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snowlover2

January 18-20 2019 Winter Storm

Solstice

A joint album with the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region has been created. Link is below.

 

Message added by Solstice

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3 minutes ago, kyminohio said:

This would be magical. However, I'm not letting myself get excited at this point thanks to what I've learned from you all. It's going to be fun to watch and learn from this point though.

Smart! I will say that models started to really sniff out the general details of yesterday's storms with the Sunday 18z (and then 0z) runs last week. Will definitely be interesting to watch and track. :)

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2 minutes ago, weather_boy2010 said:

For those wondering what the individual Euro ENS members show...

eps_snow_25_mc_41.thumb.png.d39ab2ffd99950d5f49bf83aca313d94.png

eps_snow_50_mc_41.thumb.png.45a2e60dda0ad6c30a729fe19956defc.png

Hope for all of us right now!

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Snowfall totals after last storm. Big chunks filled, but still an obvious area lagging in the OV compared to similar seasonal average locals

sfav2_CONUS_2018093012_to_2019011312.png

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7 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Said this a few days ago and I'll say it again... watch out for suppression here... the Euro images Central Illinois posted demonstrates that well. It's not suppressed on this run, but the way that strong high is positioned freaks me out.

Yeah, I'm watching that HP closely.  No way a high that strong doesn't have an influence on this storm. Anywho, I  don't like being in the bullseye this far out. Not even going to bite until Friday. Let's see how this unfolds!

Edited by NWOhioChaser
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One reason I love these forums is for the ability to go back and look to see which model(s) sniffed the storm and the details out better. The current storm wrapping up was actually sniffed out fairly well by the UKMET and to some degree the FV3. Both of these showed a northerly and more amped trend that some of us balked at. Not that I am saying they're going to be the ones to nail this upcoming storm, just some food for thought...

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 You definitely know something big is possible when ILX is making a pretty big mention of it this far out...

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GEFS from earlier:

 

gefs1.png

gefs2.png

gefs3.png

gefs4.png

Edited by MesoscaleBanding

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12z GFS Op tracks just south of I-70 - good hit for Chicago/southern MI/I80-90 corridor:

 

gfs.png

gfs1.png

Edited by MesoscaleBanding
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12z Canadian is slower & cuts into the lakes - tracks from STL to Toledo:

 

cmc1.png

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31 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

GEM

 

gem_asnow_ncus_30.png

Please no....I cant deal with another 30 mile cutoff from cold rain to 7".

Edited by ryanmkay

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Cranky’s thoughts on potential tracks  

D382519B-D3B0-4647-82F2-391E997B74A1.jpeg

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Several social media groups are starting to go crazy about this storm already, posting the Euro and potential for worse case scenarios. 

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GEFS signal is much further south than the Op...looks similar to the 0z Euro:

 

gefs5.png

gefs6.png

gefs7.png

gefs8.png

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7 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

gefs_ptype_21_ma_144.png

gefs_ptype_21_ma_156 (1).png

gefs_ptype_21_ma_168 (2).png

gefs_ptype_21_ma_180 (2).png

gefs_snow_21_ma_204.png

A few legit Apps Runners...can we finally get one like, I don't know - let me randomly pick one: e19?

Edited by MesoscaleBanding
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2 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

A few legit Apps Runners...can we finally get one?!

Amen! I'd love to see a legit App runner again.

I think this setup is more conducive to a slider unless things change. Devil will be in the details because the gradient is going to be tight, but the snowfall will be plentiful for those who are on the right side of it.

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1 hour ago, Mulaman984 said:

Cranky’s thoughts on potential tracks  

D382519B-D3B0-4647-82F2-391E997B74A1.jpeg

I think a lot of us would be happy with that “potential tracking envelope”.  And there’s decent model consensus  for a good storm with cold to follow. Definitely exciting times.

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Applicable to this storm:

 

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This is pretty impressive this far out!

C373916E-2191-46D8-8C12-7F15E1753F62.png

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2 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

This is pretty impressive this far out!

C373916E-2191-46D8-8C12-7F15E1753F62.png

Wow

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