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Poconosnow

January 27-28, 2019 | Clipper Winter Storm

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This period needs to be watched for a possible benchmark to Coastal hugger type storm 

strong signal on ensembles last few runs 

Miller AB hybrid?

AC58BC69-A0CC-4455-8092-ADB6822CAA78.png

F4715255-8B7B-469C-9998-EFAD7A36C797.png

4C67D9FD-B923-4FE9-B152-A017DC2929EF.png

32082BC7-36D6-4DC0-83A4-EBBE8FF4A2D5.gif

DEF7BA66-D025-410B-9A05-655170C0ABC1.gif

 

 

Edited by Poconosnow
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POC and I decided this time period needed a thread. For now, we are disregarding Operation runs - posting only "general idea" information. 

 

Capture.PNG.cb9b15789664aee7310ac7975ad9eea0.PNG

9nhwbg_conus.gif.05774f9935d137f91af737501a8cb8c8.gif

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Excellent thread my friends, let me just say that the ops have been showing "something" on and off so it's not like they dont have an Idea at all.

Edited by shaulov4
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POC! Great to see ya bud!

 

Here's a loop of East Asia. Lots of energy pushing through - similar to the January 19-21 period.

gfs_z500_vort_ea_fh0-102.thumb.gif.836e0602ee5743b94eb4b28aae2388c9.gif

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The 12Z GEFS Ensembles look pretty good for this timeframe, I think?

gfs-ens_z500a_us_34.png

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6 minutes ago, Weather Badger said:

The 12Z GEFS Ensembles look pretty good for this timeframe, I think?

gfs-ens_z500a_us_34.png

Not bad at all - take a look (if you want) at the northern hemisphere view - look downstream and upstream (R and L) - you'll see a Rex Block in the Atlantic, and what looks to be a potentially teleconnected ridge over AK/Yukon. 

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6 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Not bad at all - take a look (if you want) at the northern hemisphere view - look downstream and upstream (R and L) - you'll see a Rex Block in the Atlantic, and what looks to be a potentially teleconnected ridge over AK/Yukon. 

Is there a Northern Hemisphere view on TT?  If so how do I find it?

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20 minutes ago, Weather Badger said:

Is there a Northern Hemisphere view on TT?  If so how do I find it?

go to the site, choose "Regions" - take a look around. 

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12Z XXX-GFS Has a 968 MB just outside of BM

 

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

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14 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

go to the site, choose "Regions" - take a look around. 

Thanks, found it.  Although not sure what I'm looking at. LOL.  For the most part I'm not bad at grasping the concepts but have a hard time translating that to reading the maps and understand what I'm looking at.

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12Z EURO has 981 MB at Cape Hatteras NC at H192

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

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Euro looks good this far out...

E9F58FF0-B011-45E9-AEBA-1341E7A375E2.png

F512F41F-27C1-4635-B289-7464B1222BEF.png

Just now, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z EURO has 981 MB at Cape Hatteras NC at H192

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

Beat me to it! Lol!

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Just now, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z EURO has 981 MB at Cape Hatteras NC at H192

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

Verbatim extrapolation would be  just over BM I believe. 

Op run candy fun - but we'll ride ENS for now

 

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Oh my God.... 

I do not think anyone should see that...

Save that for 3 days out...

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2 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Verbatim extrapolation would be  just over BM I believe. 

Op run candy fun - but we'll ride ENS for now

 

Beast off the coast, signals are there

 

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The shade is already starting on cranky for tweeting it.

 

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2 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

POC and I decided this time period needed a thread. For now, we are disregarding Operation runs - posting only "general idea" information. 

 

Capture.PNG.cb9b15789664aee7310ac7975ad9eea0.PNG

9nhwbg_conus.gif.05774f9935d137f91af737501a8cb8c8.gif

Give me a few to look up Mizzou's IRE & look at the WPC day 7 scores.

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12z ECMWF has it snowing on the gulf around then. 3" or so in New Orleans and a stripe in the FL panhandle / SE Alabama, just about where Hurricane Michael tracked. Panama City and Dothan, AL with 5" 

Par for the course this winter. 

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I've got texts for ya!!! ;O) J/K

 

I did see Crank mentioning this time period.  Once I saw the Euro and GFS OP, I assumed this bugger would be created.  Have fun, peeps!

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1 minute ago, RobB said:

I've got texts for ya!!! ;O) J/K

 

I did see Crank mentioning this time period.  Once I saw the Euro and GFS OP, I assumed this bugger would be created.  Have fun, peeps!

LOL - I was thinking of making a "hey Rob, can you give me text for MDT? Thanks" - :classic_laugh:

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Mizzou's IRE shows GEFS trending lower by this period.

current.gefsplume.gif.339fc5023f119a8b2c03cd28c18370b5.gif

After some dismal day 7 scores, we are seeing a recovery. I'd say during this period we see a drop also.

1968951393_TSER_PMSL_MRDG_DAY7_ANOMCORR(1).gif.c7db6f87f7d951524618f24d425ac4e2.gif

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8 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

12z ECMWF has it snowing on the gulf around then. 3" or so in New Orleans and a stripe in the FL panhandle / SE Alabama, just about where Hurricane Michael tracked. Panama City and Dothan, AL with 5" 

Par for the course this winter. 

Oh man that would be awesome. Let's see some gulf effect snow. 

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Based off the 00z GFS - but the idea of our Atlantic side braking mechanism is being signaled with what I see as a Rex Block "downstream"

REX.thumb.PNG.852df7c337b52688c3235a8a8f52cc94.PNG

When one looks just past this date range, that block seems to go full blow Omega. Busy times ahead. Winter all in one month?

 

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12Z EPS looks good to me for Noon on Monday the 28th but I heard it favored East and OTS after that.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_9.png

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