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Snowgeek93

Spring 2019

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Seasonal Thread and Discussion.

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Thanks for starting up the thread!

 

From the winter thread...

 

On 1/9/2019 at 11:43 AM, knorthern_knight said:

  A 12-year offset...

  • 2006 ==> 2018
  • 2007 ==> 2019
  • 2008 ==> 2020

 

On 1/9/2019 at 10:30 PM, Weatherdude1993 said:

I would not be surprised if we get a cold February similar to 2007, but I am definitely not expecting a 2015 repeat. 2007 would be good news for late spring into early fall (Except July that year was slightly colder than normal here). The 2007-08 winter may have had a lot of snow, but it is more the extreme cold of 2014-15 and 2013-14 that bothers me than the snow (I hated March 2008 though).

 

On 1/12/2019 at 3:54 PM, TheRealDavid said:

 

The IRI ENSO forecast, which has a good track record in recent years, might throw a wrench into that 12 year thing. Weak El Nino conditions is expected to continue into summer.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Most years I've looked at with a similar ENSO state or progression, or both, have a warm 2nd half of spring, with a warm spring from start to finish in most years. Summers were all over the place, so it's too early to even make a preliminary prognosis.

The best case scenario would be a 1987 repeat but I think it's going to end up being closer to 2015. Though if you believe that we are in the new post-2016 warmer climate state, then it would essentially be a 1987 repeat.

 

23 hours ago, Weatherdude1993 said:

Most El Nino winters seem to have early starts to spring, but with TWN predicting the cold pattern to go through "deep into March" I am uncertain of a warm first half of spring this year. Given how warm May's have been this past decade (With the exception of 2017) it should not surprise anyone if we get another warmer than normal May.

Summer of 2015 was cool in June, got hot in late July, was mostly cool again in August, and then a hot September.

Summer of 1987 was generally warm in the first half and generally cool in the first half with an early fall.

So yeah, just by looking at both of these years, it is really hard to tell about summer at this point. However, I read somewhere (Don't remember where) awhile back that the solar cycles have been similar to 1991-92 (I hope this doesn't mean that we will see a repeat of summer 1992. It makes 2017 and 2014 look good).

 

22 hours ago, Snowgeek93 said:

I could see Spring being yet again delayed around here. Seems to be a recurring trend no matter what ENSO state we're in. I just hope this summer is nothing like 2015 here as June 2015 was way too cloudy and cool and July and August were nothing to write home about either.

Now a 2016 type summer would suit me just fine. I'm no fan of the heat but the near constant sunshine and drought was awesome!

 

22 hours ago, Weatherdude1993 said:

Even with March 2016 being warmer than normal, we had that rude awakening in April. April 2017 was warm but March 2017 was just as cold as March 2018 but with more fluctuations in the day-to-day temperatures in 2017. We can't seem to achieve a March-April period that is more consistently above normal since 2013, especially between mid-March and mid-April.

El Nino seems to increase the odds of a warmer March (2016, 2010, 1998) or March starts frigid then drastically warms later on (2007, 2003), but April more often goes either way.

Summer of 2015 was only good in mid-late July, one week in mid-August and September. I'd still take it over 2014 though. I actually wore long-sleeve shirts on several days in mid-late July 2014.

Summers with developing La Nina's after El Nino's tend to be especially hot, which 2016 was. As TheRealDavid said, it looks like a weak El Nino could continue into the summer, decreasing the odds of a really hot one. With El Nino eventually weakening as we head into 2020, I honestly think 2020 has a better chance of a hot summer than this year.

 

5 hours ago, TheRealDavid said:

I'd be ok with another cool March-April if we got a warm May-June combo like in 2012. (Edit: let me clarify, I meant May-June 2012 not the full March-June 2012) We've had really warm Mays lately but it's been a while since we've had a super warm June that followed a really warm May.

 

On a different note, I love how we're all talking about spring in the winter thread. :classic_laugh: Shows how boring this winter has been. I guess I'm partly to blame since I brought back the topic. :classic_ninja: Does anyone want to do the honour of starting up the Spring 2019 thread? The US side already did.

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And here's the latest ENSO 3.4 4-week running mean plot. It continues to follow the pattern of 12-years ago with a noticable drop the past 2 weeks.. The winter of 2007-2008 was a doozie. Wonder what 2019/2020 will bring.

 

e34a.png

Edited by knorthern_knight

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The ENSO 3.4 4-week mean fall continues this week. With ENSO 3.4 usually being a "leading indicator", expect the effects to show up this spring.

 

4e34.png

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6 hours ago, knorthern_knight said:

The ENSO 3.4 4-week mean fall continues this week. With ENSO 3.4 usually being a "leading indicator", expect the effects to show up this spring.

 

4e34.png

I am not sure if I am interpretating these graphs correctly, but it seems like years with these drops almost always had early springs in Southern Ontario.

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5 hours ago, Weatherdude1993 said:

I am not sure if I am interpretating these graphs correctly, but it seems like years with these drops almost always had early springs in Southern Ontario.

The current pattern looks like a repeat of 12 years ago...

  • 2006 rose from a bottom in January, to a peak at year-end. There was a slight jog in the summer.
  • 2018 rose from a bottom in January, to a peak at year-end. There was a slight jog in the summer.
  • 2007 fell from a peak in January, to a bottom at year-end.
  • 2019 has been falling from a peak in January...

This raises the question... what was the spring of 2007 like?

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10 hours ago, knorthern_knight said:

The current pattern looks like a repeat of 12 years ago...

  • 2006 rose from a bottom in January, to a peak at year-end. There was a slight jog in the summer.
  • 2018 rose from a bottom in January, to a peak at year-end. There was a slight jog in the summer.
  • 2007 fell from a peak in January, to a bottom at year-end.
  • 2019 has been falling from a peak in January...

This raises the question... what was the spring of 2007 like?

Frigid start to March and then warm second half. Very cold first 18 days of April and then much warmer last 12 days. Generally warm May-June.

Edited by Weatherdude1993

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The ENSO 3.4 continues to follow the pattern of 12 years ago. I.e. after rising from La Nina to El Nino in 2018 (2006) it's dropping in 2019 (2007). The 4-week running mean has dropped to +0.4, which is neutral. Here's the graph with the latest weekly update...

 

e34.png

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Joe Bust-hard-i has an optimistic look for late spring/early summer for us in the Great Lakes region. Under El Nino conditions, for our area, there’s a greater chance of a cooler and wetter growing season so I don't think his forecast will end up verifying. Personally I think he might shift the patch of blue NEward as we get closer to summer. I also think the actual cool anomalies will end up even further north and east than that.

I'm hoping we get a record breaking +NAO so that the whole continent will be flooded with above average heights :classic_love::classic_smile:

temp.seas.mjj.b50.e08.div.005.png
temp.seas.jja.b50.e08.div.005.png
Edited by TheRealDavid
expand thoughts

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1 hour ago, Markj138 said:

LOL @ Joe-Bust-Hard-I :classic_laugh:

Lol I wish I was that clever but I got the name from somewhere else. In all seriousness, if you watch his daily videos (I occasionally do) you can see that he's a talented met, but we all know he let's his personal biases get in the way.

Back on topic, I'm rooting for his forecast to verify, since I like warm summers. Although you can get a very warm MJJ period in an El Nino, odds are it'll be on the cooler side so his forecast has a high chance of busting. A normal outlook would actually be one of the best outcomes.

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14 hours ago, TheRealDavid said:

Joe Bust-hard-i has an optimistic look for late spring/early summer for us in the Great Lakes region. Under El Nino conditions, for our area, there’s a greater chance of a cooler and wetter growing season so I don't think his forecast will end up verifying. Personally I think he might shift the patch of blue NEward as we get closer to summer. I also think the actual cool anomalies will end up even further north and east than that.

I'm hoping we get a record breaking +NAO so that the whole continent will be flooded with above average heights :classic_love::classic_smile:

temp.seas.mjj.b50.e08.div.005.png
temp.seas.jja.b50.e08.div.005.png
2

With El Nino re-developing, I wouldn't be surprised if the summer of 2019 ends up similar to 2014 and 2009. It seems like every four or five years since 1992 we get a complete non-summer (2014, 2009, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992). 2017 almost made the cut but was saved by those glorious last few weeks of September.

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8 hours ago, TheRealDavid said:

Lol I wish I was that clever but I got the name from somewhere else. In all seriousness, if you watch his daily videos (I occasionally do) you can see that he's a talented met, but we all know he let's his personal biases get in the way.

Back on topic, I'm rooting for his forecast to verify, since I like warm summers. Although you can get a very warm MJJ period in an El Nino, odds are it'll be on the cooler side so his forecast has a high chance of busting. A normal outlook would actually be one of the best outcomes.

In developing El Nino years, at least a couple of months between April and November tend to be well below normal, as we saw in 2018 with April and November; 2015 with June and August; and 2009 with June, July, and October. Summer was surprisingly hot last year for a year with a developing El Nino. Developing La Nina years are more likely to avoid extreme cold during an April to November period (2016, 2010, 1998).

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7 hours ago, Weatherdude1993 said:

With El Nino re-developing, I wouldn't be surprised if the summer of 2019 ends up similar to 2014 and 2009. It seems like every four or five years since 1992 we get a complete non-summer (2014, 2009, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992). 2017 almost made the cut but was saved by those glorious last few weeks of September.

I hope not. Those Summer's sucked around here, especially 2009 which was way too cloudy and cool for my liking. 2014 was better as at least there was some more sunshine and wasn't 2015 a developing El Nino as well? I don't recall that summer being too bad around here either and there was a decent amount of sunshine which is the most important factor to me all times of the year. Last summer had a solid June and first half of July before turning sour into later July and much of August.

Personally I hope El Nino dies off during the spring/summer as I don't want to deal with another crappy winter next year but time will tell.

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5 hours ago, Snowgeek93 said:

I hope not. Those Summer's sucked around here, especially 2009 which was way too cloudy and cool for my liking. 2014 was better as at least there was some more sunshine and wasn't 2015 a developing El Nino as well? I don't recall that summer being too bad around here either and there was a decent amount of sunshine which is the most important factor to me all times of the year. Last summer had a solid June and first half of July before turning sour into later July and much of August.

Personally I hope El Nino dies off during the spring/summer as I don't want to deal with another crappy winter next year but time will tell.

2015 was a slightly cool summer but I wouldn't classify it as a non-summer, especially considering the second half of July, a generally sunny August (Although still somewhat cool), and very warm September. 1997's developing El Nino was similar although we had a much warmer June and much cooler August-September than in 2015.

All those summers I mentioned above were terrible, but July 2009 and all of 1992 especially stood out.

Edited by Weatherdude1993

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13 minutes ago, Weatherdude1993 said:

2015 was a slightly cool summer but I wouldn't classify it as a non-summer, especially considering the second half of July, a generally sunny August (Although still somewhat cool), and very warm September. 1997's developing El Nino was similar although we had a much warmer June and much cooler August-September than in 2015.

All those summers I mentioned above were terrible, but July 2009 and all of 1992 especially stood out.

2015 wasn't bad in terms of temps but it was lacking in humidity. I like my summers both warm and humid so it was a weak summer in that regard. I think El Nino summers tend to be less humid than La Nina summers.

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5 hours ago, TheRealDavid said:

2015 wasn't bad in terms of temps but it was lacking in humidity. I like my summers both warm and humid so it was a weak summer in that regard. I think El Nino summers tend to be less humid than La Nina summers.

To me, June was horrible that year. Worst I have lived through. July and August were far from the best, but not the worst either.

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59 minutes ago, Weatherdude1993 said:

To me, June was horrible that year. Worst I have lived through. July and August were far from the best, but not the worst either.

If we pretend that meteorological summer is July-September, 2015 would've had a pretty average summer. That warm season (May-Sept) as a whole wasn't horrible, it just got ruined by a cool June. Of course, I'd take a summer like 2016 or 2018 over that of 2015 :classic_smile:

A thing to watch. 2018 was notable for having a stout +NAO with the resultant above average heights all across the mid-latitudes. The NAO is progged to go positive but can it hold through summer? While a strong +NAO wouldn't be a saviour, it can ameliorate a pattern caused by unfavourable tropical forcing.

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10 hours ago, Weatherdude1993 said:

To me, June was horrible that year. Worst I have lived through. July and August were far from the best, but not the worst either.

June 2015 was indeed awful. Way too much cloud cover and rain which ruined my favorite month of the year. The longest days of the year should be sunny and dry as well.

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TWN released their spring outlook. They predict a much warmer start than last year in Ontario though somewhat up and down the rest of the season into summer.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/2019-spring-forecast-canada-next-three-months-temperature-precipitation-sneak-peek-at-summer?fbclid=IwAR29weTQLB75ZUdY2vRj3lwzcgR7PFAGJQvJdzi4rlMnSElNB13bwkatwcM

Edited by Weatherdude1993

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Just give me sun and I'll be happy lol

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7 hours ago, Snowgeek93 said:

Just give me sun and I'll be happy lol

A dry spring would be awesome. It would increase the odds of another hot summer.

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On 2/25/2019 at 12:38 PM, Weatherdude1993 said:

TWN released their spring outlook. They predict a much warmer start than last year in Ontario though somewhat up and down the rest of the season into summer.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/2019-spring-forecast-canada-next-three-months-temperature-precipitation-sneak-peek-at-summer?fbclid=IwAR29weTQLB75ZUdY2vRj3lwzcgR7PFAGJQvJdzi4rlMnSElNB13bwkatwcM

https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2019-02-14-march-april-may-2019-temperature-outlook-the-weather-company

TWC has a more optimistic outlook for Southern Ontario (if we assume the above average anomalies don't end at the border lol). Off the top of my head, TWC's seasonal forecasts have verified better for the Great Lakes region in recent years compared to TWN. Maybe we'll actually have a warm spring this year???

Me personally, I'm leaning towards cooler and wetter as El Nino is predicted to play a bigger role this spring. So could this be the year in which TWN will have the more accurate forecast for our area?

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12 hours ago, TheRealDavid said:

https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2019-02-14-march-april-may-2019-temperature-outlook-the-weather-company

TWC has a more optimistic outlook for Southern Ontario (if we assume the above average anomalies don't end at the border lol). Off the top of my head, TWC's seasonal forecasts have verified better for the Great Lakes region in recent years compared to TWN. Maybe we'll actually have a warm spring this year???

Me personally, I'm leaning towards cooler and wetter as El Nino is predicted to play a bigger role this spring. So could this be the year in which TWN will have the more accurate forecast for our area?

One thing I can say right now is March is looking increasingly 2014-like. The mid-month warmup just seems to get less and less intense each day when I look at the models, although snow cover might be partially responsible for that. As for April, pretty much anything will be tropical compared to last year. May, I don't care as much what it does since the 2010s have been a warm decade for May's anyways.

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