Yes and no, I'm going to refer the Cumberland gap as the "big bend" the low isn't forecasted to transfer energy, its going to be elongated and use the trough as a treadmill to pump moisture up, as the low get out of the apps into a better environment for development it will strengthen, it cant eject straight into the atlantic and there's no HP to push it down or slow it down so it will curve NE.
The "big bend" is the actual argument here, when does it start turning on a more NE trajectory
My first thought was it was just adjusting to where it should be, as the eastern most solution.
Closer look showed that its ideas were in line with the other models. Note the GFS is the northernmost model when comparing these, NAVGEM southernmost.
When the system tries to move forward from here, the NAVGEM maintains a LP emerging off ACY as does the Euro/NAM and probably UKMET (using NAM in Spoiler). NAVGEM is a little faster, which is to be expected. GFS, not com
Lots going on a very hard to keep up but I am asking all to stay on topic or lose your posting abilities. There is no room for anything other than the thread topic, please refrain from any other discussion in this thread
On a serious note, and I am speaking as an emergency manager right now. Anyone who is in the path of this ice storm, you must prepare. There is the possibility of over 1.5" of ice somewhere and any of you in the potential path of this must be ready.
To do so I suggest
Fill up you gas tanks.
Be prepared to be without heat, hot water and electricity for up to two weeks
Fill up on bottles water and keep it some place interior and insulated so it does not freeze.
Very important preparedness advice for the ice storm.
So here's the thing, and I mean this for education purposes. Convection and snowfall ratess work to keep the column cool when the storm is exploding and winding up tight. The problem is this is not the case here. What is happening here is that the atmospheric column is cold. This cold is meeting with warm air being pumped out of the south. Where this meets is referred to as the temperature gradient or baroclynic zone. It is termed this because the meeting of the two air masses is what causes the
On another serious note.
There is going to be a good bit of wind later. Frozen trees and powerlines are now loaded with ice and are in a position to snap and/or fall. With that being said, the danger associated with these are going to significantly increase over the next few hours. To help avoid danger to yourself and family :
Leave all downed powerlines alone and treat them as live. I know this sounds like common sense but too many people think either it instantly shuts off when it f