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Poconosnow

January 27-28, 2019 | Clipper Winter Storm

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Two lows, one on each side of Florida, eventually they become one....

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👀😳

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I'll post hr192 and then I call it a night, good to see the storm is there.

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Stalled...

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Looks warm but I wouldn't worry about temps right now... this might be something special brewing

I lied I'll give you one more

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The eps showing a rather highly impressive signal for a coastal low at d8

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3 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

Night All

I believe we are all suffering from storm fatigue and being let down on a storm that looked so promising and then was not. Thanks for the play by play. Good signal for a storm. 

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CMC is seeing it too.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

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Usually when they come from the south is when we get our big storms but it’s far away and a lot to happen

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I’m liking this timeframe as well .. decent plume of moisture streaming from the gulf .. many models in agreement and looks like some blocking upstream to help slow or stall and keep cold air around just enough to perhaps get a decent snow event in the snow starved areas .. bares watching .. thank you for the images folks! 

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Thinking there's a good chance the JAX rule may be in play for this storm. Just a hunch. 

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3 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

Thinking there's a good chance the JAX rule may be in play for this storm. Just a hunch. 

What is the Jax rule ?

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3 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

What is the Jax rule ?

 

To crudely paraphrase @UTSwiinii ... when there's upstream convection in Jacksonville, Fl-- look out

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37 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

 

To crudely paraphrase @UTSwiinii ... when there's upstream convection in Jacksonville, Fl-- look out

Could you elaborate a little more? I tried looking it up.

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Has anyone seen crankys latest post ?  

Well, we all know by now he’s one of the most straight forward posters out there.   He shows no bias towards any which solution one way or the other.  what I gathered from his post is that he tends to think there’s good support for a coastal storm, and references how good Atlantic blocking is starting to emerge.  Too early for specifics, but the signal is strong.   

And then there’s JB......every storm is either ‘93 or ‘78 related lol....cmon man 

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  • Haha 3

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11 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Has anyone seen crankys latest post ?  

Well, we all know by now he’s one of the most straight forward posters out there.   He shows no bias towards any which solution one way or the other.  what I gathered from his post is that he tends to think there’s good support for a coastal storm, and references how good Atlantic blocking is starting to emerge.  Too early for specifics, but the signal is strong.   

And then there’s JB......every storm is either ‘93 or ‘78 related lol....cmon man 

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There's money in predicting cold and snowy, selling clients data that boost the price of nat gas futures. (with JB cherry picking the data )

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13 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Has anyone seen crankys latest post ?  

Well, we all know by now he’s one of the most straight forward posters out there.   He shows no bias towards any which solution one way or the other.  what I gathered from his post is that he tends to think there’s good support for a coastal storm, and references how good Atlantic blocking is starting to emerge.  Too early for specifics, but the signal is strong.   

And then there’s JB......every storm is either ‘93 or ‘78 related lol....cmon man 

43AB1245-A575-4A94-BC7B-D0B8EB913C66.png

 

19 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

Based off the 00z GFS - but the idea of our Atlantic side braking mechanism is being signaled with what I see as a Rex Block "downstream"

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When one looks just past this date range, that block seems to go full blow Omega. Busy times ahead. Winter all in one month?

 

While it's nice to see other pros agree - it's not as if we, in here, have not been keen to the downstream ( I do know that you realize this, I'm just reinforcing) 

I told JD, on a side PM, that IF this happens - game on. He concurs. 

In re: Jax Rule. The Jax Rule is a corollary that states:

If, in winter, there is convection near the Big Bend to Jacksonville corridor, and there is cold air up here, then expect a winter storm within 24-48 (usually closer to 24-36 hours). 

Others, such as @Uscg ast have taken to expand on the premise. 

Remember though that, as with any other corollary, it is not perfect. But it is highly verified and is reliable downstream (as it were) guidance that may be found to be useful when discussing possible storms. Therefore, if you have he time, check the AFD out of JAX in days leading towards a storm (today they just mention possible non severe T storms Thursday) as you look for "clues" as to what is a more likely outcome. 

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49 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Has anyone seen crankys latest post ?  

Well, we all know by now he’s one of the most straight forward posters out there.   He shows no bias towards any which solution one way or the other.  what I gathered from his post is that he tends to think there’s good support for a coastal storm, and references how good Atlantic blocking is starting to emerge.  Too early for specifics, but the signal is strong.   

And then there’s JB......every storm is either ‘93 or ‘78 related lol....cmon man 

43AB1245-A575-4A94-BC7B-D0B8EB913C66.png

He really is the worst (JB)

Edited by Snowadelphia
  • Hell NO! 1

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image.thumb.png.f196f44cfb227d62f17f7ce9b5ed467d.png

Euro Control

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Mean Both look inside the benchmark 

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Latest from WPC ..fwiw...

 

WPC says hello there MR. COASTAL! 

5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

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2 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

image.thumb.png.f196f44cfb227d62f17f7ce9b5ed467d.png

Euro Control

image.thumb.png.4793656cf6824e098196115212223b78.png

Mean Both look inside the benchmark 

How are temps? That seems to be the fight

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image.png.100a182a7cd065f985553b28ea05636b.png

Obviously, this storm like does not hit my area, but I must admit, I wouldn't mind following a coastal storm.  Been a while.  I want to check out the Times Square cameras and see some blizzarding :)

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19 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

How are temps? That seems to be the fight

Better than the two storms that we are in between at the moment

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