Okay @UTSwiiniiso I see I was summoned about the Jax rule. I did a bit more research so that I could more properly explain everything to the board. To understand the rule, first we have to understand how cyclogenesis works. As a quick refresher, this is how it works. So you need a temp gradient, also known as a baroclynic zone. From here, what happens is physics begins to take over to convert potential energy into kinetic energy. It does so through the processes associated with the temperature g
Ensemble sensitivity indicates that the models will likely suffer significant run to run variation.
This is based off a combination of GFS+CMC ensembles.
Nearly half of the variance is explained by models placing a low INVOF of OBX.
the differences can mostly be traced back to energy diving down from the arctic. The way you read these, if actual heights end up higher in the warm colors and lower in the cool colors, EOF 1 (low near OBX) is more likely to verify.
Most models on recent runs have been keeping this possible storm out to sea.
What I believe needs to change on future runs is where the cold front that swings by the region on the Jan 24-25th time frames stalls. It looks like most models have been stalling that cold front near Bermuda, which as result, sets up the baroclinic zone near Bermuda as well or just the west of it. That baroclinic zone, where the most intense temperature gradient is found, along with the stalled out cold front, act