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Astronomer

January 22-23 Winter Storm Potential

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49 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

A cross between 13 & 14 is my call...

slide0001_image001.gif

https://wxprediction.com/storm_track2_files/slide0001.htm

Agreed.

I am very curious to see if any other modeling picks up on what the GEM has suggested now for the second cycle:

output_Y2zuQY.thumb.gif.a281d58c3a597829d7e12806cbec0556.gif

Normally, I would laugh at it and move on. However, it was previously suggested by the Euro OPS and Control several times, several days ago. It may be worth watching... It could also be useless crap. Time will tell.

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4 minutes ago, weather_boy2010 said:

Agreed.

I am very curious to see if any other modeling picks up on what the GEM has suggested now for the second cycle:

output_Y2zuQY.thumb.gif.a281d58c3a597829d7e12806cbec0556.gif

Normally, I would laugh at it and move on. However, it was previously suggested by the Euro OPS and Control several times, several days ago. It may be worth watching... It could also be useless crap. Time will tell.

I'd much rather have the rain. That would be the icing on the cake this winter being that close to a heavy snow to only get sleet, freezing rain, and some back side snow. Perfect track with a lack of cold air.

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3 minutes ago, easton229 said:

I'd much rather have the rain. That would be the icing on the cake this winter being that close to a heavy snow to only get sleet, freezing rain, and some back side snow. Perfect track with a lack of cold air.

This would be the secondary low developing. The first low passes well west on Tuesday.

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13 minutes ago, easton229 said:

The rich get richer!

See, I'm seeing this as a positive thing though. That is notably further west from the 00z run, and at this distance, I wouldn't want it overhead. Powerful cyclones like this tend to correct west with time. Will this one for sure? No, but I think we are in an okay position right now to be honest.

This is getting a bit OT now, but what the hey... This storm also sets in motion the beginnings of the dislodging of bitterly cold Arctic air:

ecmwf_t2min_conus2_37.thumb.png.b791367742fcd7651e38e094ecb9cf62.png

ecmwf_t2m_anom_conus2_37.thumb.png.2781eeb530b0f203fe18d1cd52a95a8a.png

Now I am getting WAAAAAY ahead of myself though, so I apologize. I do believe this could be the beginnings of some very interesting times, though!

Edited by weather_boy2010

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25 minutes ago, weather_boy2010 said:

See, I'm seeing this as a positive thing though. That is notably further west from the 00z run, and at this distance, I wouldn't want it overhead. Powerful cyclones like this tend to correct west with time. Will this one for sure? No, but I think we are in an okay position right now to be honest.

This is getting a bit OT now, but what the hey... This storm also sets in motion the beginnings of the dislodging of bitterly cold Arctic air:

ecmwf_t2min_conus2_37.thumb.png.b791367742fcd7651e38e094ecb9cf62.png

ecmwf_t2m_anom_conus2_37.thumb.png.2781eeb530b0f203fe18d1cd52a95a8a.png

Now I am getting WAAAAAY ahead of myself though, so I apologize. I do believe this could be the beginnings of some very interesting times, though!

You'll have to excuse my bitterness, just haven't had much to cheer about this season, and I'm not a cold without any snow guy. If its gonna be cold, at least snow otherwise just warm up.

Edited by easton229
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24 minutes ago, MidMichiganWX said:

Side note - can't wait for the snow in New Orleans.

ss.png

:classic_blink:

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42 minutes ago, MidMichiganWX said:

Side note - can't wait for the snow in New Orleans.

ss.png

 

17 minutes ago, easton229 said:

:classic_blink:

To the both of you... Take a look at the "January 20 - ??? Arctic Air" thread. There's been some impressive temperatures being shown in many of the models. Barney colors this time of year is not good! Lol

Edited by weather_boy2010

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4 hours ago, Weather Fury said:

With a track like that, one would think more snow in western PA.  850's?

Cutter?

Note the date of the European picture. The cutter sets up the 25th storm since it develops as a wave from the cold front left over.

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Splitting this up for the secondary which the GFS has shifted way west on the 00z

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1 hour ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

Dates on this need changed to 22 23

Done

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12z GFS seems to have shifted SE by a good margin. Hopefully will keep it a little cooler down here and limit the rain.

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18 minutes ago, easton229 said:

12z GFS seems to have shifted SE by a good margin. Hopefully will keep it a little cooler down here and limit the rain.

I either want this first storm to track further southeast so we get in on that snow band, or I want it to track far enough west to allow the second wave to come west, giving us the opportunity for a good snowfall from that.

I say that as if I actually have a say in the matter... Lol

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1 hour ago, MidMichiganWX said:

Euro brings the low just northeast of Chicago. 

ecm.png

Only another 200 mile SE shift is needed 😂

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0z NAM and GFS are similar, though NAM is several degrees colder. 

0z FV3 is, unsurprisingly, much stronger and further north. 

I want this to stay as weak as possible at this point. 

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