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Poconosnow

January 27-28, 2019 | Clipper Winter Storm

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3 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Wrong.  Not a 981MB but a 961MB!

18Z XXX-GFS

 

fv3p_z500_mslp_us_27.png

fv3p_z500_mslp_us_28.png

Geez! ...good eye.  The map I use is tough to see.  Believe it or not I actually did a double take and was like is that a 6 or an 8....naturally I selected the lesser of two evils.  

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18Z XXX-GFS

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

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1 minute ago, Weather Fury said:

H5

IMG_1659.GIF

Not the cleanest h5 I’ve seen but I’ll take it.  Trough doesn’t go negative until after the benchmark so That’s why precip mostly likely isn’t thrown back NW like others of its kind.  Take surface with a grain of salt though 

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18Z XXX-GFS snow map

fv3p_asnow_neus_31.png

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Just now, PA road DAWG said:

Not the cleanest h5 I’ve seen but I’ll take it.  Trough doesn’t go negative until after the benchmark so That’s why precip mostly likely isn’t thrown back NW like others of its kind.  Take surface with a grain of salt though 

I thought the same. Still learning. Wanted to make sure.

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5 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

18Z XXX-GFS snow map

fv3p_asnow_neus_31.png

Boomshakalaka

Looks like that aligns with the JAX rule as depicted in the earlier frames of FV3 I posted. 😉

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3 hours ago, Miller A said:

It's like Lima Beans.  Nobody like lima beans.  So, when someone asks you what kind of food you don't like, don't say lima beans.  It's a given you don't like lima beans.  And that's what really grinds my gears. 

image.png.a5366486a249be1c9073cfc6141c5255.png

I am neither ashamed nor embarrassed to say I love lima beans.  Always have.  Well, okay, maybe just a little embarrassed.

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I'm just glad at this point all models are basically hinting at something in the area.  That's the best we can ask for right now......wait......whaaa......???? Delaware just got 12+ on that FV3 run?  Lock it in storm is coming!! (.......Joking old man winter!) :ColdBreath:

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This also has strong BSR and EAR support 

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45 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Geez! ...good eye.  The map I use is tough to see.  Believe it or not I actually did a double take and was like is that a 6 or an 8....naturally I selected the lesser of two evils.  

What’s 20mb amongst friends?

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42 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

18Z XXX-GFS snow map

fv3p_asnow_neus_31.png

You would think a storm that strong would have some higher totals. Maybe the speed.

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8 minutes ago, Weather Fury said:

You would think a storm that strong would have some higher totals. Maybe the speed.

That's the least important factor this far out.... also new gfs hasnt been the most reliable

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From cranky...  appears the bsr is pretty spot on with low placement 

Screenshot_20190121-193140_Twitter.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

That's the least important factor this far out.... also new gfs hasnt been the most reliable

I'd encourage you to go back and look at some of the 250h+ images of FV3 for the event we just had because they seem pretty darn close to what transpired. 😉

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1 hour ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Wrong.  Not a 981MB but a 961MB!

18Z XXX-GFS

 

fv3p_z500_mslp_us_27.png

fv3p_z500_mslp_us_28.png

If it’s cold enough that could be a nightmare for the east coast especially the coastal areas 

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Organic forecasting is hogwash. Everybody knows it. 

*runs out of room before man from Missouri shows up* 

Just now, Storms R’ US said:

If it’s cold enough that could be a nightmare for the east coast especially the coastal areas 

Man, you must be a riot at dinner parties. 

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When are they shutting down the og gfs ?   This week right ?

Edited by PA road DAWG

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7 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Organic forecasting is hogwash. Everybody knows it. 

*runs out of room before man from Missouri shows up* 

Man, you must be a riot at dinner parties. 

That’s what you get from a fed worker. In the bullseye this early is a bad thing. This is the only cold solution at the moment, I think.

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Sorry I have to be that guy, but I Saw this online and got the goosebumps.....any similarities ?

3F6658BD-0C71-4B11-BE0E-FCAA1B610AAD.png

950B1668-9C5B-440F-9C06-2AF2F63A5922.jpeg

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51 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

When are they shutting down the og gfs ?   This week right ?

The info I have is that the upgrade got postponed to March 2019. It was supposed to occur now in January. Info from weathermodels.com .

It's probably due to the government shut down. 

As far as this storm is concerned, I envision 3 possible tracks. 

  1. Just inland some miles from the coast
  2. Near benchmark track (just inside or just outside)
  3. Out to sea (no impacts to anyone or just for extreme eastern Long Island, extreme eastern southern New England and eastern Maine).

That´s if the storm does track all the way north to the Gulf of Maine.

From what I see from the BSR, this may be a case where the storm does impact the Mid-Atlantic, including Delmarva, NJ, and NYC metro including Long Island, but the storm tracks eastward out to sea once it reaches southern Delmarva;

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13 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Sorry I have to be that guy, but I Saw this online and got the goosebumps.....any similarities ?

3F6658BD-0C71-4B11-BE0E-FCAA1B610AAD.png

950B1668-9C5B-440F-9C06-2AF2F63A5922.jpeg

Something happened between 3/12 & 3/16/93??  😁

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Great post thank you!

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