Regardless of the model, they all show this to be more of an over-running situation (surface low does not get cranking and then climb the coast). This type of system is that which I've opined would be the best chance for MidAtl winter - this case appears to not be an exception.
Looking at H5 on the GFS - I find it a bit hard to believe it has this right though. In particular, it mysteriously takes a piece of Pac jet energy (near Hr96) and instead of progressing it along with the STJ (southe
Please read! One of the best posts in the thread so far!
My guess at this point is that it continues ENE but.... at 500mb, theres energy that gets held back (Boo!) which could have dug into the storm and taken it further north. Theres's the energy over IA that's diving down. If it digs in in the hrs 90-102, then you get more of the top arrow result which brings that new low NE rather than E. If that energy shunts eastward, then that low off NC is wasted (and not in the Canadian sense).