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Phased Vort

2019 | Caribbean Sea |Tropical & Subtropical Development Disco

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Welcome to the Caribbean Sea Tropical & Subtropical Development Disco 2019 thread.

In this thread, there should only be discussions concerning possible tropical cyclones developments shown by models, long-range development signals from ensemble guidance, and other organic or conventional signals observed or forecasted from the analysis of related data.

Important note: Once a tropical wave, low pressure or stalled out front area is designated as an INVEST by the NHC, the discussion about that area of disturbed weather ceases on this thread and continues on the appropriate thread created once the invest is activated.

Below is an illustrative image of the geographical area covered by this thread, and images regarding the most active climatologically favored months and areas for tropical cyclogenesis.

Caribbean.PNG.f2433586a26962cd45cfc8b1bae1cc14.PNG

 

august.gif.a45421e9f6c5f3342eddb761c86974a6.gifseptember.gif.a7b889cee737e3340e5bbc5a7993a0e4.gifoctober.gif.0d0a80a2989bb499b759dce95f6b0b00.gif

 

General important tropical cyclone information to aid in the discussion can be found on the next page.


Tropical Cyclone Structure & Cycle Info

2000px-Hurricane-en_svg.thumb.png.9cb3246d23dae041402c40126568a771.pngiclr-forecast-webinar-2014-canadian-hurricane-season-june-20-2014-5-638.jpg.8706d46121b7de0f86c7b2ba5492e733.jpg

 

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Folks, please pay attention to a possible tropical cyclone development over the western Caribbean in about 12 days or so from today (05/09/19).

Things may at least get active enough there for a possible invest if land interaction is not too problematic.

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On 5/9/2019 at 1:15 PM, Phased Vort said:

Folks, please pay attention to a possible tropical cyclone development over the western Caribbean in about 12 days or so from today (05/09/19).

Things may at least get active enough there for a possible invest if land interaction is not too problematic.

This is still a valid thought and take, although it may be somewhat delayed and the development or attempt of one may happen on the Pacific side and perhaps cross over to the Caribbean.

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Probably get one of these runs at least once a day.  But as I posted yesterday, MJO actually supports development. 

1091165095_5-216zgfs.gif.e06a14c8c07aeadbb23ccb72973a00dc.gif

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