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Poconosnow

January 27-28, 2019 | Clipper Winter Storm

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Looking good for this far out.

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17 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

image.thumb.png.63da9ccebcc505464350cb8a1a4a7a38.png

Euro is miss this go around

 

My feeling with the models these last couple of weeks...download.jpg.8916b1162ce3b07871a264c0ef99c693.jpg

Edited by Chris2333
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10 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

I like the HP's west and north

Those are good.  I'm not liking the kicker over the lakes (if you are looking for a coastal storm).  We will have to see how the models handle that over the week.  

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14 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

I believe the record will show that WE beat the crowd on that deal. :sorcerer:

Where is the black knight when you need him?

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Yea the euro does a whiff with the phase.  H5 looks messy compared to 00z.  Expect the waffling to continue 

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Just watched JB’s video and we might as well close this thread after what he has to say....it’s been jinxed.

time to go watch ‘93 YouTube videos......

Analog 1993 superstorm snow map I couldn’t help notice the date ... mid March .. worse sun angle compared to if this were to come to fruition in reference to JB’s remarks 

29F11B41-7930-44F0-A8F3-456605464F9F.jpeg

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2 hours ago, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z CMC snow map

 

gem_asnow_neus_32.png

Throw it in the garbage

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Tough to measure because I got home late, had to sleep, then be up and out early for 6am dayshift.  But I had around 5” and it was puking snow when I got home, them switched over, compacted, then switched back to snow and got about 1” on top of the ice.  I’d say 7ish.   Of course the local airport broke a rain record that day ...smh

i also broke my snowblower.  The auger won’t spin anymore.  Going to get a new one tomorrow.  It broke during Stella 2017, had to repair, now it’s broke again. So I’m done fixing.  Time for a new one.  

Check the sheer pin, most likely what’s broken.

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5 minutes ago, Jblizz68 said:

Analog 1993 superstorm snow map I couldn’t help notice the date ... mid March .. worse sun angle compared to if this were to come to fruition in reference to JB’s remarks 

29F11B41-7930-44F0-A8F3-456605464F9F.jpeg

93 comparison, sun angle? Geez we really need to get some snow on the coast or we are going to start seeing sandy comparisons pretty soon....

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12z runs were pretty meh, except for the cmc.  Eps was considerably further off shore than 00z.  Less phases in the mix 

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2 hours ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Nothing makes me angrier then when he brings up the great white hurricane. That storm, three super vort maxes with monster phases. It is the standard. Snowed from Pensacola, FL to Canada.

Should be left out of comparison until something comes close. If it ever does.

It's like Lima Beans.  Nobody like lima beans.  So, when someone asks you what kind of food you don't like, don't say lima beans.  It's a given you don't like lima beans.  And that's what really grinds my gears. 

image.png.a5366486a249be1c9073cfc6141c5255.png

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2 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

image.thumb.png.63da9ccebcc505464350cb8a1a4a7a38.png

Euro is miss this go around

That is alot of energy. 

2 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

I believe the record will show that WE beat the crowd on that deal. :sorcerer:

We most definately did. A defining call. I choose to remember that one and not the one where everyone led me to predict so poorly last week. 

On a side note, crow is delicious. 

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53 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

12z runs were pretty meh, except for the cmc.  Eps was considerably further off shore than 00z.  Less phases in the mix 

Damn it JB

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12Z NAVGEM at H180

 

navgem_z500_mslp_us_31.png

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Just now, paletitsnow63 said:

12Z NAVGEM at H180

 

navgem_z500_mslp_us_31.png

Not a good look. 

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image.png.486ee0f5162b79c05349c3e5fdfabff7.png

GFS leaves the low and brings in a frontal system 

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Man the GFS run as a whole is just depressing....

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Give this storm some time. It's 6 days away, the waffling will happen till the last second. 

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20 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

Man the GFS run as a whole is just depressing....

The fv3 has a 981monster a few miles east of NYC

07AAC754-F1D2-49B1-A48B-4BF18E2D6573.gif

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Just now, PA road DAWG said:

The fv3 has a 981monster a few miles east of NYC

07AAC754-F1D2-49B1-A48B-4BF18E2D6573.gif

What's 24-48h prior look like? Specifically JAX region. :classic_ninja:

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19 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

What's 24-48h prior look like? Specifically JAX region. :classic_ninja:

The Coloration is coded differently than we are used to seeing.   That shade of blue is 1-2 inches qpf 

C6AA64A6-9BA4-4B52-878F-D0C99EFE7095.gif

Edited by PA road DAWG

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1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

 

C6AA64A6-9BA4-4B52-878F-D0C99EFE7095.gif

What's the source so I can look? Tidbits got to 96 and got stuck.

24-48h would be hour 138 and hour 114, but you only went back 9 hours to 153. 

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6 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

What's the source so I can look? Tidbits got to 96 and got stuck.

24-48h would be hour 138 and hour 114, but you only went back 9 hours to 153. 

https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model#

its the “gfs” on this website.  They’ve already dropped the original gfs and incorporated this one.  It’s legit

Edited by PA road DAWG
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28 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

The fv3 has a 981monster a few miles east of NYC

07AAC754-F1D2-49B1-A48B-4BF18E2D6573.gif

Wrong.  Not a 981MB but a 961MB!

18Z XXX-GFS

 

fv3p_z500_mslp_us_27.png

fv3p_z500_mslp_us_28.png

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