01/01 12Z   35     32    0.00 -RA     36     35    0.0            
  111 01/01 15Z   37     33    0.00         37     35    0.0            
  114 01/01 18Z   36     33    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.1  0.02    0.1
  117 01/01 21Z   32     27    0.03 -SN     36     32    0.1  0.05    0.2
  120 01/02 00Z   27     21    0.01 -SN     36     27    0.0  0.06      
  123 01/02 03Z   24     18    0.00 -SN     27     24    0.0            
  126 01/02 06Z   23     16    0.00         27     23    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
 CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 28DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   99 01/01 03Z   30     25    0.00         30     30    0.0            
  102 01/01 06Z   29     27    0.06 -SN     30     29    0.6  0.06    0.6
  105 01/01 09Z   29     28    0.05 -SN     29     29    0.5  0.11    1.1
  108 01/01 12Z   29     28    0.01 -SN     29     28    0.0  0.12      
  111 01/01 15Z   31     29    0.00 -SN     31     29    0.0            
  114 01/01 18Z   28     25    0.01 -SN     32     28    0.0  0.01      
  117 01/01 21Z   22     19    0.02 -SN     28     22    0.3  0.03    0.3
  120 01/02 00Z   18     15    0.04 -SN     28     18    0.8  0.07    1.1
  123 01/02 03Z   14      9    0.01 -SN     18     13    0.0  0.08      
  126 01/02 06Z   10      3    0.00         18     10    0.1          0.1
  129 01/02 09Z    7      0    0.00         10      7    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
 CYUL Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 28DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   84 12/31 12Z   26     23    0.00         26     22    0.0            
   87 12/31 15Z   30     25    0.01 -SN     30     26    0.0  0.01      
   90 12/31 18Z   33     26    0.00 -SN     33     26    0.0            
   93 12/31 21Z   32     25    0.00         33     32    0.0            
   96 01/01 00Z   31     25    0.00         33     31    0.0            
   99 01/01 03Z   30     25    0.00         31     30    0.0            
  102 01/01 06Z   30     27    0.02 -SN     31     30    0.2  0.02    0.2
  105 01/01 09Z   29     28    0.09 -SN     30     29    0.8  0.11    1.0
  108 01/01 12Z   28     27    0.01 -SN     30     28    0.1  0.12    1.1
  111 01/01 15Z   30     28    0.00         30     28    0.0            
  114 01/01 18Z   32     30    0.00 -SN     32     28    0.0            
  117 01/01 21Z   32     29    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.01      
  120 01/02 00Z   27     25    0.03 -SN     33     27    0.3  0.04    0.3
  123 01/02 03Z   22     20    0.04 -SN     27     22    0.6  0.08    0.9
  126 01/02 06Z   18     15    0.03 -SN     27     18    0.7  0.11    1.6
  129 01/02 09Z   13      6    0.00 -SN     18     13    0.0            
  132 01/02 12Z    9      2    0.00         18      9    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
 CYQB Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 28DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   78 12/31 06Z    8      5    0.00          8      4    0.0            
   81 12/31 09Z   12     10    0.00 -SN     12      8    0.2          0.2
   84 12/31 12Z   14     12    0.01 -SN     14      8    0.1  0.01    0.3
   87 12/31 15Z   20     19    0.03 -SN     20     15    0.5  0.04    0.8
   90 12/31 18Z   25     23    0.01 -SN     25     15    0.1  0.05    0.9
   93 12/31 21Z   25     24    0.01 -SN     26     25    0.1  0.06    1.0
   96 01/01 00Z   25     24    0.01 -SN     26     24    0.1  0.07    1.1
   99 01/01 03Z   25     24    0.01 -SN     26     25    0.0  0.08      
  102 01/01 06Z   25     23    0.00 -SN     26     25    0.0            
  105 01/01 09Z   25     24    0.04 -SN     26     25    0.6  0.04    0.6
  108 01/01 12Z   27     25    0.04 -SN     27     25    0.5  0.08    1.1
  111 01/01 15Z   29     27    0.01 -SN     29     27    0.0  0.09      
  114 01/01 18Z   31     30    0.01 -SN     31     27    0.0  0.10      
  117 01/01 21Z   30     29    0.01 -SN     31     30    0.0  0.11      
  120 01/02 00Z   26     24    0.01 -SN     31     26    0.2  0.12    0.2
  123 01/02 03Z   19     15    0.01 -SN     26     19    0.2  0.13    0.4
  126 01/02 06Z   13      7    0.01 -SN     26     13    0.0  0.14      
  129 01/02 09Z    5     -2    0.00         12      5    0.0

 

 

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GFS and euro both on the cutter side for S ON right now. Without real arctic air to work with these systems are having a difficult time tracking far enough south to bring snow to most areas is S ON. We’ll have to see if that changes later on but right now it’s been a slow winter weather wise.

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We will be glad to get something going in the Cobourg / Peterborough region. It is the quietest start to winter in many years. Aprox. 65 mm rain for the month of December and No measurable snow since mid Nov. Does anyone recall a blander start to a winter, and how did that winter turn out?   November looked so promising!

 

I found this Canadian pic on Reddit, anyone identify the locale?

 

bag1c84ks0721.jpg?width=613&auto=webp&s=7f54426f85637088fb7c147f3294b62ba1378643

 

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2 hours ago, Humidex said:

I found this Canadian pic on Reddit, anyone identify the locale?

 

bag1c84ks0721.jpg?width=613&auto=webp&s=7f54426f85637088fb7c147f3294b62ba1378643

 

That's Peyto Lake in Banff National park, Alberta. My wife and I were there this Summer, in early July. There was still snow in the woods along the trail leading to the look-off. It's a very busy tourist spot.

Edited by Astronomer

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The latest GFS text prog has backed off on precip amounts for the Quebec-Windsor corridor. I wonder if that means it's pulling the system a bit further north. Since the FIM8 maps are "Experimental" rather than "Operational", they're among the items temporarily shut down during the US government partial closure. So no more of them until things get back to normal.

Quote

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
 CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 29DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   66 12/31 18Z   36     28    0.00         36     30    0.0            
   69 12/31 21Z   34     31    0.02 -RA     36     34    0.0  0.02      
   72 01/01 00Z   34     33    0.10 -RA     37     33    0.0  0.12      
   75 01/01 03Z   34     33    0.05 -RA     34     33    0.0  0.17      
   78 01/01 06Z   33     32    0.04 -RA     34     33    0.0  0.21      
   81 01/01 09Z   32     31    0.00         33     31    0.0            
   84 01/01 12Z   32     30    0.00         33     31    0.0            
   87 01/01 15Z   31     26    0.01 -SN     32     31    0.0  0.01      
   90 01/01 18Z   29     22    0.00         32     29    0.0            
   93 01/01 21Z   26     18    0.00         29     26    0.0            
   96 01/02 00Z   24     16    0.00         29     24    0.0            
   99 01/02 03Z   23     13    0.01 -SN     24     23    0.0  0.01      
  102 01/02 06Z   22     11    0.00 -SN     24     22    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
 CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 29DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   66 12/31 18Z   35     27    0.00         35     29    0.0            
   69 12/31 21Z   33     28    0.01 -SN     35     33    0.0  0.01      
   72 01/01 00Z   34     32    0.05 -RA     35     32    0.0  0.06      
   75 01/01 03Z   33     32    0.03 -RA     34     33    0.0  0.09      
   78 01/01 06Z   33     32    0.06 -RA     34     33    0.0  0.15      
   81 01/01 09Z   32     30    0.00         33     31    0.0            
   84 01/01 12Z   33     30    0.00         33     31    0.0            
   87 01/01 15Z   31     26    0.00         33     31    0.0            
   90 01/01 18Z   30     22    0.00         33     30    0.0            
   93 01/01 21Z   26     19    0.00 -SN     30     26    0.0            
   96 01/02 00Z   23     15    0.00 -SN     30     23    0.0            
   99 01/02 03Z   22     12    0.01 -SN     23     22    0.0  0.01      
  102 01/02 06Z   21     10    0.00 -SN     23     21    0.0            
  105 01/02 09Z   20     10    0.00 -SN     21     20    0.0            
  108 01/02 12Z   19     10    0.00         21     19    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
 CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 29DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   66 12/31 18Z   37     28    0.00         37     32    0.0            
   69 12/31 21Z   35     31    0.01 -RA     38     35    0.0  0.01      
   72 01/01 00Z   34     33    0.09 -RA     38     34    0.0  0.10      
   75 01/01 03Z   35     34    0.05 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.15      
   78 01/01 06Z   35     34    0.07 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.22      
   81 01/01 09Z   33     31    0.00         35     33    0.0            
   84 01/01 12Z   34     31    0.00         35     33    0.0            
   87 01/01 15Z   35     29    0.00 -SN     35     34    0.0            
   90 01/01 18Z   33     24    0.00         35     33    0.0            
   93 01/01 21Z   30     20    0.00         33     30    0.0            
   96 01/02 00Z   26     16    0.00         33     26    0.0            
   99 01/02 03Z   24     13    0.00 -SN     26     24    0.0            
  102 01/02 06Z   23     10    0.00 -SN     26     23    0.0            
  105 01/02 09Z   23      9    0.00         23     23    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
 CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 29DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   69 12/31 21Z   38     29    0.00         39     38    0.0            
   72 01/01 00Z   37     33    0.03 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.03      
   75 01/01 03Z   37     34    0.04 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.07      
   78 01/01 06Z   37     34    0.06 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.13      
   81 01/01 09Z   36     32    0.00         37     35    0.0            
   84 01/01 12Z   37     32    0.00         37     35    0.0            
   87 01/01 15Z   37     30    0.00         37     36    0.0            
   90 01/01 18Z   33     25    0.00         37     33    0.0            
   93 01/01 21Z   30     20    0.00 -SN     33     30    0.0            
   96 01/02 00Z   25     16    0.00         33     25    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
 CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 29DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   72 01/01 00Z   30     26    0.00         34     30    0.0            
   75 01/01 03Z   30     27    0.01 -FZRN   30     30    0.0  0.01      
   78 01/01 06Z   32     30    0.08 -FZRN   32     30    0.0  0.09      
   81 01/01 09Z   30     29    0.03 -FZRN   32     30    0.1  0.12    0.1
   84 01/01 12Z   30     29    0.01 -SN     32     30    0.0  0.13      
   87 01/01 15Z   32     30    0.02 -SN     32     30    0.2  0.15    0.2
   90 01/01 18Z   29     25    0.01 -SN     33     29    0.1  0.16    0.3
   93 01/01 21Z   18     12    0.00         29     18    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
 CYUL Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 29DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   75 01/01 03Z   30     25    0.00         30     30    0.0            
   78 01/01 06Z   32     29    0.03 -RA     32     30    0.0  0.03      
   81 01/01 09Z   30     29    0.10 -FZRN   32     30    0.0  0.13      
   84 01/01 12Z   29     28    0.01 -SN     32     29    0.0  0.14      
   87 01/01 15Z   32     30    0.00         32     29    0.0            
   90 01/01 18Z   33     31    0.01 -SN     33     29    0.0  0.01      
   93 01/01 21Z   30     25    0.00 -SN     34     30    0.0            
   96 01/02 00Z   21     14    0.00         34     21    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
 CYQB Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 29DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   78 01/01 06Z   25     22    0.00         25     24    0.0            
   81 01/01 09Z   26     25    0.06 -SN     26     25    0.6  0.06    0.6
   84 01/01 12Z   28     27    0.05 -SN     28     25    0.5  0.11    1.1
   87 01/01 15Z   31     30    0.01 -SN     31     28    0.1  0.12    1.2
   90 01/01 18Z   32     31    0.00 -SN     32     28    0.0            
   93 01/01 21Z   29     26    0.01 -SN     32     29    0.0  0.01      
   96 01/02 00Z   16     11    0.00 -SN     32     16    0.0            
   99 01/02 03Z    7      1    0.00         16      7    0.0 

 

 

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The latest GFS text prog has approximately an inch (25 mm) of rain for southern Ontario on New Year's eve and early New Year's day. Lesser amounts of precip and more snow indicated for Ottawa/Montreal/QC...

Quote

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
 CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 30DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   27 12/31 15Z   34     30    0.00         34     30    0.0            
   30 12/31 18Z   35     32    0.05 -RA     36     30    0.0  0.05      
   33 12/31 21Z   35     34    0.30 RA      35     35    0.0  0.35      
   36 01/01 00Z   37     36    0.37 RA      37     35    0.0  0.72      
   39 01/01 03Z   43     42    0.26 RA      43     37    0.0  0.98      
   42 01/01 06Z   44     42    0.02 -RA     51     37    0.0  1.00      
   45 01/01 09Z   36     34    0.00         44     36    0.0            
   48 01/01 12Z   34     32    0.00         44     34    0.0            
   51 01/01 15Z   33     30    0.00 -SN     34     33    0.0            
   54 01/01 18Z   32     28    0.01 -SN     34     32    0.0  0.01      
   57 01/01 21Z   30     25    0.00         32     30    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
 CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 30DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   30 12/31 18Z   35     30    0.00         35     28    0.0            
   33 12/31 21Z   33     32    0.17 RA      34     33    0.0  0.17      
   36 01/01 00Z   35     34    0.41 RA      35     33    0.0  0.58      
   39 01/01 03Z   36     35    0.44 RA      36     35    0.0  1.02      
   42 01/01 06Z   46     44    0.04 RA      47     35    0.0  1.06      
   45 01/01 09Z   36     33    0.00 -RA     46     36    0.0            
   48 01/01 12Z   33     29    0.00 -SN     46     33    0.0            
   51 01/01 15Z   31     25    0.00         33     30    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
 CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 30DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   27 12/31 15Z   35     30    0.00         35     32    0.0            
   30 12/31 18Z   37     31    0.00 -RA     37     32    0.0            
   33 12/31 21Z   35     33    0.16 RA      37     35    0.0  0.16      
   36 01/01 00Z   37     37    0.38 RA      37     35    0.0  0.54      
   39 01/01 03Z   41     41    0.36 RA      41     37    0.0  0.90      
   42 01/01 06Z   51     47    0.07 RA      52     37    0.0  0.97      
   45 01/01 09Z   41     36    0.00 -RA     51     41    0.0            
   48 01/01 12Z   35     31    0.00         51     35    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
 CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 30DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   30 12/31 18Z   38     31    0.00         38     33    0.0            
   33 12/31 21Z   38     34    0.06 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.06      
   36 01/01 00Z   39     38    0.33 RA      39     37    0.0  0.39      
   39 01/01 03Z   40     39    0.50 RA      40     39    0.0  0.89      
   42 01/01 06Z   46     44    0.10 RA      45     39    0.0  0.99      
   45 01/01 09Z   41     37    0.00         48     41    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
 CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 30DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   36 01/01 00Z   27     25    0.00         31     27    0.0            
   39 01/01 03Z   29     28    0.13 -SN     30     27    0.4  0.13    0.4
   42 01/01 06Z   31     29    0.14 -FZRN   31     27    0.0  0.27      
   45 01/01 09Z   32     31    0.20 RA      33     30    0.0  0.47      
   48 01/01 12Z   31     28    0.03 -SN     33     30    0.3  0.50    0.3
   51 01/01 15Z   31     26    0.00         31     30    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
 CYUL Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 30DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   36 01/01 00Z   26     24    0.00         29     26    0.0            
   39 01/01 03Z   27     24    0.01         27     26    0.0  0.01      
   42 01/01 06Z   28     28    0.17 -SN     29     26    0.7  0.18    0.7
   45 01/01 09Z   34     33    0.24 RA      34     28    0.0  0.42      
   48 01/01 12Z   32     31    0.44 RA      34     28    0.0  0.86      
   51 01/01 15Z   33     29    0.04 -SN     33     31    0.3  0.90    0.3
   54 01/01 18Z   33     28    0.00 -SN     34     31    0.0            
   57 01/01 21Z   26     20    0.00         33     26    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
 CYQB Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
 GFS Model Run: 12Z 30DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   42 01/01 06Z   25     22    0.00         25     22    0.0            
   45 01/01 09Z   27     26    0.24 SN      27     25    2.7  0.24    2.7
   48 01/01 12Z   28     27    0.25 SN      28     25    2.8  0.49    5.5
   51 01/01 15Z   30     28    0.13 -SN     31     28    1.5  0.62    7.0
   54 01/01 18Z   31     25    0.01 -SN     32     28    0.0  0.63      
   57 01/01 21Z   22     17    0.00         30     22    0.0 

 

 

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Latest GFS text backs off on precip amounts slightly. More snow in the mix. Again, most airport sites will probably see snow melt on contact due to temperatures. Out in the burbs, away from the heat islands, there may be accumulation. Note that Quebec City is an exception, and is forecast to be cooler than other sites, and should see more accumulation. Here's the edited output...

Quote

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
 CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 31DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   15 12/31 15Z   34     30    0.00         34     30    0.0            
   18 12/31 18Z   35     32    0.03 -RA     36     30    0.0  0.03      
   21 12/31 21Z   35     34    0.24 RA      36     35    0.0  0.27      
   24 01/01 00Z   36     35    0.45 RA      36     35    0.0  0.72      
   27 01/01 03Z   37     36    0.15 RA      37     36    0.0  0.87      
   30 01/01 06Z   40     39    0.04 -RA     43     36    0.0  0.91      
   33 01/01 09Z   34     33    0.01 -RA     40     34    0.0  0.92      
   36 01/01 12Z   33     30    0.00 -SN     40     33    0.0            
   39 01/01 15Z   29     25    0.00         33     29    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
 CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 31DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   18 12/31 18Z   34     30    0.01         34     29    0.0  0.01      
   21 12/31 21Z   33     32    0.13 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.14      
   24 01/01 00Z   34     33    0.33 RA      34     33    0.0  0.47      
   27 01/01 03Z   36     35    0.21 RA      36     34    0.0  0.68      
   30 01/01 06Z   38     37    0.18 RA      37     34    0.0  0.86      
   33 01/01 09Z   34     31    0.01 -SN     38     34    0.1  0.87    0.1
   36 01/01 12Z   32     28    0.00 -SN     38     32    0.0            
   39 01/01 15Z   27     22    0.00         32     27    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
 CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 31DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   15 12/31 15Z   35     30    0.00         35     32    0.0            
   18 12/31 18Z   37     31    0.01 -RA     38     32    0.0  0.01      
   21 12/31 21Z   36     34    0.15 RA      37     35    0.0  0.16      
   24 01/01 00Z   36     36    0.41 RA      37     35    0.0  0.57      
   27 01/01 03Z   38     37    0.26 RA      38     36    0.0  0.83      
   30 01/01 06Z   47     45    0.10 RA      46     36    0.0  0.93      
   33 01/01 09Z   40     37    0.01 -RA     47     40    0.1  0.94    0.1
   36 01/01 12Z   35     31    0.00 -RA     47     35    0.0            
   39 01/01 15Z   33     26    0.00         35     33    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
 CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 31DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   18 12/31 18Z   38     31    0.00         38     33    0.0            
   21 12/31 21Z   38     34    0.10 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.10      
   24 01/01 00Z   38     37    0.27 RA      38     37    0.0  0.37      
   27 01/01 03Z   40     39    0.22 RA      40     38    0.0  0.59      
   30 01/01 06Z   40     39    0.12 RA      41     38    0.0  0.71      
   33 01/01 09Z   36     33    0.02 -RA     40     36    0.1  0.73    0.1
   36 01/01 12Z   35     30    0.00 -RA     40     35    0.0            
   39 01/01 15Z   29     23    0.00         35     29    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
 CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 31DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   24 01/01 00Z   27     25    0.00         32     27    0.0            
   27 01/01 03Z   29     27    0.07 -SN     29     28    0.2  0.07    0.2
   30 01/01 06Z   31     29    0.10 -FZRN   31     28    0.0  0.17      
   33 01/01 09Z   30     28    0.41 SN      31     30    3.2  0.58    3.2
   36 01/01 12Z   31     28    0.00 SN      31     29    0.0            
   39 01/01 15Z   27     22    0.00         31     27    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
 CYUL Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 31DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   24 01/01 00Z   26     24    0.00         29     26    0.0            
   27 01/01 03Z   27     25    0.02 -SN     27     26    0.2  0.02    0.2
   30 01/01 06Z   29     28    0.13 -SN     29     26    0.5  0.15    0.7
   33 01/01 09Z   32     31    0.21 SN      33     29    0.5  0.36    1.2
   36 01/01 12Z   30     28    0.22 SN      33     29    2.3  0.58    3.5
   39 01/01 15Z   33     28    0.01 -SN     33     30    0.0  0.59      
   42 01/01 18Z   30     24    0.00 -SN     33     29    0.0            
   45 01/01 21Z   22     16    0.00 -SN     29     22    0.0            
   48 01/02 00Z   12      5    0.00         29     12    0.0            

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
 Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
 CYQB Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
 GFS Model Run:  0Z 31DEC 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PCPN  SNOW
   27 01/01 03Z   23     21    0.00         23     22    0.0            
   30 01/01 06Z   24     23    0.02 -SN     25     22    0.1  0.02    0.1
   33 01/01 09Z   26     26    0.22 SN      27     24    2.9  0.24    3.0
   36 01/01 12Z   28     26    0.28 SN      28     24    3.5  0.52    6.5
   39 01/01 15Z   31     28    0.09 -SN     31     28    0.8  0.61    7.3
   42 01/01 18Z   28     21    0.00 -SN     32     27    0.0            
   45 01/01 21Z   15      9    0.00 

 

 

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Pretty beefy

hrdps_asnow_neus_28.thumb.png.49f163c407382f057d55c87d0510dc6b.png

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