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Poconosnow

January 27-28, 2019 | Clipper Winter Storm

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43 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Thanks for recommending it.

I won´t do it by pinning it to the top of the page because it´s very odd to do that to my own post, :classic_laugh:

If I copy and paste it in a message can you pin it to the top and say credit to you and I wrote it so you won't feel odd about it :classic_wink:

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2 minutes ago, Chris2333 said:

If I copy and paste it in a message can you pin it to the top and say credit to you and I wrote it so you won't feel odd about it :classic_wink:

It´s ok. I really appreciate it.

Perhaps, since a couple of you want it recommended, @MaineJay who is in the thread right now could do it instead.

Thanks again, though.

Edited by Phased Vort
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6 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

It´s ok. I really appreciate it.

Perhaps, since a couple of you want it recommended, @MaineJay who is in the thread right now could do it instead.

Thanks again, though.

The-A-Team.jpg.f30eaccc8f68b7abf12695dd809245b2.jpg it's on @MaineJay now :classic_wink:

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Weather channel forecast has Dover Delaware 45f for 27/28/29 January with rain 29 and then temperatures drop to 28f for high on 30/31 partly cloudy 

Edited by Storms R’ US

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5 hours ago, KENNYP2339 said:

I hope that the jet pattern starts to slow down for the month of Feb, at least then we can get better info for the 4+ day range

These patterns (current) tend to be rather unpredictable, yet likewise. Seemingly offer the strongest storms. I wonder if it's because there is so much energy in the atmosphere that this sends the jet streams flying. Perhaps it also means this energy can be converted (energy neither created nor destroyed) into the bombing LP we see in these patterns. 

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3 hours ago, Winter_warlock said:

 It's weird on some models it shows a bigger storm on 30th to 31st. So not sure if it's an actual different storm or just a difference in timing if a day or two

I would say timing in all honesty 

3 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

Thanks for recommending it.

I won´t do it by pinning it to the top of the page because it´s very odd to do that to my own post, :classic_laugh:

I would have, but I'm common folk round these parts :FlagWave:

Come to think of it kinda  everywhere... :hmm:😉 

Edited by Uscg ast
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18z GFS loop.

Spoiler

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh102-174.gif.4036b07c5f64758cc4d9fc313f4b85cf.gif

 

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News watch 16 which I never really watch.  Is calling for Williamsport to get 1.82" of rain tomorrow.

Which with 6" of snow isn't good.

mod please delete wrong thread...Thank you.

Edited by Pawatch

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Finally got a negative trough.  :6::dance4::yahoo:

760288911_finallyanegtrough500.thumb.png.3d83d89095fd53574d7aa668754b9d19.png

 

but....:28_2_8v:

833862920_finallyanegtroughsfc.thumb.png.006507ecedb5e4bd4e68e0eb9cd32923.png

 

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Its got BSR support could be a quick 6-12 along the Mid-Atlantic, I'm interested.

 

image.png.d7442b6c40baa4988b06de23a22833f1.png

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image.thumb.png.11cc535d280cfd5b449f486c29e18184.png

This is exactly why one cannot count this is out, extreme uncertainty 

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22 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

image.thumb.png.11cc535d280cfd5b449f486c29e18184.png

This is exactly why one cannot count this is out, extreme uncertainty 

Yeah that would be a inland storm 

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5 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

But not many early on last year either unless I'm forgetting one or 2.  I just remember the big 4 March 2018 storms.

Without any doubt, winter storm Grayson (January 2-6) was the strongest storm last winter. Grayson bottomed out at 948 mb and deepened 53 mb in 21 hours, which absolutely shatters bombogenesis criteria (1mb/hr for 24 hours).

To my knowledge, not a single meteorological bomb occurred near the east coast so far this winter. 

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8 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Without any doubt, winter storm Grayson (January 2-6) was the strongest storm last winter. Grayson bottomed out at 948 mb and deepened 53 mb in 21 hours, which absolutely shatters bombogenesis criteria (1mb/hr for 24 hours).

To my knowledge, not a single meteorological bomb occurred near the east coast so far this winter. 

Have we gone under 980 on or along the East Coast?

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22 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Without any doubt, winter storm Grayson (January 2-6) was the strongest storm last winter. Grayson bottomed out at 948 mb and deepened 53 mb in 21 hours, which absolutely shatters bombogenesis criteria (1mb/hr for 24 hours).

To my knowledge, not a single meteorological bomb occurred near the east coast so far this winter. 

Because the two streams have not played nice with each other. To bomb, you need the two streams to combine which thus allows the divergence needed for this type of rapid cyclogeniss 

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This is the most wintry forecast so far this winter i’ve seen so far, hopefully it’s a sign to come 

5DD4E445-4AF7-49C3-A086-F5A0DF0175B4.png

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56 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

This is the most wintry forecast so far this winter i’ve seen so far, hopefully it’s a sign to come 

5DD4E445-4AF7-49C3-A086-F5A0DF0175B4.png

Maybe for where you live in Delaware we will be 50 and 60 Wednesday/Thursday with rain, 38 for the following 2 days and back to mid 40s with rain 29 Jan with 30/31 in upper 20s cloudy.

Edited by Storms R’ US
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I’m no NOAA meteorologist by any means, but I am able to decipher every model available to me, and with that being said I think it’s safe to say this storm will most likely not come to fruition as previously thought.  I think the one to watch is the 1/30 threat   Could throw down a few inches here and there. 

6F905019-9E61-4F0C-8B69-E970670516B0.png

4CF5A74A-C571-4605-BC6A-0164203E7515.png

Edited by PA road DAWG

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The northern stream energy, clipper, on the recent runs, has become stronger than the southern stream GOMEX energy.

So we can see the clipper being the dominant feature in that ballet, which changes the dynamic of the outcome.

A stronger clipper could cut over central or eastern NY, and as a result, drag a cold front through areas to the east, even if the southern stream energy from the GOMEX does interact, it would be a warm interaction.

To get a colder outcome, the southern stream would need to be the dominant one, and off course, track closer to the coast instead of tracking near Bermuda following the possible location of a stalled out cold front.

So, this time frame may end up being a clipper for the region, or a warm phasing system for eastern areas.

And we still also run the risk of needing to deal with the two different threads for maybe only one system overlapping the time frames for both threads.

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19 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

If you want to go the paid route for $12.99 a month you can go with Ryan Maue's site https://weathermodels.com/

His site has great graphics.   He posts some "freebies" from his site on his twitter feed:  https://twitter.com/RyanMaue

TropicalTidbits.com has some and Is free 

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14 hours ago, Uscg ast said:

Because the two streams have not played nice with each other. To bomb, you need the two streams to combine which thus allows the divergence needed for this type of rapid cyclogeniss 

That's exactly my point. The jet streams 'haven't played nice' so far this winter and they likely won't later this winter either.

Realistically there only needs to be one exception to the rule to make most of us happy, but the odds are against that happening.

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15 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Have we gone under 980 on or along the East Coast?

Nope, of the winter storms named by TWC, the strongest storm so far was Winter Storm Carter (982 mb). Carter primarily impacted the plains states rather than the East Coast.

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