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Poconosnow

January 27-28, 2019 | Clipper Winter Storm

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8 minutes ago, RobB said:

image.png.100a182a7cd065f985553b28ea05636b.png

Obviously, this storm like does not hit my area, but I must admit, I wouldn't mind following a coastal storm.  Been a while.  I want to check out the Times Square cameras and see some blizzarding :)

The B word would be interesting but it will definitely depend on any cold air. I don’t see High to the north just out west. Will wait and see how moderate temperatures get after some cold after the rain storm on 23/24

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4 minutes ago, AceGikmo said:

Better than the two storms that we are in between at the moment

Things looked great for this past storm and we saw how things changed for the worse. 

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7 minutes ago, AceGikmo said:

Better than the two storms that we are in between at the moment

Indeed

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What I find interesting is nearly every model has some version of a storm along the coast AND the disturbance over the great lakes.  Pretty impressive for most models to have both features at a week plus.  

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Happy at the signals the models are picking up. However, I'm not getting too excited. Had my bubble burst too often this year :P

@UTSwiinii - Thanks for that description on the 'JAX rule'. I had wondered about that as well.

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17 minutes ago, Storms R’ US said:

Things looked great for this past storm and we saw how things changed for the worse. 

Things did look marginally good at times, but this is a very different setup with a much better signal imo

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12Z CMC has it but another interior snow storm.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

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12Z CMC snow map

 

gem_asnow_neus_32.png

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8 minutes ago, AceGikmo said:

Things did look marginally good at times, but this is a very different setup with a much better signal imo

With the storm potentially coming from the Gulf and nosing North, how does the cold look at this time frame. Seems we get another shot of cold air come Fri and Saturday, but looks to me it's already retreating a bit by end of this period. Something to obviously watch and observe at this point

 

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4 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z CMC has it but another interior snow storm.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

Track should not be a concern right now, we are still in the 6-10 day range. Most important is the signal is there. Track and Precip Types will flip flop here for awhile

 

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At this stage of the game surface maps are virtually useless.  This h5 from the cmc is a thing of absolute beauty....fully phased closed off ULL at 510 dekameters.  Both the gfs and fv3 miss the phase 

86CFE981-1B67-4F99-900A-0119A5F02036.gif

Edited by PA road DAWG
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I love how this always feel like people are tracking a wave of inbound bombers.  It feels like London during the Blitz.  You see a signal out there... somethings definitely out there.  Then you confirm general direction.  They're heading over the channel... yes, yes, definitely over the channel.  Definitely towards "us" in the royal sense of that term.  Someone is going to get it.

But... who?  Where is the actual target?

Members here pore over their scopes for days and days and days.  It's pretty impressive.

I'm betting that some of you are former sonar or radar operators.  Jonesy, reading the signals.  Reading the tea leaves, confident that the distant noises ARE something.

And once in a while... you are right.  That's pretty cool.  A lot more fun than watching the "one month" view, which basically reverts to mean after four or five days out.

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4 minutes ago, bambooirv said:

The Weather Channel is already showing Euro model imagery, seems a bit early to me https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-01-21-south-snow-weekend-forecast-northeast-potential-storm

Seems like they’re taking the gfs approach for now 

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1 minute ago, shaulov4 said:

Double whammy?

image.png.8c9b1f4eff51106dbbc3257e04b66ba1.png

May have to make a thread for this timeframe

Yes - please do, the same signals that indicate this one, will still be there for this next one. 

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Wow.  This pattern is loaded, literally.  One after the next.  Going to be a tiresome next few weeks.  You’d imagine at least one is a doozy for the mid Atlantic ?

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1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

Wow.  This pattern is loaded, literally.  One after the next.  Going to be a tiresome next few weeks.  You’d imagine at least one is a doozy for the mid Atlantic ?

Agreed something has got to give

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12Z XXX-GFS brings SLP from deep in GOM and just misses OTS as it comes up the coast.

 

fv3p_z500_mslp_us_fh138-168.gif

Edited by paletitsnow63

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3 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z XXX-GFS brings SLP from deep in GOM and just misses OTS as it comes up the coast.

 

fv3p_z500_mslp_us_fh138-168.gif

OTS is a good place to be ATM

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7 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

OTS is a good place to be ATM

Big storms come northwest? :classic_ninja:

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2 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

OTS is a good place to be ATM

No it’s not... a tucked sub 970 low kissing Atlantic City holding its place 7 days in a row on the models is a good place lol 

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1 hour ago, Storms R’ US said:

Things looked great for this past storm and we saw how things changed for the worse. 

To play off an old baseball adage that i just made up

"Snowmentum is only as strong as tomorrow's starting model. "

 

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I agree no one wants to be in a bulls eye right now.  We need to be about 4-5 days out, given this winter's history and model consistency :dance2:

Edited by avsguy

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These storms are so delicate in nature though.  A slight mistimed phase and you go from 1-2 feet to nothing.   Last storm was simple.  Running a boundary then just pinpointing the mix line 

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3 minutes ago, avsguy said:

I agree no one wants to be in a bulls eye right now.  We need to be about 4-5 hours out, given this winter's history and model consistency :dance2:

Fixed it ^^

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