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Phased Vort

2019 | Gulf Of Mexico | Tropical & Subtropical Development Disco

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Welcome to the Gulf Of Mexico Tropical & Subtropical Development Disco 2019 thread.

In this thread, there should only be discussions concerning possible tropical cyclones developments shown by models, long-range development signals from ensemble guidance, and other organic or conventional signals observed or forecasted from the analysis of related data.

Important note: Once a tropical wave, low pressure or stalled out front area is designated as an INVEST by the NHC, the discussion about that area of disturbed weather ceases on this thread and continues on the appropriate thread created once the invest is activated.

Below is an illustrative image of the geographical area covered by this thread, and images regarding the most active climatologically favored months and areas for tropical cyclogenesis.

GULF.PNG.ae29bfd5deb0b0f44446ab56e7cbaff7.PNG

 

june.gif.d7ab1efe85023d96ef0781538cb93887.gifjuly.gif.c6e3552a38fd6327ddf5e84d2983fd7f.gifaugust.gif.bf019611a759867bc36bd382626776c8.gif

september.gif.a1ea1ab54f29b4100bf7cf2841da064a.gifoctober.gif.85994467f79c569fe70240ac24a29e9d.gif

 

General important tropical cyclone information to aid in the discussion can be found on the next page.


Tropical Cyclone Structure & Cycle Info

2000px-Hurricane-en_svg.thumb.png.f231204e7d16ca0a76713bfb9c2f9336.pngiclr-forecast-webinar-2014-canadian-hurricane-season-june-20-2014-5-638.jpg.c0ed6797360d05f45e96c96eaabdfe26.jpg

 

 

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Folks, please observe the SW GOMEX for imminent tropical development.

Will open an invest thread as soon as possible; invest 91L.

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Posted (edited)

I wonder if this is the same disturbance that was hanging around in the Eastern Pacific last week. Anyway it is up to 60% for development in 2 days. A Air Force reconnaissance flight will be going in on Sunday.

Plan for the day

Quote

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011650
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1250 PM EDT SAT 01 JUNE 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-004 AMENDMENT

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75....(CHANGED)
       A. 02/1900Z                   A. 03/0530Z,1130Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
       C. 02/1600Z                   C. 03/0230Z
       D. 19.0N 95.0W                D. 19.5N 95.5W
       E. 02/1830Z TO 02/2330Z       E. 03/0500Z TO 03/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

NOTE:  THIS PRODUCT, THE TCPOD, OUTLINES TASKED NHC, CPHC, AND NCEP
OPERATIONAL WEATHER-RECONNAISSANCE FLYING REQUIREMENTS.  IT WILL BE
ISSUED DAILY NO LATER THAN 1830 UTC THROUGH 30 NOVEMBER BY THE CHIEF,
AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE COORDINATION, ALL HURRICANES (CARCAH) UNIT OF THE
U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE COMMAND'S 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON.

image.png.59acfb853956f2e114810a4111035023.png

If this manages to stay over open water the SST's as you move up to Texas are between 82-85 degrees.

Source: https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof_tmap.html

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?
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27 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

I wonder if this is the same disturbance that was hanging around in the Eastern Pacific last week. Anyway it is up to 60% for development in 2 days. A Air Force reconnaissance flight will be going in on Sunday.

Plan for the day

image.png.59acfb853956f2e114810a4111035023.png

I support your idea. Seems to be the same energy.

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Posted (edited)

B80E7BE5-EABC-477B-8A4D-A8038A461C6C.thumb.jpeg.7f185e8de10d9ebaf50bac060416fff3.jpeg

Recon was canceled.

Edited by StretchCT
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Struggling but window of opportunity remains open for some development to low end TS

Trying to fight subsidence from the flare up to the southeast. Possibly mid-level dry air off the mountains to the west.

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Interesting feature, visible circulation with a bit of outflow as well. no time to develop into something but has all the earmarks.

G16_sector_gm_band10_12fr_20190702-1228.gif

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and
northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week.
Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts
westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

D4B574AB-9E3D-4CEB-BED3-FD1CCA529653.png

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Hope whatever this thing is is out of this area by the 28th.  I'm heading to Panama City for the week.

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6 hours ago, Qdeathstar said:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and
northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week.
Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts
westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

D4B574AB-9E3D-4CEB-BED3-FD1CCA529653.png

I believe NHC is doing a great job with this.

This trof may spin up a low pressure system over the northeastern GOMEX, and a tropical cyclone has a chance to form and threaten the central GOMEX coast or the northeastern GOMEX coast.

If the energy that develops the tropical cyclone gets left behind as the trof departs, the central GOMEX coast may be the target for a landfalling tropical cyclone.

Our eyes may need to be focused over the northeastern GOMEX when June 11th or so comes around. That may be date when the embryonic stages of a tropical cyclone start to show signs of life; an invest in the works.

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Latest 12Z ECMWF indicates that there is an 80 to 85% chance of a tropical depression forming over the northeastern GOMEX come July 11th and 12th.

1620355711_14-kmEPSTropCyclProbabilityCaribbeanTropDepression20-knots120.thumb.png.d99bbe772998d28dc57b28fe0fba48e6.png

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Off topic for this thread but I have been thinking about all the global record high temperatures we have been seeing. Specifically, wondering what effect if any all that hot weather will have on this hurricane season.  

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Strange to see a low pressure drop south into the Gulf. This has the chance to be a huge rain maker. Yesterday models had it hanging out close to the coast. Plenty of time to watch and track.

image.png.7aede1026d4e4b796174e16edfa85127.png

TEXT:

Quote
Tropical Weather Outlook Text  

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States is
forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
where a broad low pressure area will likely form in a few days.
Thereafter, upper-level winds support some development of this
system while it meanders near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast
through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, 1816 said:

Off topic for this thread but I have been thinking about all the global record high temperatures we have been seeing. Specifically, wondering what effect if any all that hot weather will have on this hurricane season.  

 

I think that the Warmer temps might allow strong hurricanes to get stronger, but if the warming changes weather patterns to cause lower instability in the Atlantic basin and more Saharan Dust coming off of Africa hurricanes might be less likely to form.... 

Edited by Qdeathstar
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Decided to take a look at today's 00Z and 12Z runs of the CMC since it goes further out in time and WOW!!! both runs have something similar. The GFS brings it up the coast also, however the system is not as strong. CMC even waves at @MaineJay on the way by. I know, I know its the CMC, but worth tracking since it has some GFS support. This may not just be a GOM storm.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh114-198.gif.8af608156f0e5da5f34985f14db3b893.gif 

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00Z ECMWF believes the developing tropical cyclone will not get a ride north eastward to the SE CONUS before hitting the central GOMEX coast.

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12z Euro has me concerned here in Covington, La, will be watching this with a close eye. 

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Ukie with a Florida panhandle landfall 980-990mb ish.

But man, those ssts. 

136.track.current.thumb.png.dfefcea0e5b8665d37dd161e7db929fb.png

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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

Ukie with a Florida panhandle landfall 980-990mb ish.

But man, those ssts. 

136.track.current.thumb.png.dfefcea0e5b8665d37dd161e7db929fb.png

The bolded is the key... That could be a game changer...

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Hate to say it, but a storm level event might not be such a bad thing with SST that warm. Long term could certainly use something to pull some heat out of those waters in case a system like Matthew comes along later in the season. Can you imagine if he had had water that warm under him last year?

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9 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Ukie with a Florida panhandle landfall 980-990mb ish.

But man, those ssts. 

136.track.current.thumb.png.dfefcea0e5b8665d37dd161e7db929fb.png

Get ready for that thing where storms  strengthen faster and become stronger than expected to happen again. 

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2 hours ago, risingriver said:

Hate to say it, but a storm level event might not be such a bad thing with SST that warm. Long term could certainly use something to pull some heat out of those waters in case a system like Matthew comes along later in the season. Can you imagine if he had had water that warm under him last year?

Hopefully a weak, slow moving storm could accomplish some cooling, but even then, I'd expect them bounce back quick.  Would certainly be beneficial of it did com things off both for future storms and the dead zone.

90° water doesn't sound refreshing, do/can people even swim in Louisiana's waters?

Latest UKie

917164027_97.track.current(2).thumb.png.2cd8d5eedbce46b4e5289f39873fb555.png

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00Z ECMWF continues to indicate a track westward towards the central LA coast.

 

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ECMWF brings it west with a strong TS landfall near theTX/LA border.

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_7.thumb.png.5b149360c46bb54a6ff4fc46ff3dd95b.png

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Given how models are consistent showing a tropical cyclone developing and NHC´s almost guaranteeing the development of one, with the 80% chance of development in 5 days, it´s tough to imagine a tropical cyclone will not get named.

two_atl_5d0.png.088aafdc40390bb20caf2b61395cb549.png

Quote

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to
move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days.  Some
gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near
the northern Gulf Coast.  Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.  For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center.  Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

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